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10th Pos in draft thoughts. Who would you pick?


#1

12 team league, full PPR scoring. I think picking a strong RB & WR at the beginning is important but remaining flexible is just as important. Here are the players that I usually see around these turns and brief thoughts. Who would you go after in each round?

1.10 - OBJ/ Saquon/ Julio/ Melvin/ Hunt (Rarely OBJ or Saquon will fall to me & Julio/ Melvin is on average who I choose between)

2.3 - Hunt/ Allen/ Melvin/ M.Thomas (If someone didn’t slight reach for Allen or Hunt in first round this is what is usually available)

3.10 - Diggs/ Baldwin (knee injury)/ Hill/ Howard/ Mixon (Howard & Mixon are on average the two that I have to choose from but Baldwin has been falling)

4.3 - Guice/ Drake/ Collins/ D. Thomas/ Tate/ Robinson/ reach on Landry (the usual culprits around this time)

5.10 - Wilson/ Collins/ Crabtree/ Watkins/ Ajayi (Wilson starts looking tempting around here but I could also build skill players)

6.3 - Brees/ Hogan/ Lewis/ Ingram/ Penny (I usually go Lewis or Hogan here)

7.10 - Penny/ RJII/ Crowder/ Cobb (I usually get lost around here, usually pick Crowder, very few times I pick RJII, Penny falls rarely to here)

8.3 - Luck/ Burton/ Burkhead/ Kupp/ R. Anderson (I pick Burton here so I can have a decent TE)

9.10 - Luck/ Mack/ Big Ben/ Rivers/ Stills (I go for Stills to add some depth and hope one of those QBs are around on the turn if i dont have one yet, Luck falls sometimes)

10.3 - Big Ben/ Rivers/ Ryan/ Mahomes (I go for Rivers because I expect Chargers to be high powered this year)
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14.3 (Between my QB pick and here is when I am looking for high upside guys, Doug Martin/ Hines/ Carson/ Wilkins/ Tyrod/ Callaway etc.

Then my last two picks are DST & K.


#2

This year I prefer to go RB / WR in the 8-12 pick range due to the talent level drop off at RB late in the 3rd.

If Gordon is there I’d take him and pair him with AJ Green if he fell to 2.03, if he’s not there I’m okay with Michael Thomas as my top WR and then I can target based on tiers in the 3rd and 4th rounds. to fill out my WR and RB positions. I think I’d pass on Wilson as well, and grab a guy like Collins or Crabtree (depending on how you’ve built your roster to this point).

Brees in the 6th isn’t awful value in a 12 team, but I’d probably wait even longer and look to the 9-12 range for the Luck/Ryan type QB.

I love Crowder this year, especially with Doctson already dinged up.


#3

When picking from the 10th, I’ve mostly done a zero RB strategy for the first 4 rounds at least cause that’s where the value has come. Not a fan of mixing RB and WR cause haven’t really seen much value there. When doing 1.10, choices are mostly between OBJ/Gordon/Hopkins type.

The zero RB strat is definitely high risk high reward so if that variance is not something you’re comfortable with, I would just take Gordon at the 1.10 and then try and grab someone like hunt/Cook on the turn. I just don’t like the WR/RB or RB/WR open. It’s too weak and leaves you vunerable at both positions. I’d much rather totally lock down on position and have a positional advantage there vs other teams and then hammer out high risk high reward players at the position I am lacking at in later rounds. I’ve loved the Zero RB teams I’ve done this year just given how much value there is at WR. Normal 1st round WR talents are frequently falling to the 2nd. So if employing a Zero RB, I would pick as follows:

1.10 - OBJ / JJ
2.3 - MT/Allen/Adams/AJ green
3.10 - Diggs. I’m staying away from Baldwin cause of injury. Whenever doctors say “hopeful” you take the # of weeks they say and add on a few more. I think you can also get Arob around this area.
4.3 - Cooper if hes around. If not, Potentiall Kelce or Ertz. If not then could take first RB here with Guice
5.10 - Watkins
6.3 - If Penny is falling to here, You should 100% be grabbing him regardless of what strategy you employ. This is pretty insane value. Don’t buy the Pete Carson hype. That is bogus. If Penny isn’t here, then i’d go with Hogan/Ingram although I’m pretty sure there are better options than that from what I’ve seen
7th round and later - Crowder is garbage. Also, this is where you want to hammer out high upside RBs like Jones/williams, Mack, Burkhead. Don’t mind a reach for Burkhead here to start him as your RB2 given how strong WR core is. In fact, when going zero RB, I think getting Burkhead is almost a must so reaching a round early for him to secure I have no problems with at all. Still wouldn’t take a QB. I’d just wait on double digit rounds for someone like Rivers.

