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AB trade advice!


#1

I offered Thompson and Allen for brown to the 0-5 owner. He countered with allen and Conner for brown. Do I do it?
RBs- bell, Conner, Thompson, kerryon, Collins, Murray
WRs- theilen, allen, Shepard, Agholor, Corey Davis, Nelson


#2

Hmm…this is a close one. If Bell ends up getting traded you get fleeced. If he comes back in a couple weeks I like it for you. I think overall I do it. Then you don’t have to worry about having bell and conner. which limits your upside.


#3

I say do it bell isn’t getting traded shop conner right now!


#4

I’d probably do it. At this point we have to assume conner loses most of his value when bell comes back. He probably wants Conner to buy a win this week.


#5

Jump on that trade. I’m high on both Allen and AB but I still think AB will be the WR1 from here on out.

Conner is a 2 week rental. People still holding on to the hope he will be traded this season are basically trying to win the lottery. I’d say there is a sub 5% chance he gets traded give what steelers are asking for. And he’s more valuable to the steelers as a player this season than a late round draft pick so they would never deal for less.

I will say, once you trade him, you’ll be pretty damn thin at RB yourself. Are you like 5-0 or something yourself? Cause Thompson looked like he got hurt yesterday too so you might be looking at starting Kerryon + Collins until he Bell gets back.


#6

What about then turning around and trying to trade theilen for Gordon or Zeke? The owner has both RB but not a great WR1


#7

If you could trade theilen for melvin or zeke do it


#8

I’m 3-2 after scoring the second most points this week only to lose to the high scorer. That was my biggest worry being thin at RB. I was going to try and turn theilen into a RB1.


#9

No one is giving up Zeke or Gordon for Thielen. As good as thielen has been, workhorse RBs are in limited supply. If you want to try and flip thielen, you’ll have to give thielen + a low end RB1 or high end RB2 at least.


#10

He has Zeke, Gordon, Ingram, and white (full ppr league) so it isn’t a long shot to think he wouldn’t do it considering he starts amari cooper each week


#11

That seems extremely steep. If you have to add a low end rb1 to the number 1 wr in fantasy right now, there is no way in hell I do that. You may have to add alex collins or kerryon level for even trade.


#12

Seems steep but honestly, that’s just what it costs to get a top 4 RB. It’s just hard to find the same floor/ceiling combo offered by someone like Gordon/CMC/Gurley/Kamara/Zeke And it doesn’t really matter what he’s been to this point, you only care about points going forward.

And I don’t think Thielen will be a top 3 WR going forward. I view him as closer to a top 8 type guy for ROS.

And a low end RB1 sounds like a lot but it really isn’t cause most RBs just haven’t really been performing outside of the top guys. A low end RB1 is basically someone like Michel. And Michel + Thielen for Gordon although expensive, is worth it if you can afford the depth.


#13

This. Thielen is like fringe top 10. I’d say targeting Ingram or White on that roster is where OP needs to target a trade. IDK if that’s easily do-able without hurting this roster more than helping. OP needs to find someone with 5-6 RBs not the dude with just 4 stacked RBS.


#14

I think Theilen stays in top 5, and has arguably had better ceiling/floor than any rb other than Gurley, thought that probably won’t stay that way. But while I see your point about focusing on the future not the past, thats more applicable if he is buying Thielen. If he is selling Thielen, the past matters a lot, arguably more so in most cases.


#15

Really? Just for reference in half ppr scoring formats, Gurley has only outscored kamara by 6 points over 5 weeks and Melvin Gordon by 20 points over 5 weeks.

Thielen has been outscored by All of the top RBs including Gurley, Kamara, Gordon, Barkley. He’s even being outscored by COnner right now due to Conners 2 blow up weeks. And Thielen is only outscoring Zeke by 10 points total despite Zeke having arguably the worst stretch of his entire career and thielen having the best stretch of his entire career. I wrote a piece yesterday about how wrong I was about Thielen. He is a locked in WR1. However, I think there are significant factors/risks to consider in determining whether or not his current output is sustainable. The top one being that Cousins is right now on pace to throw for over 720 pass attempts. In the history of the NFL, only 1 person has ever thrown for more than 700 attempts, and that was stafford in 2012. Not saying it’s not possible but if vikings even remotely fix their D a bit (which even judging by this past week they have drastically improved going up against the eagles, and if Dalvin Cook returns at any point, I just don’t see cousins continuing that passing pace.

So Thielen’s ceiling is right now. You haven’t seen his floor yet cause he’s been an absolute stud. It’s entirely possible Thielen finishes as top 5, but even that would mean for just the ROS portion, he’s finishing closer to the 8-10 range. Which is where I have him pegged.

