0.5ppr superflex dynasty trade question

General Fantasy Football Talk
#1

Superflex 0.5ppr dynasty

What are your thoughts on this one? I love Wilson, but I’d be downgrading at two positions quite drastically in my opinion. Yes I’d be getting rid of the risk of Hill, but I’d be taking on the risk of Damien Williams getting replaced in the draft.

Trade away:
Phillip Rivers
Tyreek Hill or AB
James Conner
2020 2.07

Receive:
Russell Wilson
Robert Woods
Damien Williams
2021 1st

My Team:
QB: Mayfield, Rivers, Foles, Flacco, Smith, McCoy
RB: Mixon, Conner, Guice, White, Burkhead, Dixon, Thompson, Wilkins, Buck Allen, Boone, Wade
WR: Adams, AB, Hill, Davis, Moncrief, Reynolds, Dorsett, Jordy
TE: Kelce, Ian Thomas, Jonnu Smith
DST: Bears
Picks: 2019 2.07, 2.10, 3.03, 3.10

#2

Probably a pass for me personally because I like Kupp over Woods on that offense. Like you alluded to, I actually think they draft an RB in this class. Williams is just some other guy on a good offense. Nothing I see from him when I watch him play suggests he has any above average talent.

Wilson is great but Rivers will last you another 2-3 years anyways. Just hold out and try and draft a QB in the next class IMO.

And you’re basically selling Hill for pennies. HOnestly if you own Hill, you have to hold and hope he makes it out without a lifetime ban and just a suspension tbh.

#3

I would pass. I would think the 2020 1st from the other team would help out, but I still think you are getting rid of too much. I might consider AB on your side WITH his 2020 1st instead of the 2021. Then you are at least getting a bit younger and sticking with what should be a strong offense.

But at this moment, there is not enough Hill info to know. And if it is just noise not news, you will be super sad.

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#4

For me, it’s not close, and not just because Seattle has turned into one of the league’s heaviest run offenses (I still do like Wilson, especially in superflex). I’d hold onto Rivers, and instead be looking to trade Flacco (or at the most, Foles). But I’d also pass because the 2021 first is too far down the line, and Damien Williams is only the Chief-du-jour: whoever is the Chiefs’ RB will succeed, and I don’t see DWill holding on; he’s a sell-high in my notebook. Conner is also a “keep” for me, and while we might see Tyreek get suspended, he’s not a guy to trade away. All in all, it’s not a balanced trade for multiple reasons. I’d suggest considering countering with AB and Flacco (or Foles) for Wilson, just to see what kind of reaction you get, but I don’t think your WR corps can take the hit: Corey Davis has all the talent, but the offense is hit-or-miss right now. Hope this helps.

#5

@MikeMeUpp @octoberland @Sack_Exchange ok thanks for the replies. Another offer came my way…

Phillip Rivers
Tyreek Hill
James Conner

for

Drew Brees
Michael Thomas
Chris Carson
Kareem Hunt

Thoughts?

#6

To me this seems a lot like a push, so I would pass. I would only make this trade if you liked the other players better, and I see that boiling down to your thoughts on Hill. From the upside, you would get a Brees / Thomas stack and knowing that your WR is definitely playing this season. I like the upside of Hill much, much more. But his situation is definitely murky at the moment. So it really amounts to do you want to roll the dice on Hill.

Pushing through the rest, I think everything else is a wash. I like Carson much more than most people. I also am hesitant on Conner. Hunt, while talented, I do not see sticking in CLE. Conner is probably the better talent / situation of all three for now, but I am not sure Carson is that far behind. QB is a push for age, but Rivers is potentially better for fantasy as I like his entire option set (not specific pieces) better. But it is hard to deny the potency of NO.

In the end, for me, it amounts to do I roll the dice on Hill. FWIW, Thomas is one of the few WRs I would consider for Hill at this moment, but ONLY because of the known situation for Thomas. In your case, I am not sure the gap of giving up Conner for Carson will be as great as passing on Thomas if Hill is suspended. But we do not know that will be his outcome. I think in a vaccuum Hill>Thomas in FF if they both play 16 this season.

If you want to keep safe, take the trade. If you are okay with the risk, stay where you are.

Just my convoluted thoughts, but I hope it helps out.

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#7

@octoberland @Sack_Exchange ok so I ended up making the trade, but had another one come in right afterwards which I accepted…so I think evened things out for me…

I started with:
QB: Mayfield, Rivers, Foles, Flacco, Smith, McCoy
RB: Mixon, Conner, Guice, White, Burkhead, Dixon, Thompson, Wilkins, Buck Allen, Boone, Wade
WR: Adams, AB, Hill, Davis, Moncrief, Reynolds, Dorsett, Jordy
TE: Kelce, Ian Thomas, Jonnu Smith
DST: Bears
Picks: 2019 2.07, 2.10, 3.03, 3.10

and I ended up with:
QB: Mayfield, Wilson, Foles, Flacco, Smith, McCoy
RB: DWilliams, Carson, Hunt, Guice, White, Burkhead, Dixon, Thompson, Wilkins, Buck Allen, Boone, Wade
WR: Adams, MThomas, AB, Woods, Davis, Moncrief, Reynolds, Dorsett, Jordy
TE: Kelce, Ian Thomas, Jonnu Smith
DST: Bears
Picks: 2019 2.07, 2.10, 3.03, 3.10

After both trades, I ended up moving

Rivers
Conner
Mixon
Hill

for

Russell Wilson
Michael Thomas
Robert Woods
Chris Carson
Damien Williams
Kareem Hunt
2021 1st

I feel pretty good about the trades and how my team ended up. I upgraded at QB, I upgraded at WR (Hill to MT is a wash and also picked up Woods as my WR4), but I definitely downgraded at RB, but picked up solid depth. I wasn’t sold on Conner holding off Samuels and I got rid of the threat of losing one of my stud WRs to suspension. I think overall it was a win, now just gotta work some other trades to nab a more solid RB and hope some of my RB depth hits.

