I draft from the 11 spot (12 team PPR). I usually start my team like M.Gordon and OBJ, then I like to grab a guy like Tyreek Hill in the back of the 3rd (can usually get him there). At that point I’m looking to grab another dependable RB and Royce Freeman, Alex Collins, and Lamar Miller are almost always all available at the top of the 4th… I tend to gravitate towards Freeman but there are obvious concerns with passing work and him being a rookie etc… Collins seems like a safe bet on top of being a proven talent… Then it comes down to miller… who is absurdly undervalued for what he’s going to offer people… I can routinely grab him in the back of the 5th which, imo, is far too low. I honestly think I rank him higher than Collins… Collins is the better runner without a doubt but I just like Miller’s situation and floor so much better… thoughts?
I agree with that and the approach. I think it comes down to knowing your league but I’d take Collins, especially as Dixon has the treaded hamstring issue that’s helping Collins a lot and hold tight for Miller on the return and grab an upside rookie on the way back. I think there is more chance of Miller coming back to you than Collins as you say he is undervalued and Collins has had a lot more hype and flashed at the end of last year and Miller fizzled and as you know fantasy players have long memories for that! Of course if Freeman is there in the 5th go for it but i’d take the volume with Collins, you could gamble with Freeman but you would have to get Miller or someone like a CJ or Lynch on the way back as someone who has guaranteed useable touches just in case
Not sure what you mean by “on the way back.” The question is for the 4th pick. My first 2 picks are generally OBJ and Gordon (if not Gordon then Fournette, Hunt, Cook are all available as my RB1)… then at the 3/4 turn I’m grabbing T.Hill if I can get him. I just like the homerun potential with him. I’m sure I’ll have some bust weeks but his ability to go from 2 for 20 to 3 for 90 and a TD at any given moment is too good for me to pass up when the alternative is someone like DT. Then its that 2nd pick in the 4th that I’m looking at… Miller is way lower in ADP but I can almost guarantee he won’t make it to me in the 5th. I’m approaching this as in none of these 3 guys will fall to me in the 5th so I gotta choose one, regardless of their ranking or ADP… so this is kind of “In a vacuum, which of these guys would you rather have as your RB 2?” On the upside… if I can’t get Hill at that 3 spot I could be coming away with 2 of these backs and waiting on WRs like Hogan, Sanders, etc… then there’s also the option of going JuJu at that 3/4 turn, I just don’t like taking a team’s 3rd receiving option that early with verified starters on the board lol.
Yes i meant thinking ahead if i take player A here in the fourth, who will be likely to fall to me in the 5th and what do i prefer. I agree it will be unlikely for you to get 2 out of the 3 but in a vacuum i think i take Collins here, i believe in the ability and the Ravens want to run the ball and with Dixon being potentially niggled all year with a hamstring which is very common he has little competition. Miller is too early still but i like him as an RB2, but not over Collins or Freeman. I guess it comes down to if you think Freeman will get the bulk of the work from the get go and if not how long will it take, also how good will Denver be there is still risk with Case at QB if he reverts back to his mean the Broncos will be one of those messy hands off if you can help it teams.
I see the logic of Hill though as the homerun, week winner type guy to pair with the solid producers you have.