.5 PPR Pick 1 Keeper

.5 PPR
Michael Thomas (2)
Mark Andrews (12)
DJ Moore (6)
Courtland Sutton (10)
Pick 1

Would lean Andrews over Thomas, the value is too good.

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Wow that’s tough.

For starters, I’m definitely not going with Sutton. The other options are too strong.

Playing against other sharp managers (particularly those who follow the Footballers) in 12 tm money leagues I’m most regularly seeing Thomas go in the mid 1st, Moore in the mid 3rd, & Andrews in the mid-late 5th. So in that type of league Andrews is your best value on paper.

However, I just happen to be a big time believer in DJ Moore. This get thrown around too often, but Moore is legitimately a freak athlete. And I believe he’ll finish top 5 in rec’s this season. So depending on who else is being kept - and whether you’re comfortable mining for upside TE’s later in the draft - if this were my team I would personally go with Moore. I genuinely believe we will be talking about him as a top 2 round pick come this time next year.

Now, if this is a smaller league (or one with managers you generally tend to out-draft / manage) I’d probably turn my attention to Thomas. Only so many guys can give you truly league winning performances, and those are the players you absolutely have to accumulate if you want to win consistently in smaller keeper leagues.

Hope that helps.

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Thanks for the incredibly thorough explanation. 12 team league with former work colleagues. I’d say this league is about 70/30 sharp vs. passive owners.

My league is still ironing out the details for our settings this year as a way to hedge against covid. The commissioner is leaning towards reducing starting roster size (QB,WR,WR,RB,TE,FLEX) but keeping same total players drafted . Many of us are pushing for covid-only IR slots. If he goes with the reduced starting roster I’m certainly going Thomas.

This is the first year of keepers for this league. I’m pushing for the commissioner to determine draft order prior to claiming our keepers. Getting Thomas late in the second round obviously holds a lot more value. First overall would mean I’d leave the draft with the RB1 and WR1 both on my roster.