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Alvin Kamara 2018 Top-5 RB Hype Train MEGATHREAD


#1

General Alvin Kamara 2018 Hype Train Megathread. I’m taking Kamara at 1.05 over Barkley and AB this year in my 12-team ESPN standard league. I think he’s safer, he’s on one of the best O-lines in football, Ingram’s presence keeps Kamara’s legs fresh and keeps him healthy which helps him maintain his efficiency while BARKLEY: is on not just a mediocre but ONE OF THE WORST O-LINES IN THE LEAGUE, he will be overworked, his tape is objectively not as good as Fournette’s or Zeke’s and he’s being put in a much worse situation than Fournette/Zeke but his expectations are to be better than Fournette/Zeke. To me, Alvin Kamara is feeling like David Johnson’s second year - had absurdly high efficiency relative to games/volume as a rookie, and everyone was asking “hmmm idk if his efficiency will be as good” but nothing is changing. He’s also showing signs of CJ2K before the “2K” season. A lot of people think Alvin Kamara shouldn’t be in the Gurley/Bell/Zeke/DJ/Barkley conversation, when in fact Gurley/Bell/Zeke/DJ/Barkley should not be in the Alvin Kamara conversation. I think he can easily. If you don’t believe me, our very own Andy Holloway’s Kamara article is the only honest take on Kamara, breaking down his actual stats and with realistic projections, whereas all of the talking heads in sports media saying “idk if his results are repeatable” are just talking heads. Oh, and who is throwing him the balls? Drew Brees? You mean the guy who is the best QB-who-didn’t-have-GOAT-coach-Bill-Belichic of all time, who is going full throttle this year as it’s his best SB run opportunity ever and he might retire after it? Okay, yeah, tell me more about Barkley’s quads though.


#2

You are way, way off of this. First, I’ll say I agree that Barkley’s tape as a runner is not as good as either Fornette or Zeke’s, but it’s still elite, and the holes that do exist are fixable (sometimes he tries to get more than is there and ends up losing yards). Where he makes up the ground is as a receiver, where he’s genuinely special.

The NYG OL was awful last year, but you have no idea what it is this year, and there’s plenty if reason to think it could be better. Solder isn’t a star, but he’s a competent NFL LT, and his weaknesses are actually in the pass pro part of the game, not run blocking. They also added a very good guard in the draft. Even if the OL and/or team is bad, th e receiving skills insulate him significantly, similarly to how DJ is insulated from poor run blocking and game script by his receiving.

But here’s the Trump card: volume. Barkley is an absolute lock for 325-350 combined carries and targets. Kamara may get a bump in usage from last year, but those numbers almost certainly aren’t happening. Betting on Kamara is better on him to repeat all time great efficiency and TD numbers. Maybe he can do it - he really is an absurd talent - but for taking him that high he HAS to. There’s no margin for error. The DJ comparison is a false one because DJ was an obvious candidate for a monster workload, while Kamara definitely is not.

Give me any back who’s all but guaranteed a legit workhorse load and has a true three down skill set over Kamara any day of the week. For the record, that’s all of 6 guys, by my count: DJ, Gurley, Zeke, Bell, Barkley, and Gordon. I’d also take AB, but Kamara is my next guy, which puts him at 8th overall for me.

For the record, I’m a dynasty owner of Kamara, so I want you to be right. I just don’t think there’s any real support for that view.


#3

I keep hearing this criticisms yet Alvin Kamara is ranked higher than Saquon Barkley and often Melvin Gordon in almost all reputable rankings. Why is that? Why do the experts think Kamara is much better than the forum lurkers?


#4

Almost all? Maybe half.

Yahoo has Barkley 6 and Kamara 7.

Fantasy pros has Kamara 6 and Barkley 7.

CBS has Barkley 7 and Kamara 9.

NFL.com has Kamara 5 and Barkley 6.

Ballers are 2-3 in favor of Kamara.

Christopher Harris has Barkley 5 and Kamara 6.

ESPN has Barkley 5 and Kamara 6.


#5

Okay but WHY is it so clear cut obvious that Barkley is better to people on these forums when Kamara is ranked higher more often (or even if they’re ranked neck-and-neck)?


#6

And answer me this: at 1.05 do you take Kamara or Barkley (12 team standard)?


#7

Hard question to answer, but I’d say it’s a combination of factors.

First, I suspect if you could get an honest answer from all if them, you’d find that a lot of rankers are more afraid of taking a risk on the unknown. It’s their livelihood after all.

