3 keeper League Question

Hey guys,

I’m in a 3 keeper, 16 team, half PPR league and I’m not sure the right move to make. The keepers are held in the first 3 rounds so 48 of the best players are always kept (max three year contracts). Also to note - it’s a 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE league. No flex.

Right now I have Kenyan Drake, Miles Sanders and AJ Brown as my three keepers - I had a rough year last year and sold so my picks in rounds are: 4th, 4th, 5th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 7th, 7th, etc (4th round is the real first round of the draft).

My question is: Do I roll with these three and use my picks to draft a solid squad or do I make a move for Travis Kelce or Deandre Hopkins, both of whom are on the trading block due to maxing their contract out with their respective teams. They’re both big upgrades but will probably cost me one 4th round and one 5th round pick. which is the equivalent in our size league of a WR2 and either WR3 or RB3. No other “elite tier” players are available.

I have the picks to make up for it but I would appreciate advice as to what you guys think. I’m pretty much one of the worst “owners” in the league, so any help is a big step forward.

Thanks!

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers forum @Ma05gros!

Any team that has an expired player has zero leverage. If they are unable to keep those players than you might be able to draft them with a 4th. I would trade a lesser pick or hold.

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I’d hold tight.
Drake and Sanders both have top 8 upside.
There’s enough WR and even TE depth that you should be able to build a really solid roster.
You’re only starting 7 players a week, and you already have 3 of those weekly players rostered.
Once your league declares keepers, I’d go on Sleeper and set up a mock draft with the specs of your real draft, and then play out a bunch of scenarios, i.e. picking TE and QB to start off, waiting on TE & QB, etc.
You should be able to get a good feel for what’s going to be there when it’s your turn to pick.

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Thanks guys!

It’s tough, quite a few of the league members expect me to move for a top guy because “you need a stud to win” is the consensus opinion and we run a league podcast where people can get quite vocal about their views lol I prefer to hold my players and picks.

There’s also the league mantra that “a lot of picks doesn’t guarantee you’ll draft well” which is true based on statistics - someone has looked back and somewhere around 40% of the first 16 picks pan out to be worth their value. Which does have me concerned.

@Ma05gros You aren’t a bad owner in 2020 yet – no one is! So don’t let people hold a tough year in the past over your head & pressure you into making a poor decision in a new season!

Your keepers are very solid – they aren’t sensational, but they’re solid keepers for a 16 team league (and there’s plenty of reason for optimism about all 3 of them!)… could you upgrade? Sure. But you aren’t in a bad spot.

Totally agree with @fun4willis … if their guys are contracted out, they have no leverage at all. They’re just trying to turn nothing into something… and they’re thinking “let me find the ‘bad owner’ and bluff him into a deal that helps me.”

Basically, they’re offering zero value (to themselves) from their end. They can’t keep Kelce/Nuk. And they’re trying to turn zero value into your picks (plus, I’m guessing, one of your keepers, right?). So sure, maybe it’s worth giving a pick up! After all, Kelce/Nuk would have more value to you than AJ Brown would have to you. But they are the ones who have to cave to make a deal, or else their potential value completely disappears.

And a bunch of picks doesn’t guarantee you’ll draft well, sure. But it’s not a guarantee for anyone… and so the best way to improve your chances is to make a lot of picks! Just tossing numbers out there, but say you’re only a 30%-success drafter, & the better teams are 50%-success drafters… but 2 picks at a 30% success rate is better than their odds anyway!

You’re already on track for 2020 – just keep going! You’ve got this!

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