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2 Keeper Advice, Allen/Hunt/McKinnon

#1

Rules:
10 Teams
PPR
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, Flex, K, D, 7 Bench
2 keepers

  • Keepers are drafted two rounds earlier than last year’s draft results
  • Not allowed to keep 1st or 2nd round players from last year’s draft
  • Next year’s keeper rules will be the same

Who do I keep?
Keenan Allen at 3.9 (29th overall)
Kareem Hunt at 5.9 (49th overall)
Jerick McKinnon at 15.9 (149th overall)

I really like Allen and Hunt, but is getting McKinnon basically for free and being able to hold him multiple years a much better value?

#2

I agree with your Allen and Hunt, Mackinnon has never proven to be a workhorse so youre going with the unknown, in my opinion!

#3

Allen and Hunt no question. This isn’t even close for me. Sure MAYBE McKinnon is an RB2 if your lucky. If you win the lottery, MAYBE hes a low end RB1.

Fact: Allen is a top 5 WR
Fact: Hunt is an RB1 stud.

You are getting both at great values. Go with what you know.

#4

Piling on hunt and Allen easily

#5

Kareem and McKinnon are such great value that it’s hard not to go with them automatically. (And you probably should)

I’ve been in a league of almost the same formate for quite a while. It feels great to lock of up a position with your keepers. In this case – while you still might draft another RB with the 1.09 or the 2.02 – you have two Top12 RBs in your back pocket, giving you a lot of flexibility with where you want to turn for those first 4 rounds of the draft.

Obviously Allen is a very good value at the 3.09, but the scarcity at RB and the extra two rounds of value with Hunt puts it over the top. And McKinnon is just a free get that late. The Top 7-10 RBs aren’t going to make it to you at the 1.09 no matter what. Too many of them (including Hunt) will be kept… and any that aren’t around going to be gobbled up well before the 9th overall pick. This only further increases the value of getting top (potential) guys at this position.

McKinnon might be a risk… but so is every high-cost guy in the early rounds – especially with injury (OBJ, DJ in 2017) – and you’d be getting him for free. We’re all set to say Keenan is a definitive WR1, declaring that he no longer has an injury history. But he did…

That all to say, even in a 2 keeper league, the 3.09 will still be a very valuable asset to your team. Look at late 4th to early 5th ADP for expectations. While the 15.09 means you’re going to have to draft your defense a round earlier.

Finally, just from a pure value standpoint:
Keenan ADP in 10-team PPR: 2.06
Means your “value” is 13 spots.

Kareem ADP: 2.01
Means your “value” is 38 spots.

McKinnon ADP: 3.01
Means your “value” is 128 spots.

#6

That’s how I initially felt too @Mr_ButterFace. I was concerned a little bit with taking two RBs who are both higher risk for where they are going though. Allen feels like a safer pick. With Breida being hurt, it may sway me back to McKinnon again too. We’ll see how long he’s out. I have until 8/20 to lock in.

#7

I added a little bit more. I hit return too quick.

Best practical advice: Print out rankings you like. Mark off the 20 guys that’ll be kept in your league. And then do a full mock draft to see what you end up with in each scenario. (Ideally, you do this a few times in each scenario, so you can also find out a best-strategy and expectation for those first ~4 picks.) Usually the answer presents itself pretty clearly.

#8

This is ridiculous. We can’t predict injuries. Especially for guys that haven’t had them before. McKinnon has the exact same injury risk as DJ. And then he has the added risk on top that he totally shits the bed, as he has done in his 4 year career in the NFL. Trying to equate McKinnon to DJ is a joke.

Also, saying he has 2 top 12 RBs in his pocket is hopeful at best. McKinnon is by no means a locked and loaded RB1. I’d say his value is up slightly given Breida got hurt but the only protection he has is from his injury, not his actual talent or ability as a RB. He is incredibly overvalued.

Keenan Allen if healthy is a top 5 WR. Given I am not in the business of trying to predict injuries, unless someone literally has constant injuries and cannot stay on the field (i.e eifert, reed, etc), I’m not really using that other than as a tie breaker when two guys are really close. And the talent between Allen and McKinnon is not even CLOSE to enough for me to consider injury risk.

Also just looking at ADPs and comparing spots is not the correct way to look at value. The 13 spot drop from the 1st to 2nd round is SIGNIFICANTLY better than the spots you’re dropping in later rounds.

Is McKinnon a huge value? Yeah sure he is. But I’d say his chances of busting and being nothing more than a flex play is also significantly larger than Allen busting. Your view above does not account for that at all.

In a keeper league, locking down a top 10 RB and a top 5 WR without even expending a 1-2nd round pick is way more valuable than locking down a top 10 RB and a fringe RB2 on average.

Furthermore, no one will have 2 top RBs locked down given its keeper format so not like you’re at a disadvantage if you don’t have 2. I’d much rather start Allen/Hunt/Miller or Ajayi or a tier of RB in that range than start Hunt/McKinnon and a lower tier WR.

