3 Keeper Killing Me. Thoughts?

Tough call. Keep going back and forth. Kamara for sure but RB’s, so hard to get. Leaning on keeping all 3 RB but AT and MT are real steals…ughhhhhh.

Alvin Kamara: $1
Kareem Hunt: $18
L. Fournette: $29
Adam Thielen: $2
Michael Thomas $11

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kamara, kareem, MT. value value value. im assuming this is somewhere in the 200$ budget? maybe 150? either way thats 30 spent so somwhere in the 15-20% range of your budget to lock up your 2 starting RBs, plus a locked and loaded WR1. sure, thielen is the better value, but who has a better chance of living up to their expectations? MT. thielen has to compete with diggs, cooks, and to an extent kyle. MT is the saints passing option. its not a question of who gets the more targets. thielen could fail, so thats why i go with the 9$ more option even though the value is there for thielen. otherwise, spending 21$ aint a bad choice either. i just want MT.

for me it comes down to your draft strategy. Do you think you’ll try to spend big early and lock down a Bell/Gurley/DJ? Then I would go Kamara/MT/AT, only spend $14 and you’ve locked up 3 every week starters and you can throw a ton of money at a stud and the $16 you saved on AT over Hunt goes a long way.

Or do you prefer to space out your picks and grab a bunch of mid-value guys? Then I’d go Kamara/MT/Hunt for the reasons BusterD described above.

Thanks. AT, good probability he comes back down to earth for sure. It’s a $200 budget so going with AK, KH, MT I get three almost givens for what are still bargains. Still have a lot of coin to snatch up Fournette for likely $10 more so yeah, that sounds about right. If not, somebody is going to over pay for Fournette.

That’s very tough… I guess it will depend on the way you construct your remaining roster after the keepers. I was in a very similar position recently and ended up keeping Fournette and two receivers. If you feel like you can save the fab on not taking one of the running backs and get a homerun receiver in the auction, then I would do Kamera and Fournette. To be honest, I don’t see hunt or Kamara playing all 16 games this year, I definitely think that Kamera’s redraft value is overrated. Since you obviously keep him, go with Fournette since you have a guaranteed monster workload there. That receiving corps is an absolute mess and I think that even if they were better, the offense would still flow through Fournette

thats a very odd thing to think. what makes you think that kamara and hunt wont play 16 games? i mean of those three players, hunt, kamara, and fournette… the one you should have concerns with playing 16 games is fournette. so im really interested to hear the thinking behind that. i mean hunt of all people is very odd. he has never had an injury in all of his career. the only thing that has happened is a sore hammy recently, but even then… it was just sore and he is already back out there in full pads and full contact.

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Fournette missing time IMO is about as close to a given as it gets. Even when I drafted him, I thought he would miss no less than two which he did but, one was for being a butt munch.

I just can’t justify holding on to him at that price. Let someone else assume the risk and pay 40 plus. I may do it myself depending how things shake out but I would rather bid on Barley or Guice first.

I realize that this thinking probably sounds a bit off the mainstream. Kamera is just a smaller guy, and I feel that This does make him more prone to injury. I understand it’s a risk you take with all running backs, but the way he plays lends itself to getting hit in the open field by safeties with more of a running start. Don’t get me wrong, He’s obviously an amazing player but I do think that the injury risk with him is higher. I also believe that defensive coordinators this year will adjust for him now that they’ve seen a full season of production. I have no real reason to think that Hunt will get hurt, except that I See a world where Mahommes struggles mightily and leans on Hunt more than he should. Increased workload is great, but it also increases the risk of injury.

Now I know that sounds like exact argument I made to keep Fournette, I just think that he is more capable of playing through injury with an increased workload. He’s a bigger guy and he runs hard between the tackles. I also think that his quarterback will be more responsible when it comes to game management, just given that he has more experience in league.

This is all to say that in reality, I do believe that all three players get hurt over the course of the season, I just think that Fournette is in a better overall situation with a stronger defense than the other two, and I believe in his ability to play through the injury versus taking stretches of games off.

