Hey Everyone,
I have the 5th overall pick in two leagues.
10 team, 0.5 PPR
12 team, standard
Assuming Gurley, Bell, Johnson, and Elliott go in the top 4…am I stupid to take Kamara over Brown?
I know everyone talks about the top 4 RB’s and Brown but the RB’s that will be at my 2nd round pick are not making me thrilled to have as my RB1
Any opinions are appreciated!
You aren’t stupid at all. RBs are hard to come by. That being said, Brown is so safe and is a world beater most weeks. Kamara, while amazing, is set for regression. Yes the volume will increase, but we have seen sophomore slumps in the past.
You are getting an elite guy either way, so don’t stress too much 
You could throw Gordon or Barkley in the mix too for the pick. I just have Kamara ranked slightly higher than them for RB’s.
Crazy probably was the better word to put than stupid. I know the smart thing to do is to take Brown but I feel like my team will shape up better with the elite RB in the 1st
its not crazy to take any of the elite in the first at any round. me personally, im going AB, or if i really want an RB, kamara isnt my first choice there. gordon is the next up for me. i have been a believer in him the last 2 years, and this is the first time you actually have to pay what he is worth to get him. which sucks cause he used to be such a good value. but he is consistent in his production, and he will get a bump as well. maybe not much but his o line is improved, and more importantly healthy.
Honestly, I’m taking Barkley, or if your risk appetite is lower, Gordon. Their volume is going to be tremendous, likely on good offenses, and it’s much easier to find a WR1 in the 2nd than an RB1. Much easier.
I would take Gordon over Barkley just based on the lower risk factor and the fact that Gordon is on the better team.
It’s basically Kamara/Gordon or Brown. I know there will be a solid WR1 at my 2nd round spot but Freeman would probably be the best RB (he might not even get to me).
Like i said, risk profile matters. I actually think Kamara is far riskier than either (relatively low volume and almost certain efficiency regression). No chance I’d take him over either of the other RBs or Brown.
As for Gordon being on a better team, I think the Giants could actually be pretty good. Definitely good enough for the overall team quality to not be a drag on him.
I definitely agree with Kamara being riskier and going to regress with his efficiency but I do think he’s going to see more volume this year (and all year, not just during the Ingram suspension).
The best case scenario is one of the big 4 RB’s slip to me.
Strongly considering Barkley or Gordon at this pick instead of Kamara. Trying to map out the draft is difficult but I’ve come up with these scenarios (worse case scenario if the guys I like get gobbled up)
Barkley/Gordon, Freeman/McKinnon, Baldwin, Cooper
Barkley/Gordon, Thielen, Mixon/Howard, Cooper
Barkley/Gordon, Thielen, Baldwin, Guice
Brown, Freeman/McKinnon, Mixon/Howard, Cooper