#9

This is great advice. It’s what I do with keepers as well. Gives you some planning into what you can expect to get in later rounds.

#10

Ah. I obviously wasn’t clear on the point I was making (regarding OBJ & DJ).

My intent was to rebut the knock by way too many people that McKinnon will bust because he’s going to get hurt. Which, as @MikeMeUpp said, can’t be predicted; it’s a fool’s errand at best for traditionally-healthy players. Basically, my sentence “McKinnon might be a risk…” intended to imply the word “injury” before risk.

My equating McKinnon to DJ & OBJ was merely about how much losing a High Draft Capital player can hobble a team. (Duh, I know.) But while McKinnon certainly has bust potential, getting him in the 15th round completely mitigates my worry over a guy who 49ers management believes has the talent (and therefore will give the opportunity) to be a top RB in the league… Or for our purposes, “an honest chance to be a top 10 RB this season.”

@MikeMeUpp is correct that I don’t account for what the floor for these guys looks like. Rather than look at worst case scenario, I approach this kind of thing with what’s most likely to happen. The “average case scenario”. So I’m just trying to decipher my best bet for talent and opportunity.

McKinnon is clearly the question mark of these two guys. My best bet is…

Assuming health, I think it’s fair to bet he’ll have around 50-60% of the team’s carries on the year. That’s low-end RB1, typical RB2, or high RB3 levels. And means roughly 200-250 carries. (And leaves clear room for boom/bust potential on either side.) What his talent does with those carries… Well, it’s a matter of how much you trust SF’s decision making.

Side Note: I’m not taking into account Breida’s injury. Too early to tell. But Breida readily admits McKinnon is more talented than him in pass-blocking, and the 9ers have McKinnon listed as the #1 on the depth chart, so I like to think the above numbers are a fair (and fairly average) estimate.

And then there’s what Jerrick brings in the passing game. 9-14% of his team’s targets (on the season) would be very average/normal for the role he’s generally predicted to have. That’s around 50-75 targets. He had 54 and 68 the last two seasons, so again, I think those numbers are conservatively fair.

(Note: McKinnon was RB17 last season in PPR. So an “average” RB2… and that’s before his increased opportunity in SF.)

That all results in a guy whose most-likely range of outcomes (that fat part of the bell curve) scores somewhere between 200 and 250 fantasy points on the season (including around 6 to 9 total TDs). Which would’ve been between RB08 and RB13 last year.

Very quick: Using the same approach, I have Keenan finishing in the range of WR04 (behind AB, OBJ & Nuke) and WR12 if TDs skew low.

In the end, that as McKinnon’s expected range of outcomes is worth it for me as a 15th round pick over Keenan in the 3rd, especially when you add in what you likely will get with that 29th overall pick. Especially when considering that RB is the “thinner” position of the two.

A lot of words from me again. Sorry.

#11

I see some of the points you’re making but I guess we just disagree on the talent level of McKinnon and what he can do with the touches. If Breida is healthy, and williams is healthy, I see McKinnon’s share as 50% or less with the potential risk of losing the job by mid season. It’s not a lock that he is the best RB in that backfield. Best pass blocker? Sure, probably comes with him being in the league for 5 years. With his efficiency levels, he would need closer to Melvin Gordon level of touches / receptions / TD potential to make drafting him where he is worth it. And I don’t see a world where he gets 300+ touches. I don’t even see a world where he gets close to 250 carries. 250 total touches is more likely. So I don’t see the RB2 floor and then upside as you have suggested.

Also, I don’t play many full ppr scoring formats, usually play half where his value drops substantially. but by your logic, Duke Johnson was RB12 by PPR scoring last year and yet is being drafted 26 spots after McKinnon. DJ by your projections, would be the higher end of where McKinnon could finish. In fact, Duke Johnson has been a more efficient / productive runner AND passer in his career than McKinnon has in his entire career. Why would I throw away keeping Allen for McKinnon when I can basically get Duke Johnson in the late single digit rounds. Put another way, if you had the option of keeping Duke Johnson in the 15th vs Keenan Allen in the 3rd, would you keep DJ? If your answer is yes, than I guess that’s fair, it’s a matter of preference. I’m more than happy to lock down 1st/early 2nd round talent in the 3rd and take the locked in value there.

Maybe in full PPR format, you could argue his fantasy production is in the 200-250 range, although I do think there’s a significant chance he even underperforms that. And in half PPR formats, that likelihood is even more increased. 9 total TDs is dreaming. Lev Bell only had 11 total TDs last year. He has never been, and don’t think he ever will be a great goal line back. Betting Breida/Williams or even Kyle to take over some of that work. I see 4-6 TDs as much closer to his reality. 9 would be the ceiling, not that average as you have stipulated.