11th round and later - Take other peoples handcuffs in hopes in case their starters go down (i.e. Wilkins, Kelly, Samuels, conner, etc), if not, just drop them for whoever is performing once season starts. If one of them hits, you pretty much win your league given how strong your top WRs are.


#4

If Odell Beckham Jr. is there, grab him quick and don’t look back. Grab an RB in the 2nd round, Freeman is a nice bounce back candidate. Stefon Diggs in the 3rd sounds about right.


#5

I’m curious… what exactly leads you to believe the Carson hype is bogus? This is a coach that has proven in the past he couldn’t care less what the perception is regarding his personnel moves. When he gave Russell Wilson the starting gig over Matt Flynn it was purely based on the camp and preseason performances.

I’m not saying it’s Carson’s job yet, and I’m cautious any time I hear the kind of butt-kissing that Carroll has done with Carson, but it bears monitoring as he’s being given every opportunity to win the job in camp. It’s also important to note that despite all the buzz, Carson continues to be a late round pick, while Penny seems to be teflon in the face of a potential committee… Penny is a back I’m avoiding at his current price until he can prove that he’s making any strides towards taking the job.

Thoughts?


#6

This is also a coach who has proven in the past that he is a pathological liar and you can’t take anything he says during training camp at face value. It was the same non sense last year with Rawls and Lacy. For all we know, he could be doing all this to try and motivate penny. I’m not even going to begin to try and guess his intentions.

Matt Flynn was a 7th round pick and is and always was trash and has never accomplished anything in the NFL. Dude was trash in college and the guy had never started a game in the NFL despite being in the league for 5 years when he joined seattle. Zero cost. Russell Wilson was a 3rd round draft pick and clearly a more talented QB and incredibly accomplished college prospect. He was someone they were looking to build around.

Rashaad Penny was the 2nd running back off the board and drafted in the 1st round with incredible college production. They reached and took him in the 1st despite having a plethora of needs in all other aspects of the team. He is an incredibly talented runner and there has been no negative news coming out of camp about him. It’s just all this Carson hype about how jacked he looks. NFL is full of jacked athletes, that doesn’t mean anything to me. Chris Carson wasn’t even the starting running back on his college team. He shined last year cause his competition was Rawls, Fat Lacy and Prosise who couldn’t even get on the field. Any RB can look like a stud. I was a huge fan of carson last year but aside from one decent game in the regular season what else is there to see? Penny has a full college career of production and film we can point to.

These two situations are not even closed to comparable and to think they are would be foolish. Buy into all the hype you want but I’ll gladly fade Carson everywhere. I’ve sold all my carson shares where I can on the hype of Pete Carol.


#7

Doc and his accuracy. MMU and them manifestos. Love it! Carson’s hype w/Prosise’s sightings and another bust pick by the SeaHawks? ALways headlines. All unknown’s there in that back field. But slowly and surely, we are realizing Brandon Marshall is the fantasy guy here. Just take a peek at that season w/the Jets when we though he was finished. Nothing to play for last year, maybe he’s got something left in the tank. And there’s not many QBs in the league, like Wilson, who can make things happen. Not touching another hawk for now, unless return yards are involved, Lockett is a must than. Latest depth charts as him doing both, w/Penny helping on KRs.

Ju seen Ronald Jones’ tape, and realized his sitatuion. Make things interesting w/Penny’s slipping stock.


#8

I didn’t mean to sound combative either, I just feel like you make good points and value the counter argument.


#9

Did not take anything as combative here. Appreciate the good conversation back and forth as always.

I just don’t trust a thing he says. Even last year after Carson shined in the pre-season and was CLEARLY the better back, what did he do? Still started and committeed fat lacy and rawls.


#10

Yea… I’d be lying if said I didn’t burned by Lacy once before, so I feel that one close to home.


#11

AJ green is usually there and is picked up after Cook & Fournette go off the board. M.Thomas is often there along with Allen and these other guys on my 2nd round pick. Is AJ green that much better overall than the other 2?


#12

Whenever I do the zero RB strat I always feel iffy about the RBs I pick up later in the draft but maybe I wasn’t doing it properly. The best I’ve done not picking an RB in the first 2 rounds though was 2WR into Howard & Guice.
Around 4.3 Kelce, Ertz, Cooper are usually gone in the 3rd round for me so it would more than likely be Guice.
At 6.3 some of the other choices around here besides Hogan & Ingram are Edelman, Wentz, Fuller, Woods, Reed, Rudolph & Royce Freeman, on rare occasion Ajayi or Delanie.