His floor / ceiling isn’t even remotely close to gurley and doesn’t even match someone like gordon or Barkley who has also had 100 yards from scrim / TD every single week. The production of a true work horse 350 touch RB just isn’t matched by any WR. I don’t even think it’s close.

Basically in order for Thielen to continue his production, he needs the perfect storm of vikings D sucking and being bottom 10 in the league, consistently facing opponents that can run up the score board on them, and cousins setting a new NFL record for pass attempts. Even with all of that, he still doesn’t outscore guys like Gordon or even Barkley who honestly, has room to grow still as giants offense gets better.


#16

Ok, I clearly said “has had” not will have. I also clearly said other than Gurley. Thielen hasn’t been under 18 points since week 1 when he had 14. His floor has been solid, and his ceiling pretty good as well. I am not arguing that he is going to sustain the same production. In fact nobody who is leading the NFL in anything through 5 weeks ever sustains the production. My point is that when this owner is trying to trade, the past is what matters to getting a lot of deals done. He can use that past that Thielen has. Like yo usaid, Thielen’s ceiling is right now. That’s exactly my point and what I have been saying the whole time. I’m not arguing thielen is a better asset ROS, just saying in trade talks his value is high right now, and shouldn’t have to package an rb1 with him to get a deal done.


#17

Got it. I think we’re saying similar things but probably just disconnect. You’re right, historical production definitely does matter, esp since we do have 5 game sample size. But I’m saying that future production matters the most. At least to anyone who is competent, will think about future production as well.

If someone offered me Gordon for Thielen + low end Rb1 or high end RB2, I would take that trade in a heart beat. That’s all I’m saying. Thielen alone, won’t get it done. There are tonnes of productive WR1s. ANd I think what I’m trying to get across, is the replacement value and gap between the top end RBs and lower end RB1s is much wider than the gap between top end WR1s and lower end WR1s. For example, again in half ppr scoring:

RB1 (Gurley) - 130 points
RB4 (Barkley) - 103.7 points
RB13 (Lynch - took him over CMC cause CMC has had a bye week) - 64.1 points

WR1 (Thielen) - 100.4 points
WR4 (Hopkins) - 88.2 points
WR13 (OBJ) - 76 points

So the low end WR1 is outscoring the low end RB by a pretty wide margin. And the drop off from WR4 to WR13 is <12 points. But the dropoff from RB4 to RB13 is almost 40 points.

So even though thielen is currently the WR1, he is no where near as valuable / irreplaceable as a top RB asset. Regardless of if you’re talking about “has had” or “will had”.

That’s why I think a 1 for 1 trade between Thielen for Gordon/Zeke is just not in the realm of possibilities, despite Thielen being an absolute stud up until this point. And giving up a low Rb1 or high end RB2 for him (someone like lynch, Ekeler, Hyde, etc) is pretty reasonable if it nets you a workhorse RB.


#18

I agree…I think we are close. haha I just think giving Thielen’s high end production shouldn’t need quite that high end of a pairing. That’s why i reccomended pairing him with Collins or Kerryon rather than an rb1. If it were Julio, I don’t think people would say you need Julio and mixon to get Gorodn you know? I think Thielen is similar vain.


#19

Collins is straight trash. So he’s not going to get it done. I’ve never believed in the talent, watching him make cuts is like watching a 1999 corolla drift. Not to mention coaches hate him and he keeps giving them reasons to send him to the bench. Kerryon is an interesting case. I think he’s RIGHT on the edge of what it would take. problem is patricia is an absolute moron so can’t trust his usage.

I’m definitely not saying you need to give Mixon. Mixon is a mid to high end RB1 in my eyes, and his value is definitely up there in terms of community perception. The only reason why he isn’t on a total games basis is cause he was injured for a few weeks. But if you look at mixon on a PPG basis in half ppr he should be in the mid RB1 conversation (I would have to double check).

I think Mixon > all of the guys i mentioned (michel,lynch,hyde, etc) by quite a wide margin. I agree that Thielen is in similar vain to JJ. Both are on pace for 1800 yard seasons except Thielen actually has TDs to speak of. If I had to bet though, I would bet that JJ gets there and Thielen doesn’t. If someone offered up Thielen for JJ though, not sure what I would do. That would be a very tough call for me to make.


#20

That’s fair…but I still don’t think people wouldn’t expect you to pair Michel with Julio to get Gordon. Maybe they do and I am delusional. But if i am the Thielen/Julio and Michel owner I would laugh at that offer. Agree Collins isn’t great, but is getting enough touches that you can play him even if frustrating. But yeah probably Kerryon is more realistic.