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2017 sexy picks 😏


#1

Hey guys, I would like to discuss some players to target in the early to middle rounds for this year’s drafts. I’m talking about rounds 5 to 9, where you don’t know if you should target a TE, a QB, build depth in a position or reach for a player you like. I believe draft bargains and sleepers can be found in these rounds.

A bunch of friends and I use the term “sexy pick” referring to a player considered to be an underdog that can actually win you a fantasy league. Some examples include:

2015 Brandon Marshall (Rd 5 ADP, ended up as WR3)
2015 Doug Baldwin (Rd 13 ADP, ended up as WR7)
2016 Melvin Gordon (Rd 5 ADP, ended up as RB8)
2016 LeGarrette Blount (Rd 8 ADP, ended up as RB7)

With this in mind, these are my sexy picks for 2017:
Adrian Peterson (Early Rd 5 ADP)
We all know what AP is able to do. The question is: can he remain healthy? Sean Peyton is not a big fan of Mark Ingram - we all saw that last year - and the Saints OL is looking pretty good. Taking into account the upside that All Day provides with his current ADP, I would even take him in the 4th.

Mike Gillislee (Late Rd 5 ADP)
Gillislee is one of the best signings of 2017. He averaged 5.7 ypc in 2016 ranking 1st among players with 100+ attempts (576 yds, 9 total TDs). I don’t expect him to keep those numbers, but even if he goes near that statline I think he could end up in the top 10 this year. Even better, word is said that Gillislee will have a similar role to Blount’s last year (he had 299 touches :open_mouth:).

Bilal Powell (Early Rd 6 ADP)
Powell was one of the best RBs towards the end of last season. He averaged 5.5 ypc and had 1000+ scrimmage yards. Look for him to gain more touches and more production overall as Matt Forte’s career declines. Side note, the jets RBs have one of the best calendars on paper this year.

Tyler Eifert (Early Rd 7 ADP)
We all know what Eifert is able to do in the Red Zone (TD machine). If he can stay healthy for most of the season, I think this guy can win you a fantasy title. This is the only case in which I would draft 2 TEs.

Jeremy Maclin (Late Rd 7 ADP)
I believe Maclin is 2015 Brandon Marshall. He is changing teams, underdog, not much competition in Baltimore, and a lot of targets just banished (Steve Smith and Dennis Pitta). It’s outrageous to me that Maclin is falling to late 7th. I would be REALLY comfortable having him as my FLEX. I’d expect Maclin’s ADP to rise as the season approaches.

Kyle Rudolph (Mid Rd 8 ADP)
This guy is my off-season crush. If I’m not able to get Kelce on the 4th or Eifert on the 8th I will undoubtedly get Rudolph as late as 8th round. Almost no injury risk and a very high floor.

Kirk Cousins (Early Rd 9 ADP)
Captain Kirk is a very good bet to round up your team in the late 8th or early 9th. I do not like drafting QBs early, so after I get my 8 guys (3-4 WRs, 3-4 RBs and 1 TE) Cousins is a pretty solid option to make your team look good as hell. Plus, he finished 5th among QBs last season and is ranked as the QB10 in this one.

Honorable Mentions
Philip Rivers (Rd 10)
Mathew Stafford (Rd 10)
Mike Wallace (Rd 11)
Josh Doctson (Rd 12)

NOTE: Keep in mind I am using 12-team standard-scoring leagues for stats and ADP rankings. I used FantasyFootballCalculator as a source.


#2

Adrian Peterson - I really don’t mind picking up both AP and Ingram. They are both productive in an offense that scores a lot. Besides, best case Ingram gets traded for a center and you have hella upside. AP or Ingram goes down and you have hella upside. Or they both do ok.

Gillibear - I have not been a huge fan of his, but the more I run metrics on the Pats the more I think he is almost a sure thing for double digit TDs.

Powell - He is good, but Forte is still there, the team plan is completely unpredictable, and they will not score a lot. I am avoiding this backfield like a vegan crossfitter’s convention.