Honestly, i would not be shocked if guys taken after McKinnon like Cmac, Lamar Miller, Ajayi, Drake, Henry, Burkhead, Lewis all outscored McKinnon this year. Hell, McCoy will definitely outscore McKinnon so I’d rather take the gamble on him and others who you can get in the 4th / 5th rounds and combo it with Allen and Hunt. Ingram is another name that comes to mind. So although the Elite RBs are scarce, middling-low RBs like McKinnon are around and replacing him is a lot easier than you’ve made it out to be. The way I see it is this, it’s unlikley that you’ll getting someone in the 3rd that comes close to Allen’s level of production and ceiling. I also don’t think there’s much of a chance of you getting someone in the 15th round that gets you McKinnon’s production. But there are definitely guys in the rounds 4-6 who you can get who in my opinion can match / exceed McKinnon’s production. And if McKinnon is the turd that I think he is, there’s even a chance you can probably take a late round flier on guys like Peyton Barber and Breida who could come close to his production. That possibility doesn’t exist for Allen.

So for me, I’ll take the locked in studs with my keepers at a cost of 3 and 6, and take other dart throws in those later rounds.

#12

First off: I appreciate the dialogue!

Totally agree it boils down to a disagreement over talent level. No disagreement that he’s the (much) riskier choice.

I’m used to 1/2PPR too, and I was pretty thrown off by how just much that can skew things. Duke is a great example. Same with McKinnon’s numbers for 2017. Never would’ve guessed he was RB17 for the year. Big difference between those two is that Duke was and still is the passing down option… with his opportunity decreasing this season. (He was Kizer’s top target last season! Yikes. That ain’t happening again.) McKinnon should be the passing down back again this season… with the opportunity to be a three down option if he produces.

And while you (very rightly) see there being a chance McKinnon is demoted during the season, I see last year’s numbers as a reasonable (and fairy conservative) floor given the 9ers intentions for him.

Scary to say that when he’s never been the 1st option for his team in the pros – and he’s on a new team. Which means a whole new playbook. On a team that’s probably being overhyped…

But then again – looking at Minnesota’s stats from last season – he was their 4th passing option and their 2nd rushing option… starting in Week 5 after Dalvin got hurt. (He averaged 2.5 carries per game Weeks 1-4, and just under 12 weeks 5-17. And 200 carries for the season is only 12.5 per game.)

My bet is he starts the year as SF’s 4th passing option (Garcon, Goodwin, Kittle…) with the upside of Hyde, who had 87 targets. All the talk is that he starts the season as the #1 rusher. That gives several games of 18ish(?) carries. Even if he then gets demoted, I don’t think those targets go away… and he ends right back up where he was in Minnesota. Which (still shocking to me) could be right around RB17.

#13

Going to have to disagree with this. He had his chance to be the 1st option for his team. Many times. 1st, when AP went down, he was given that chance. What happened? He lost the job to Matt Asiata, a guy who is not even good enough to be currently employed by an NFL team. Then, when AP went down again and got booted. What happened? Vikings went out and drafted Dalvin Cook. As luck would have it, he would get another shot when Cook went down early on in the season. McKinnon was given another chance. What happened? He lost the job to Murray, who is only good enough to be a back up running back. Look at the production from McKinnon vs Murray last year. Murray was the better back. This notion that McKinnon has never been given his “time to shine” is bogus. He’s had every opportunity and I would dare say more opportunities to do it and he has blown it every single time without fail. Why would this time be any different? I agree, he’ll have the opportunity yet again to be a 3 down back and I won’t be shocked at all when he again, fails to deliver. Seems like everyone is hanging onto this desperate hope that he will perform and he has somehow only failed to perform due to lack of opportunity so when he’s finally given this golden opportunity in SF, he will magically produce as an RB1 and have a breakout season as a 26 year RB with his 5th year in the NFL. A fairy tale at best. I’ll fade him happily.

Also, I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss Duke. Todd Haley is one of the most pass happy OCs around. Browns will be trailing early and often. Although I expect Landry to receive the lions share of targets, they just cut Coleman and may be losing Callaway to suspension. There is definitely enough targets to go around for Duke. And the rumor is that they cut Coleman not cause they love Callaway but because they want to give Duke more opportunities in the slot. DJ is arguably one of the best pass catching RBs in the league. I could definitely see him repeat last year and getting 100 targets. If not, even if he dips then to 80. And if Josh Gordon doesn’t return, than would expect that opportunity to go up even more. He is easily the 2nd/3rd best option on that team after Gordon/Landry. Yeah you probably get 80-90 carries less with him vs McKinnon but his carries are also more efficient. And like I said, I don’t see McKinnon getting 250 carries like you said. Have him closer to 200 or less.

Several games of 18ish carries? I don’t see it. He’s going to split the backfield, that’s almost a guarantee. I see him closer to 10-15 carries with another 4-5 targets a game. Also, Can easily see Pettis in front of him as a passing option in the short/intermediate area. That’s what they drafted him for.

He was RB17 in full PPR. In half ppr, he was RB24 just FYI. Most people play half PPR.

#14

Yep. Discussion is entirely different with 1/2PPR or “standard”. (I was using PPR because that’s what the original question pertained to.)