2019 sleepers, busts and breakouts

It’s early but looking at 2019 season there is already room to talk about how the season is looking with coaches being hired and team needs. Feel free to critique, add and/or subtract any player(s) you feel.

Sleepers

Daesean hamilton

Not a flashy name but, a great route runner who has dominated target shares in Denver since Sanders went down and Sanders will presumably be out deep into regular season. Quarterback play is terrible but, a second year should see improvements or a better QB via FA or draft.

Kenneth Dixon

Contract year, gus isn’t involved as receiver and Baltimore is all in on lamar Jackson at QB which means a lot of RPO and in division with weak run defense.

Elijah McGuire

Has the talent to unseat isiah Crowell as lead back and has played well given that he has had to face the tougher run defenses down stretch. The only thing that can hold him back is Adam gase.

Busts

Patrick mahomes

Kid is really talented but, every rookie who coaches have limited film on has a edge. Not saying he will crater but film on his will be broken down to emulate and contain him. In his first season put up stats near Peyton Manning, Tom brady and drew brees historic seasons and talk of him going in first round is too risky.

Saquan Barkley

Other worldly talent yet, for some reason rookie RBs roughly over the past five years who have had a monster rookie season have major on field and/or off field problems. See gurley, hunt, cook, fournette, and rawls recently. Talks that team can’t get any worse need to only look at Browns and lions who had disastrous seasons recently. Add questionable qb play or who it will be and it’s very risky.

Lamar Jackson

Put up a great record after taking over but, went over 200 yards passing once, excelled in being a running QB against some of the worst run defenses, horrendous pocket awareness and fumbled the ball at a near one per game rate.

Breakout

Peyton barber

During bruce Arians tenure in Arizona he resurrected carson Palmer career and had a near top 10 running game and made david jojnson a fantasy stud. If he can hold off Ronald Jones sky is the limit for what Arians can do with him.

Darrius guide

Early season torn acl ruined his season but, was in same conversation as barkley and looked fantastic. Question marks at QB and what is to be determined with other rbs but, can easily finish top 10 if healthy.

Jerick McKinnon

Early season injury ruined his season. Coming back healthy with jimmy G, shanahan calling plays and rushing game that was quietly in top 5 near top 10 most of season.

For dixon and McGuire, it also depends on what FA brings in. Ravens and jets both potential landing spots for bell. But that point aside I think dixon will be more involved and it will be a rbbc with gus and dixon. Collins will leave as a FA. I agree with Hamilton. He’s worth a stash but who knows who will come out of that wr as the number 1. Biggest critique I have is of mahomes and Barkley. To say that these 2 wil bejbust is a ridiculous statement. I believe that regression for mahomes is likely but for Barkley how can you say that while watching him run with no line no QB and no team. He’s a generational talent. And will be a top 5 rb for the next 3 to 5 years guaranteed. Guice and McKinnon will be great. For guice it depends more on his team and their health. And for barber let’s just see if they even bring him back next year. I think they go for a fa rb maybe ingram. Idk just not barber.

Well made points about dixon and McGuire. This is really early like you alluded to. When i say bust im not saying that player will do horrible but, what your planning on getting isn’t close to what is to be expected. Mahomes numbers this year have been like a video game. Regression is coming. I warned my friends about gurley after he had his crazy rookie season and my friends laughed at me. I warned my friends again about Elliot not having a good second year. I refused to touch hunt cause i felt it coming. I don’t know if it’s like the madden curse but, something happens to star rookie RB in their second year. Barkley is beyond talented like gurley and i see the same thing that happened to gurley his second season. Add question marks at QB, O line and coaches knowing to forget everyone else and just stop Barkley it’s a big gamble.

Barkley is a better player than Gurley.
Can’t see him being a bust this year, look what he did behind a O-line made up of bums off the street.
Imagine the numbers he’d put up running behind the great Rams O-line that Gurley (and now CJ Anderson looking like a world beater ffs) runs behind.

Be careful with the term “bust.” It implies a complete miss in value and total failure to produce as expected. A bust is a regret of a pick. To assume regression for Mahomes and Saquon are not outrageous assumptions to make. It’s almost obvious to expect from Mahomes. Saquons splits vs top half teams are alarming too.

For Mahomes to have a 4000+ yd, 35+ TD year is not just likely but almost guaranteed. That would still put him in the running for the QB1 considering the QB2 was at 4900 and 35.

Saquon, even if Ds put even more focus on him, will manage 80+ catches and should rush for 1000 yards. Once again almost guaranteeing at least a top 12 season.

Busts, no. Regression? Maybe.