2018 Early Round BUSTS

Each year, about 50% of picks in the first 2 rounds will be busts. We don’t want to believe it will happen, but we always look back and wonder why the hell we spent a first/second round pick on certain players. Last year Jay Ajayi, Jordy Nelson, Mike Evans and Amari Pooper busted just to name a few. Who do you all have pegged as busts, or just as players with higher bust potential that you’re avoiding?

For me I’m avoiding these players just to name a few:

Alvin Kamara: His ADP is too high for me considering his workload. I don’t have him low in my rankings at all, but I’d rather grab someone who’s workload I feel more confident in (like Melvin Gordon)

Kareem Hunt: He won’t recieve 91% of the backfield work like last year (I believe that percentage was right, correct me if I’m wrong). Spencer Ware is back, and it’ll probably go back to Andy Reids usual backfield split where the lead guy gets about 60 to 65% of the work. Couple that with the addition of a great redzone threat in Sammy Watkins, this offense seems like it has too many mouths to feed with an essentially rookie QB. I could see Hunt losing work left and right this upcoming year.


Kamara, at least the first 4 games, will take the GL runs unlike last year. They also have a great OL and downfield blocking. If you watch his highlights, look at that blocking. Hell, it could even get better. Their WR corps are big guys (barring Ginn) and they will get defenders out of the way. I don’t see a bust at all.

Hunt IMO is way over valued. I had him last year and almost had to bench him. Reid is going to tinker with his volume for sure.

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I don’t know why everyone is down on Hunt. Yes he had a lull last year but he played 16 games his rookie season and got 1700 yards from scrimmage. He almost caught preist holmes record. I don’t worry about him this year other than a possible suspension from this hotel incident

He deserves a end of first ADP

New QB for one that likes deep shots. Hunt won’t be a bust but one thing I noticed last year, around the GL, Reid got cute. Not sure what that was about but he got robbed of some TDs then Ware will get some. I think he’s still great, just the dynamics this year are a little different. Tea leaves are saying he will see the ball less.

For me it’s Julio Jones. If you take him in the first round odds are he’s going to disappoint unless he happens to catch 100 passes. Assuming you’re in a ppr league then it would even out even if the TD’s weren’t there. With Ridley and Sanu plus the workload for Freeman and Coleman I think Julio’s TD limit is about 8 at most. He should be a quality value in round 2.

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I am more wary of Hunt than Kamara this year by a decent enough margin. In the middle of the first picks 6-8 I’m often staring down some mix of AB, Kamara, OBJ or Barkley and I would be fine taking any of them that fell to me but I’d have in that order in my head (except full PPR I’d move OBJ up and standard I’d move him down).

On to players on my bust potential radar, assuming 12 teams looking at who’s in the top 24 in current ADP these are the guys I’ll be wary of.
Julio, week to week consistency is a massive factor and I have doubts about the Falcons offensive coordinator getting his TD numbers up as well.
Barkley (I know), look I see the talent but the guy has never played in the NFL also that O-Line has a three decent starters but still has question marks plus the risk of Eli being done and not being able to get the ball to OBJ and co means Barkley will see nothing but stacked boxes. At his current hype price it is a risk going with him over proven players.
McKinnon, a round later I’ll take him but not as my second guy. He’s never shown more than flashes and has durability issues and he’s never been the lead guy, he’s worth a look but again not at his current price.
Mixon, as long as Marvin Lewis is the coach I think he’ll be okay but won’t be the RB you draft him to be, also Gio will take some volume away again especially under Lewis who likes him.
Lastly I have an expectation tempering on Gurley and Hopkins. No issue taking them where they are going but TD regression is extremely likely especially for Hopkins as Watson can’t sustain his five game pace for a whole season. They’re top 3 assets to own at their posistions but I won’t bank on the same TD numbers this year.

Thielen and mixon are my busts