Ah. I obviously wasn’t clear on the point I was making (regarding OBJ & DJ).
My intent was to rebut the knock by way too many people that McKinnon will bust because he’s going to get hurt. Which, as @MikeMeUpp said, can’t be predicted; it’s a fool’s errand at best for traditionally-healthy players. Basically, my sentence “McKinnon might be a risk…” intended to imply the word “injury” before risk.
My equating McKinnon to DJ & OBJ was merely about how much losing a High Draft Capital player can hobble a team. (Duh, I know.) But while McKinnon certainly has bust potential, getting him in the 15th round completely mitigates my worry over a guy who 49ers management believes has the talent (and therefore will give the opportunity) to be a top RB in the league… Or for our purposes, “an honest chance to be a top 10 RB this season.”
@MikeMeUpp is correct that I don’t account for what the floor for these guys looks like. Rather than look at worst case scenario, I approach this kind of thing with what’s most likely to happen. The “average case scenario”. So I’m just trying to decipher my best bet for talent and opportunity.
McKinnon is clearly the question mark of these two guys. My best bet is…
Assuming health, I think it’s fair to bet he’ll have around 50-60% of the team’s carries on the year. That’s low-end RB1, typical RB2, or high RB3 levels. And means roughly 200-250 carries. (And leaves clear room for boom/bust potential on either side.) What his talent does with those carries… Well, it’s a matter of how much you trust SF’s decision making.
Side Note: I’m not taking into account Breida’s injury. Too early to tell. But Breida readily admits McKinnon is more talented than him in pass-blocking, and the 9ers have McKinnon listed as the #1 on the depth chart, so I like to think the above numbers are a fair (and fairly average) estimate.
And then there’s what Jerrick brings in the passing game. 9-14% of his team’s targets (on the season) would be very average/normal for the role he’s generally predicted to have. That’s around 50-75 targets. He had 54 and 68 the last two seasons, so again, I think those numbers are conservatively fair.
(Note: McKinnon was RB17 last season in PPR. So an “average” RB2… and that’s before his increased opportunity in SF.)
That all results in a guy whose most-likely range of outcomes (that fat part of the bell curve) scores somewhere between 200 and 250 fantasy points on the season (including around 6 to 9 total TDs). Which would’ve been between RB08 and RB13 last year.
Very quick: Using the same approach, I have Keenan finishing in the range of WR04 (behind AB, OBJ & Nuke) and WR12 if TDs skew low.
In the end, that as McKinnon’s expected range of outcomes is worth it for me as a 15th round pick over Keenan in the 3rd, especially when you add in what you likely will get with that 29th overall pick. Especially when considering that RB is the “thinner” position of the two.
A lot of words from me again. Sorry.