If I don’t get a good RB by 6.3 because I’ve been trying for value is when I start getting discouraged, again, maybe I’m not doing it right. Are Mack, Burkhead, and Rookies decent enough for RB depth on their own?


#13

thats not really zero RB. You can’t just pick 2 WR and then get scared and pick a middling rb. You have to actually commit to the strat and pick up later RBs once you’ve securely dominated the WR position with absolute studs. And you’re not supposed to feel comfortable with the RBs you choose. The whole point of zero RB is to hit on a couple of high risk guys in the late rounds and / or rookies to give you the production cause if they hit, you’re WRs are so far ahead of other teams your ceiling willl be hard to match. You can’t give up on the strat 2 rounds in and pick up a middling guy like Howard over someone like diggs or Hilton.

Like I said, it’s not for everyone you gotta have the stomach for it.


#14

Let me ask you then, as someone who mocks ZeroRB constantly but never actually employs it in a draft, I feel like the 6th is the latest to take my first back. Do you concur or would you secure one more?

I did a recent mock and went AB, AJ Green, Thielen, Zach Ertz, Russell Wilson, Marvin Jones (in that order) before getting Guice and Lamar Miller to start (paired with Kerryon Johnson, Jamaal Williams, Chris Carson)


#15

Yeah I probably wouldn’t go farther than the 6th. You honestly just have to see what falls to you. I’ve taken an RB as early as the 4th and as late as the 7th. Typically, I find myself taking my first RB in the 4th or 5th. If I’m taking someone in the 4th, it’s usually someone like Guice/Ajayi. In the 5th, its like a Miller/Penny. And then in the 7th is when I typically will reach a bit for a Burkhead and then grab like Kerryon. Burkhead is a pretty key part of this strategy because he’s got huge TD upside and is tied to one of the leagues best offenses. That’s the key to this strat is you gotta take guys with high upside in good offenses who have a chance to lead the backfield in touches. Burkhead, williams, Coleman, etc.

I would never take a QB, you can’t do it with this strat unless its something absurd like getting Rodgers in the 5th or 6th. Even then, that’s kind of where you want your RB so I just don’t advise going QB early.

I also dont advise going zero RB if you’re picking that early. I am assuming you had like pick 1.04 or 1.05 in order to be able to get AB? If he fell to you at 1.08 or later, than that’s crazy and can definitely do zero RB from there. Anyway you just have to feel for what comes to you. You’re going to get great value at WR so it’s okay to reach a bit in the later round for those target high upside RBs like I said. You’ll be surprised how good your team turns out. But would avoid getting a QB that early. You need to slots for skilled players.


#16

Gotcha, I had read an article that suggested filling the QB position if Wilson or Rodgers fell… I was drafting 6th and AB fell as someone snagged OBJ as the first WR off the board - like you said I kind of decided on the fly when I had a chance to grab Green in the 2nd round to just commit to the ZeroRB to see where it went.


#17

So many ways to play its confusing lol but I guess on the fly is the best. I’m still trying out the strategy @MikeMeUpp laid out earlier while looking out for value.

My last draft was OBJ, MT, Cooper, Tate, Penny, Hogan, Ingram, Burkhead, Burton, Rivers, A. Jones, Riddick, Clement, L.Murray in that order.

Draft Simulation Result Here

I think it can be better so i’ll keep at it.
What are some of the late round picks you guys are always looking out for besides Williams/ Wilkins/ Mack/etc. With so many dice roll names down the board I can’t tell if i’m picking the right people.


#18

Everyone has different convictions in the mid to late rounds. For example, I’m pro Chris Carson, while many here will tell you I’m talking crazy. The truth is that if one digs deep enough, one can convince themselves that ANYONE is a good pick (except for maybe Brandon Marshall… lol)


#19

Go with you gut and pick the guys you like. It’s all a crapshoot and anyone who thinks they know something is out of their minds. Like I always so, better to swing for the guy you believe in than to strike out with someone else’s guy. Watch the film, trust your eyes and look at the opportunity.

Personally, I love the following targets: Lynch, Williams/Jones, Mack/wilkins, Clement, Barber. But I would never draft two guys on the same team or handcuff myself.

Part of it is based on the talent, part of it is based on the opportunity, and part of it is based on the lack of faith I have in the guy playing ahead of them (i.e. Barber).

End of the day, you gotta remain flexible. I never go into a draft saying, Oh I’m definitely doing zero RB. Like if Kamara or Barkley fall to me and I’m picking in the 8-10th spot, then of course I adjust my strategy. It’s just that for the most part, given how much people reach for RBs, the value for WR has just been there for me in the early rounds.