What do you guys think?

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#8

Firstly, I like what you did in general. Your QB and WR are set which is great. However, your RB situation makes me a little nervous. There is a lot of risk in there. I would see if you can move some pieces to get a better RB. I personally like Chubb and think his value is depressed at the moment. I would see if you can find someone high on one of Williams / Hunt / Guice + a decent WR or that 2021 1st and try to get someone you can depend on. Not to bum you out, but I really like Mixon as a prospect moving forward in CIN.

Also, treat all this as thinking out loud as opposed to moves you must make. I am not telling you to do anything, just voicing my thoughts and where I would be thinking if I were in your place.

But do not take this as an ‘all is lost’ situation. I do not think that. It is more of a security thing. I also know that there are few and far between when it comes to someone owning a backfield. IMHO I see three people who could/should be doing that on your squad which is fantastic: Williams / Carson / Guice. All you really need is one of them to take the reigns.

Maybe package the aforementioned RBs, or Woods or AB with some picks? Like AB (or Woods + Davis) + 2019 2.07 & 2021 1st for K. Johnson + 2019 3rd & 2020 1st. This class is deep enough that giving up your second to move back should not kill you and getting a 2020 1st is where you want to be. You can add in WR depth in this draft. I do get that K Johnson might not be the guy either, but then you have 4 dudes trying to get that larger RBBC role. And you would also have guys who should be well in the RB2 category.

Obviously give up less if you can, but I would start there. I would be looking to add in K Johnson or N Chubb, with Chubb the preferred. I would ping them and take their temperature. I would move picks where possible. I always take the known over the unknown. Especially when the unknown has never taken an NFL snap.

Again though, there is not wrong with your squad. I am just vomiting thoughts :slight_smile:

I hope this helps!

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#9

@octoberland I really appreciate your well thought out answers and responses.

Yeah, I really like Mixon as a prospect too and it was tough giving him up, but I was having a tough time moving Conner and Hill and thought I got a very solid return for those guys. I dont really intend on keeping my roster the way it is now, RB upgrade is definitely something I want, but I won’t be completely hopeless if my RBs stay the way they are. I’ve got a lot of upside guys who can be legit if they keep their jobs lol.

Like you said, I’m very strong at WR. One of the main reasons I made those moves was to get MT. I think he will be very easy to move and will be able to use him to upgrade massively at RB. I will be looking to move AB or MT or Woods to upgrade RB.

Worse case scenario, I go into the season with this roster and I’ll be fine with it, but I’ll have my fingers crossed for the draft that no RB gets drafted to KC.

What are your thoughts on Mack? I kinda like him for a cheaper guy who should maintain control over his backfield. I like Chubb just like you do and I’m fine taking him on with Hunt on my bench. Might take a stab at Bell, what do you think about him in NY?

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#10

I would bet you could move AB for anyone you mention straight up. If not, I would throw in picks. IMHO, I would not move MT unless you cannot get deals done with the other guys. I think MT is still early in his arc. If you were moving him, I would definitely push for a high end RB and include picks from your end to make it happen.

As another note, if you can acquire 2020 1st rounders it should be a great get. So consider tossing in your 2019 2.07 & 2021 1st for 2020 1st. Or at least I would pursue that angle.

I am not sold on Mack. I feel like he is not any more secure and likely a little less. He has had chances and not really delivered. Rumblings are that he is a placeholder in the big scheme of IND. No one really knows, but that is what I have heard. For me, it matches with what I see in his game: better than average but not great. Just my take. I would definitely have him well after Chubb and K. Johnson.

Bell I like but I do not see him doing what we expect from him. I think the NYJ are better than what many are saying, but they are not PIT. It is not even a quality assessment, but a team assessment plus they just landed Gase. NYJ is not built to do what PIT does on offense. I know there are stats proving Gase RBs have done well, but it you watched MIA games it was not really due to them being strong schemes. It was a lot of busted plays and massive chunk yardage games. Bell is better than the other RBs he has had, but I personally think it is dangerous to pencil in ‘the same old Lev Bell’ production.

I firmly believe that Bell, while good, was great due to PIT. I am not sure his style / success is as high in other places. I know he is not too old, but I would still look at Chubb / K Johnson before Bell, but I like Bell over Mack. Talent to me is always the deciding factor.

Does that help? Again, just my views and certainly more suggestions than mandates. As you noted, you could stay put and still have a pretty darn solid squad. Not a bad position to be in!

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#11

Yup, that helps, thanks for the detailed responses!

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#12

You are welcome!