From what I remember, receivers a couple years ago were valued more highly in dynasty than in redraft, and the receivers going in the mid to back of the first in redraft were the top picks in dynasty. The idea was that receivers play longer in the league with less wear and tear and are less likely to suffer injuries than running backs. Now though, running backs are dominating the early rounds. Would it be prudent to start taking more receivers early again such as Hopkins or Odell over some of the early running backs?
I think that depends on the format of the league, how many do you start at each position, whats the scoring, how many teams? If you are using a pick based draft then id probably go rb/wr/wr as there is still more depth at wr than rb.
I lost in the playoffs with Mahomes, Julio, Brown, Woods, Ertz, Ingram. I had bell all season and had to trade for ingram week 6 or something like that since i had no one at rb. We only start 1. Granted, this was week 14 where brown only got me 6 points and i was vs juju who scored 30, i lost by 12. Elliot, McCaffery, Barkley would have all won me the week.
So while i had studs at wr, i had the biggest problem at wr, target distribution. Top rbs are going to touch the ball 15-20+ times while top WRs might only touch the ball 6-10 times.
That’s a good point, and with running back receptions going up, the workhorse back is stronger and more important than ever. I just can’t help but shake the feeling that in 3 years I will be like I could have Deandre Hopkins right now, but instead I have Alvin Kamara or Melvin Gordon. Most of my leagues are 1 qb, 1 te, 2 wr, 2 rb, 2 flex half ppr. 12 teams.
I’m just now going to start in dynasty in a new league so I’m really wanting to look at this. Looking at guys like Michael Thomas and Nuk, there are only 2 or 3 RBs I’d take ahead of them. I think I’d trust Zeke and Saquon and maybe Gurley, though he already has, what, 4 years of tread taken off his body?
In our league we’ll start 3 WRs, 2 RBs and then have 3 flex spots (including 1 super flex). I’m guessing my strategy will be to get as many top tier or promising WRs as possible and rely on rookie drafts and waiver wire to get what RBs I need.
By the way, where is a good place to get good dynasty rankings?
Be careful with this strategy. The expectation is that there are no great RB prospects in 2019. Unlike the last couple years. Reality might be different…
I believe some WR absolutely are undervalued. OBJ seems to have lost value and I think he’s now attainable - whereas a year or two ago he was not. Anyone that gave up on Mike Evans from last year is kicking themselves. Anyone that gave up on Julio earlier this season is regretting it. This is all coming from the contender position.
The real difference is that RB are winning people championships. Having Thomas, OBJ, Evans on one team is great for value and longevity. But you gots to win with that lineup.
In my dynasty league there is a massive difference between RB1 and RB12 at the end of the year:
Not as much between WR1 and WR12:
**corrected screenshots. Reflects week 1-16
That’s a great point. I’ve heard the same thing. I guess my experience in redraft has been that I do pretty well at finding the RB value. This year it was Philip Lindsay, Marlon Mack, Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. There always seems to be someone who breaks onto the scene and if you’re paying attention you might nab them at the right time.
I agree with this. If you look at the age of the top running backs in the league right now, it is so young and there always seems to be young backs coming in taking over backfields. That hasn’t been happening with receivers. Is this just circumstance of strong running back draft classes or something sustainable. I think that’s the question. If every year has 3-4 rookie running backs that are fantasy relevant, I feel more comfortable getting stud receivers and rotating running backs every few years.
I wonder if there is good data on the hit rate of RB vs. WR. I feel like I have a better chance of drafting rookie RBs and getting good value than if I draft rookie WRs. First of all, it’s often year 3 before WRs blossom and RBs usually blossom in the first year or two, at least enough to see the potential. As high as people are on Cory Davis (and I’m a Titans’ fan), there’s still a fairly good chance that he ends up as basically a bust. Golladay has all the talent and skills in the world, but he may never make it into the top 15 WRs.
I think there are just as many busts for WR as there are at RB. But I too would be interested to see if there is a greater statistical hit rate for either WRs vs RBs.
If you drafted Rashaad Penny, Royce Freeman or Ronald Jones in 2019 you aren’t feeling good about it. Same if you drafted Samaje Perine, Joe Williams or D’Onta Foreman in 2018.
2019 had a particularly large amount of high end RB talent. Similar to 2014 for WR.
Based on everything I’ve consumed - each year is very different from the last. There is no commonality at positions year over year.
That’s the crazy thing about fantasy football is that the NFL changes so quickly it is very difficult to use the past to predict the future. Once there is a enough data to support a trend, the NFL swerves the opposite direction. Your best chance is almost just to zig and when everyone zags and hope you catch the wave at the right time.