2nd, unfortunately, not all ‘reputable’ experts are equal in how they evaluate a player. Frankly, some of them are borderline frauds. There’s a reason so many people were pushing Isaiah Crowell last year, and many of those same people now won’t touch him with a 10 foot pole. Very little changed. He’s the same mediocre talent (who half the industry insisted was a 2nd round talent because of a high YPC the previous year) on a mediocre team with a pass catching specialist sharing work.


#8

Easily Barkley, especially in Standard.


#9

And what about AB or Barkley at 1.05?


#10

I wouldn’t argue much with AB, but I’d personally take Barkley. The reason being that I like the WRs in the 2nd round far more than the RBs, and I’d prefer to get out of the first two rounds with 1 of each. I’d be much more comfortable with Barkley and Jones/Thomas/Allen/Adams than Brown and CMC/Cook/Mixon.


#11

People forget Kamara was riding the pine on rosters until the AD trade. Eventually he overtook Ingram.

This year, no Ingram for 4 games. They also don’t have a clear RB2. He’s going to see the ball just as much as Barkley, at least for 4 games if not more. When Ingram does return it still won’t matter. He’ll lose some touches for sure but Payton said he has no Problem using Kamara on returns and their SP’s is deep. He could take it to the house any given time. He did it last year. Barkley won’t be returning kicks. X factor for Kamara.

And it’s not just the better OL. It’s the downfield blocking. Go watch Kamara highlights and look at the blocking downfield. The Saints take uncommon pride blocking downfield. Their WR’s (barring Ginn) are big monsters. I don’t see Barkley getting that treatment.


#12
  1. Kamara did not overtake Ingram in terms of snaps or touches.

  2. Even if he did, Ingram was and will still be very involved. There is no such competition draining snaps and touches from Barkley. There is no real path to 300 touches for Kamara. Barkley is all but guaranteed 350+.

Barkley over Kamara is an easy call. Frankly, I don’t think it’s close.


#13

Kamara started getting more touches end the of season. It was a gradual increase and in the playoffs it ticked up even more. That will remain. There is also no guarantee they keep Ingram. He won’t be with the Saints next year and they don’t have a RND 1. They would NOT get a RND one for him but, they could get something decent, maybe a 3 or 4 and use that to bundle to get back in the first round.

People call me a dufus for even suggesting it but, if any of the other RB’s show up and someone offers something stupid like a 2nd it could go down. Some crazy moves happened last year nobody saw coming. I don’t see this being any crazier.

OL and the downfield blocking though are proven for Kamara. The touches don’t matter as much if the blocking is there. Just because Barkley may get 300 doesn’t mean as much if a RB is getting bigger chunks with less effort.


#14

The Saints and Peyton have a long history of using two (if not 3) RBs heavily. There’s very little chance he gets anything close to a feature back touches, which are guaranteed for Barkley.

If you take Kamara that high, he HAS to repeat historic efficieny not only to return value, but to even break even. There’s no margin for error. Not a bet I’m willing to make. I’ll bet on the one with both talent and opportunity.

Barkley’s volume advantage (given the obvious talent) gives him both the higher floor and higher ceiling.


#15

Go watch the highlights of Kamara and look at the blocking. Ignore Kamara and watch what is going on around him. The blocking is close to medieval as it gets. This is why Payton has a bunch of large monster WR’s barring Ginn. OBJ is not going to be blocking like MT I know that much. MT is a mauler downfield. End of the day, he doesn’t need equal amount of work if he is getting sprung. Barkley is exceptional but there is no evidence they are going to block for him with the same motivation. To each their own is all I can say. I will take the historical record of Kamara and the blocking over the speculation every single time.


#16

Basing a fantasy opinon around WR blocking is dubious at best. I’ll take volume over WR blocking any day of the week.

Also, using highlights as evidence in an argument isn’t going to carry much weight with me.


#17

Kamara is proven and a given. Barkley has done nothing and get this, he is already hurt. Screw that. I’m going with the rookie of the year every single time.


#18

You do you.


#19

Rookie of the year or unproven rookie? Really all it boils down to. Probably can’t go wrong with either one. Just depends on which side of the fence one stands on. Steady as she goes or riverboat gambler with a good hand.


#20

Your main point is “if he doesn’t repeat his statistically unlikely volume, he’s a failure”, but Andy Holloway’s article on Kamara addresses that a lot. Do you care to rebuttal the article in this thread? I like how you articulate your points and you seem to be very helpful and vocal here so it would be very helpful to see what you have to say about the article. Thanks!