1st Round Pick Advice

I’m going to be in the situation where I am choosing between Barkley, Brown, Gordon, Beckham, and Hopkins… Who are you choosing? (.5 PPR)

I already have Alvin Kamara as a keeper as my 11th round pick

I would go with AB

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If 1 of the big 4 RB’s are not available I would go
Beckham or Brown … Beckham over a bit

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in order i would go…

melvin gordon
Antonio Brown
saquon Barkley
Odell Beckham
Deandre Hopkins

known top end RB, then the best WR you can get, followed by pure potential at RB, then really OBJ or Hopkins you can flip flop cause i see them being very close to each other either way.

AB by a country mile. I get it, RBs are scarce blah blah blah but there is a point where that argument just doesn’t matter anymore, when the skill gap is just to large. AB is where I draw the line. He is the only exception to the rule who gives you week to week production and one of the highest ceilings at the WR receiver position. He beats any defense, any match up, it doesn’t matter. Steelers love to use him and Big Ben loves to target him. That’s just my opinion but taking a tier 2-3 RB above AB in any sort of PPR format just seems a bit insane to me.

AB was a WR2 or better 64.3% of the time. a WR3 or better 78.6% of the time. And boomed (25+ points) in HALF of the games. Let me say that again. He scored 25+ points in HALF of his games last year. He’s the type of guy that will literally win you a week by himself and he does that in half of the games. That’s the kind of upside you need to win in the playoffs.

Not saying Gordon is a slouch either. He gave you RB2 or better 81.3% of the time and only busted 12.5% of the tiem vs AB at 20%. But he also only boomed less than 20% of the time. To me, giving up 12% bust weeks to gain over 30% in boom weeks is a no brainer. And if AB plays all 16 games, he is a mortal lock to finish at least top 3 at the position.

After that
OBJ (WR2 or better 75% of the time, 25% boom)
Hopkins (WR2 or better 93% of the time, 0% bust, 27% boom)

I wouldn’t fight you if you took Gordon above OBJ and Hopkins though personally, I don’t put them in the same tier.


how often did barkley boom or bust last year? i dont mind taking AB over gordon cause as you say, its A fuckin B. me, im taking the last known elite RB in gordon first. its tough, but to me its necessary. but barkley, as talented and as much potential there is there… it is not known what he will do. how he will fit. im fine with taking barkley over everyone but a few. because he does have that talent to be the best. gordon is the last of the elite. as you pointed out, he never really busted. just the one game against denver, who even zeke busted to. gordons floor is so incredibly safe and his ceiling is so high. barkleys ceiling is just as high, but his floor is a bust. there is no infallible talent to come out of college. in no way do i think he is a bust, but the point remains… that is his floor. i would just advise gordon over barkley.

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I wouldn’t hate you for taking Gordon over Barkley either. Like you said it’s proven vs unproven talent. As you’ve seen in my comments in these forums, I’m the guy who’s more willing to gamble on young RBs cause I do watch a lot of college tape. I am no expert by any measure, but I do trust my gut a bit and am willing to take some risk and gamble. Those who took that risk and gambled on guys like Zeke and Fournette late in the round were rewarded. Now granted, you typically don’t want to take the risk in the 1st round but Barkley is about one of the safest prospects we’ve seen given his receiving prowess. Do I see him outperforming Gordon? I think there’s a very good chance that he does. Gordon’s foot also concerns me just a tad. Not much but just a tad.

I agree his floor is a bust but its a low probability and that’s a gamble i’d be willing to take for someone who is a shoe in for 350+ touches if he is what we think he is. Also, I’d just note that this is a keeper league. And the prospect of Barkley hitting and being able to keep him is an incredibly enticing factor for me. His ceiling for me is DJ. And if he achieves that, getting DJ as a keeper from year to year is an incredible advantage over having a Gordon.

Gordon has an incredibly great floor, I would argue against his ceiling being so high though as you have stipulated and by my numbers above. He is incredibly safe, but he is not really the guy that will go out there and win you a week on his own like gurley/DJ/AB/etc. It may happen once or twice but it’s a rare occurance. By the same measure, he won’t go out there and lose you the week either.

That’s why like I said, its definitely up to preference but in fantasy, every year I play to win. I don’t care about 2nd or 3rd so I am consistently chasing the higher ceiling players WHEN it makes sense. So for someone like AB, that’s a clear cut winner to me. For Barkley, it’s definitely a bit more of a toss up but for me, it’s a risk I’m willing to take.

the keeper part does make me want to swing my answer a bit. i cant lie, you make great points. and part of this is probably just me being a bit biased. because i have had gordon for 2 years now throughout various leagues that he has helped win me because he was such a reliable player, and always at a value. this is the first year he wont be. i just happen to be willing to pay that price because of what he has done for me for 2 years now. i am also a big believer in barkley. so i cant fault you for wanting him over gordon. really its kind of a preference thing. i think i went to argue just because i do love gordon so much haha.

Fair enough. Like I said, Gordon is a stud. Totally agree with you he went totally disrespected for the last 2 years. I myself was guilty of doing that but when you dig into it, he is as reliable as they come. I couldn’t fault anyone for taking over the guys I ranked above him. I just consider myself a higher beta fantasy owner. Just a matter of preference.