That’s not entirely accurate.
First two years, sure. Mariota was trash, but Davis was the WR1 in Tennessee in 2018 and underwhelmed. Even still, let’s eliminate those first two years.
He had a completely locked-in Tannehill for 10 games in 2019 and was pedestrian (one game over four catches, seven with three or less).
And then last year - great season as a #2, but that’s very much what he was. A WR2 on a team that was run-first and opened up much of its passing game with play action.
So now he has the WR1 gig to himself on a team that can’t run. If you’re going to take him over a guy like Robinson, then you’re banking on at least one of two things being true:
A) The Jets offense/QB situation is going to be solid enough to support that sort of output from Corey Davis.
B) His target share as “the guy” will be high enough to where even if Wilson isn’t a world beater, the volume alone for Davis will lead to great end-of-season numbers.
The problem is that based on your bad QB take with his early career, A needs to be true for B to matter. He has yet to show an ability to overcome subpar quarterback play and the person throwing him the ball this year is a question mark.
Do I think he COULD do it? Absolutely. I think he’s a talented receiver and if Wilson hits, this will be the best possibility in his career to show out. I’m high on him and think he’s gonna have a good year.
I’m just not predicting a top 12-15 finish for him and I KNOW that’s something that Robinson can do regardless of who is throwing him the ball (Blake Bortles, Nick Foles, Mitch Trubisky).
They both have the opportunity to dominate the target share for their respective teams and put up WR1 numbers - I’m just betting on the guy who has actually done it.