I do think that’s pretty smart! Guice is a similar player and I believe that he will end up being the featured running back in that offense. I think no matter which way you look at it, you’re in a pretty good spot!

i can accept your thinking, i guess i just dont agree with it. smaller backs are shiftier and know how to move their body to reduce those big hits. kamara being an expert at that. so im not concerned with him more than i am with any other back. and hunt is just a healthy workhorse back who just doesnt get hurt. an increased workload doesnt scare me with him, since he has gone a long time without even a hint of a serious injury. the one thing i do agree on, is fournette and his ability to play through and all that. i just dont see kamara or hunt as anything to be concerned about injury wise.

oh, and kamara and hunt are about the same size. they’re really not all that small as RBs go. 5 10, and 5 11. both about 215. both really good sizes for RBs. hell, some of the best backs of all time are around that size. Ladanian Tomlinson is actually the same height and weight as kamara. im only bringing that up cause i just want to point out, he isnt really small. he just looks smaller cause he looks thinner. but he just has excellent body weight distribution.

AK and KH are the same size and very tough. Kamara looks more agile but defenders have said he is a rock. Fournette actually lost a bunch of baby fat, he’s at 223 now which is only 8lbs more than both AK and KH. Slightly heavier but nothing like last year where he was 20lbs heavier which is a big deal. Will he still have that same punch? Maybe, force equals mass times acceleration and he will be faster so likely no change in space.

Yeah all of that makes complete sense, for what it’s worth I do believe that Hunt is less of an injury risk either one of them. And I totally agree with you about LaDainian Tomlinson, obviously ended up in the hall of fame and showed himself to be very durable in a time when football was much more violent than it is now. I can completely see why you think the way that you do, it does make a lot of sense. I guess I have biases based on being a football coach and having lived through the
Truth of my own experiences. Let me ask you does then, who do you think plays more games this year of those three, start to finish?

yeah thats why i cant fault you for your thinking. cause im using my own experiences to make my deduction, just like you are. and its not like i can say there is no way in hell they get hurt, cause there is always that chance.

start to finish? kareem. i dont think kamara gets hurt, but thats a team composition thing. i expect the saints to be very good this year, and rest their players towards the end. i expect more of a rough start to the chiefs season, with a stronger finish to where they have to play the whole 16. and fournette i expect will miss 2 game to injury. and not something really bad, just the usual ankle injury, which he has fought through. i also do see a world where his ankle is fine all year long. just if i had to make a bet, it would be him for 2 games. and i probably wouldnt even bank on those 2 game being back to back.

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Agreed for once. Thielen is definitely tempting, but that feels like getting greedy. I’ll bank the definite value of MT.

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I love Fournette but just can’t keep him. Feel bad about dropping him and it’s not even the missing a couple of games aspect. The more I think about it, losing 15 or so lbs is a big deal to me. That weight allowed him to egg on LB’s, push through bottled up holes. That Big Foot Monster Truck aspect is not totally gone but it concerns me. He also does not have great juke ability. He has that spin but a spin is a dangerous move. Seldom see RB’s do it and he does it a lot.

MT is no brainer. Kamara is no brainer. Comes down to Hunt and Thielen for me. Fournette is too much.

Personally I think last year was Thielen’s ceiling. I’d probably go with Hunt. $18 for a workhorse back is still incredible value and honestly dont think the gap between Hunt and Fournette is worth the $11.

Kamara, Thomas and Fournette. You’ll spend a little more but for $41 you’ve got 2 RB1’s and a solid WR1. Still like Hunt but no way he see’s the kind of touches he got last year, for $10 I’d take Fournette’s consistency.

You can also take the 2 games that Fournette probably ends up missing.

Not sure where this “no way” he sees the touches argument comes from. The man is an absolute stud and he’s going to eat. Maybe he loses some touches to get some rest sure. But I don’t think its this end of days forecast everyone is making it out to be. And the touches he does lose, will probably cancel out for the touches you lose from fournette missing the games. And you get to save $11 to allocate to another potential starter.

Yeah that makes sense! You think Kamara loses significant volume when Ingram returns??

thats a tough one, and potentially why kamara could end up as the RB1 overall. cause lets say he is lights out weeks 1-4… if youre sean peyton, what do you do? do you try to keep him fresh, or do you ride the kamara train? if he does stick with kamara and he gets into the 250+ carries world, that boy dangerous. if he doesnt… that boy still dangerous. but honestly, i think he does lose volume once ingram is back. the part that doesnt bother me, is that he will still gain volume. he only ran the ball 120 times last year. im pretty confident in that number going up into the 175-225 range. so long story short… yes and no. loses volume, yes. significant volume, no.