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Advice with fourth pick


#1

Worried about o line in Dallas I have the fourth pick in ppr league with 3 starting wrs. I am pondering taking brown instead of elliot because of the line and crappy offense surrounding him. An comments or advice?


#2

How does he have a crappy oline lol. They went from like the top o line in the league to like maybe a few spots down. You want to know what a crappy oline looks like? Look at DJ. That’s a crappy o line.

Don’t get cute with it. The 3 starting WRs matters more later on in the draft but with a top 4 pick, you take Zeke and will be more than comfortable. He is more than talented enough to overcome a couple of injuries. I took Zeke yesterday with 3rd overall and I’m plenty happy about it.

He might see over 400 touches this year. That type of volume is irreplaceable. When it’s all said and done, Zeke is going to be a HoFer. He’s a generational talent and the best pure runner in the league and I don’t even think it’s that close.


#3

I would say take Brown, but not for anything to do with Dallas’s lack of o-line. It’s a 3 WR team – you’re gaining more by having the #1 WR. Zeke is going to get his, but seems smarted to stack up on WRs, given the position is your league’s most valuable.


#4

you still have to start 2 RBs lol. Bottom line is, there are more WRs than there are RBs. The starting 3WR argument really only matters once you get below the top 4 RBs. If you pick that early and go WR, you better have a zero RB strat in mind cause the RBs remaining on the wrap from there are awful. And the WRs aren’t necessarily the greatest either.

Unless your league is a start 1 RB and 3WR, I don’t really think that sway your decision enough to pick AB over Zeke.


#5

True. True.

How many people are in your league? I think that might sway my decision, too. If it’s only 8 or 10, and you’re gonna come back around when people like Adams and Thomas are still on the board, then I’d say undoubtably go Zeke. But if this is 12 or 14, and you’re not gonna pick again until position 20+, I think I’d still lean towards Brown. Then you snag something like Mixon/Howard at the 2/3 turn.


#6

the drop off from Zeke to Mixon/howard is much larger than the dropoff from AB to someone like AJ green. Who you will likely be able to get at the turn which IMO is totally disrespectful. Then you could get another WR in the 3rd like Diggs/Hilton/Cooper or Gronk if hes available and then you can go WR again in the 4th like Landry/Juju etc.

If you take AB, then I would just end up telling you to take those very same receivers from rounds 2-4. If you like zero RB, then cool but if you’re not comfortable with zero RB, take Zeke. And I am the biggest proponent of zero RB and even I would take Zeke still.

I just think taking Zeke opens your draft up much more than taking AB.


#7

^^That’s probably the best summation.

Again, for me this is coming down to how many people are in your league. I can tell you that I picked 4th last weekend, took Zeke, and then Adams was waiting for me at the next turn. I was completely content with that progression.

But Adams, for me at least, is the last one in that top tier of WRs I’d want as my WR1. I had AJ Green last year, so I’m biased, but it was just too much of a headache. Yes, he performed, during the regular season, but he absolutely dropped the ball during playoffs and I can’t forgive him for that.

Here’s hoping whoever is picking third takes AB, and you don’t have to overthink the decision any longer!


#8

That can easily happen to any WR. That comes with the position. It’s one of the most volatile positions in the league. He could’ve easily had one of his blow up games in the fantasy playoffs as well then we wouldn’t even have this conversation. Also, news flash, players don’t care about fantasy playoffs. It’s not like they step on the field and say oh snap, its fantasy playoffs now, i better turn it on. They play as they play and points come as they come.

Recency bias is one of the easiest ways to lose at fantasy. Ask all the Ajayi/evans owners from last year vs the Gurley owners. You need to recognize situations and how they change from year to year. AJ green has shown he has the talent to lead the NFL in receiving. He has no competition, easily had the worst year of his career and was still a top 10 receiver putting up 1k+. Adams doesn’t have a single year above 1k yards. People are quick to forget that Green is 2 years removed from putting up 1k yards in 10 games. If he played that season out, could have easily hit 1600+ yards. A total Adam has basically zero chance of touching.

Bengals offense as a whole had about the worst season ever as well. Lost half their starting Oline, changed OC mid season. Unless you think that the situation there is going to somehow be worse this year, I don’t see how you could not think Green is undervalued. I am happily taking any and all shares of AJ green I can this year. Getting someone with top 4 ceiling at the position in the late 2nd round is an absolute no brainer to me


#9

12 team and I agree I want to go rbs early I just wasnt sure with two lineman down and another struggling and the threat of rb injury. BUT I will take Zeke because it makes more sense with the drop off of teired rbs. Thanks for input


#10

But I have also done some mock drafts where I was able to grab ab and gronk the two best at their respective positions, then could reach for Rodgers in third have top three in three positions. With round four and five I could get drake Royce and or lynch wouldn’t that be ok or not?


#11

Do not draft a QB that early. Never mind reach in the 3rd in a single QB league i wouldn’t even take rodgers with my 4th round pick. That move you just described kills a draft. I pray in my leagues that I have someone who is dumb enough to do that. It’s just a league losing move. You’re basically taking rogers in place of someone like Diggs/Hilton/Cooper who have league winning upside. The QB class is way to deep and in any type of scoring format where its like 4/1 or 6/1 or 6/2 or something for QBs, it’s just not worth taking a QB that early.


#12

I know it was just a hypothetical to have top three in three different positions . I will take Zeke and prolly wait till round 8 or 9 for qb depending on how the league drafts the qb position. Il will probably go rb rb unless Adam’s is open at two