Eifert - He is going to get injured, that is all.

Maclin - Flacco maybe just a game manager, but he is really good at throwing the ball to a wide open receiver. With Mike Wallace on the field, opposing safeties are in trouble. Who do you guard deep? I LOVE this pick. There is almost no risk at all.

Rudolph - He could be amazing or he could be nothing. See 2015 Barnage vs 2016. Very little changed on the Browns except they got some more weapons. You know…like the Vikings did.

Cousins - If I have him I will have a backup QB.

My sexy picks:
Robert Woods - Tavon Austin was a favorite of the old staff, but with the new blood coming in I have high hopes for Woods. The best part is that he is practically free.

Rishard Matthews - I know his targets will go down this year, but I believe his TDs will hit double digits. Inside the 10 zone, he caught every ball throw his way, and an amazing 83% of those targets were TDs. Granted he only had 6 targets I expect the Titans to score much more this season.

Joe Williams - All signs so far point to this man taking that starting job this year. A starting RB in the 12th round is just jaw dropping.


#3

My Sexy Picks:

Brandon Marshall WR/NYG - I see him the 5th-7th rounds in mocks. He’s an elite WR, he’s got a legitimate QB and a top 3 WR on the other side of him taking attention. For the price, he’s your WR3/4 and should perform as a WR2

Jamaal Williams RB/GB - I’ve heard Jake Ciely call him the Jordan Howard of '17. I like Ty Mont too, and Williams goes late enough that handcuffing them actually makes sense.

Tyrod Taylor - QB/BUF - Dude puts on fantasy numbers. Gets it done with his legs and loves to toss the deep ball. If Watkins is healthy, you can still take Taylor in the 13th(!) round (or at least I have in mocks).

Pierre Garçon - WR/SF - The boys on the show have talked about him (as has every fantasy pod I listen too) and he’s got a good floor in the Shanahan offense. I’ve seen him go all over draft boards, Rounds 6-10, all great value as a WR3/4.

On mobile so I’m going cut it there, but I agree with @Guinness on Joe Williams.


#4

I am worried about AP


#5

Great feedback.

I too like Rishard and Joe Williams and will target them in late rounds. I’m a believer on expanding the bench spots so that the draft has a bigger impact. Every year I seem to run short of spots in order to get the players I like.

@ReginaPatFF on TT, I think it’s too risky to wait THAT MUCH on QB and I don’t like drafting 2 QBs so I think I will avoid him. I’m much more comfortable having Philip Rivers, but I do agree on TT’s value. I believe Maclin has more upside than Brandon tho, and their ADP is very similar, but if he falls to 7th he is a sure steal.


#6

@Paul_the_Pulp, I actually like less bench spots. I love an active free agency. I am in a 14 team league and there is only a few qualify players available.


#7

I agree. I’m in a 20-team IDP league and there’s not much left to waiver. Even if there is something “waiverable” it’s very hard to land him because of the low supply.

Nonetheless, I believe that standard leagues with fewer teams (8-12) should have 2 more roster spots (8 in total) so the draft can acquire more importance. By doing so, you reduce the advantage of people doing bad the first weeks of the season and grabbing every good waiver. I also like the fact of non-resetable waiver priorities; I believe it makes you strategize better.


#8

I have a much different definition of “sexy pick” lol.

I think of sexy picks of guys that you think of really high upside cause of raw talent speed etc or breakouts. Guys like Martavis, D. Parker, Mariota, Winston, K. Hunt (Ware is not sexy but could be the better pick), E Ebron. I think a lot of the guys you mentioned I would label as vegetables or value picks. Get enough and you will be big and strong, but you crave the ice cream. Could be really satisfying or not sit right and give you a belly ache.

AD and Doctson are the only ones I would label “sexy.” Love all the other guys you listed but would consider them values (which isn’t a bad thing). Most of my list is in the paragraph above.

Happy drafting!