this is mind boggling. i was checking ADPs today because i havent really looked at them in a while and i noticed this. barkley is going just before bell? thats insane! someone try to explain this. because youth is not THAT valuable. bell still has 4 years till he is 30 even.
He also has an INSANE amount of tred off his tires for a 26 year old RB. His work load has been astronomical.
He also likely won’t be behind a top 4 OL and in a top 4 offense next year, like he has been, which are huge advantages for an RB.
I think @DFWB nailed it. He has 1541 career touches between carries and receptions. Todd Gurley is the closest to that of the consensus top 4 RBs and he has 914 career touches. Historically, RBs tend to fall off a cliff after about 2200 carries so he’s well on his way.
Having said that, I’m the biggest Saquon Barkley believer you’ll find and I would be hesitant to choose him over Bell. I couldn’t blame anyone for doing it in dynasty though. I’m a Penn Stater, so I got to see up close and personal what he was able to do behind our swiss cheese line. I think behind a legit offensive line Barkley has a less than zero chance of being the best back in the league for the foreseeable future.
and i get all of these points. but is it enough? we havent seen barkley play pro football yet. and even by the touches, that puts bell at 2 to 3 more years before he hits that. bell, being the best back over the last 4 years, including an injury and a suspention. the guy is a fantasy football dream. even with him going somewhere else (which i think is inevitable so i get this argument more than most) he is so dynamic that so long as they dont try to change his running style, i really dont see him dipping in production that much. we have no idea how they will use barkley, how involved stewart will be (a minor complaint but one that should be brought up since he might get a lot of goalline work). i dunno, i would consider it even thinking about all of that, but i dont know if i could pass on bell if in sitting at 6. even in a dynasty. i guess its just something for me to ponder on. would it ever be worth it to take that risk? i guess if i really wanted to play the long game i would go barkley. but i have seen people just as talented bust. and thats my biggest concern. you know what you get with bell, even when he changes teams. we dont know what we have with barkley yet. dont get me wrong, i think he is well placed except for being in front of bell. because i would take him this high. i would hope for around pick 8, 9 or 10 is all. i know its a little thing talking about going back 2 spots. but man those 2 spots have bell and brown. just something to ponder thats for damn sure.
I have Bell in dynasty, and I have to admit… I’d do it. Bell’s contract situation gives me anxiety and I don’t know what kind of back he’ll be in 3 years. Saquon’s also the most talented RB prospect I’ve ever seen, so the unknown really doesn’t scare me. I think ultimately he’s just better than Lev Bell, he’s younger, and I have to assume that sooner than later he’ll prove to be a better franchise piece.
I’d calm down with the better than Bell talk until we’ve seen him take a snap, but the rest I get
I really do think he’s better. The only real advantage I’d give to Lev – and it is a big one – is that he can withstand a heavy workload better than any RB in the NFL. I don’t know if Saquon will ever be able to handle 30+ touches a game… I doubt he will. But just on a per-play basis, I do think Saquon’s better.
A better prospect, sure. He is not a better runner today than Bell. He just isn’t.
The NFL and the NCAA are not close to similar. We have no idea what Barkley is going to be or what the Giants offense will be.
Barkley simply has a much higher likelihood of success than most, but Bell is guaranteed success. I mean Barkley’s ceiling is what Bell has done every year.
I know everyone thinks Barkley is the new LT, but per touch or target Bell has been better than LT was. I mean back when LT played he averaged 300 carries per year. Nobody does that anymore.
I get that at some point you need to look to the future and take a prospect but as your first pick, you want nailed on production at a high level and you can project all you want the only way to know for sure is if a guy has done it at the pro level for ideally a couple of years at least. I get that Barkley is a physical beast and could be really really special, he also could be just an average starter. Don’t forget the Giants O-Line isn’t good, they have a couple of pieces but the rest is questionable. If he floats around low end RB1 numbers for his career would you be 100% happy, given the price i wouldn’t think most people would be.
I feel like the value around all rookie running backs is at fever pitch levels because of what Hunt, Fournette, McCaffrey, and especially Kamara did last year. Everyone in my league at least seems to be valuing guys in iffy situation like Rojo, Kerryon, Michel, Chubb, Freeman as locked in RB1s and expect that value back which is mad to me? I would pull the trigger on Barkley, Penny and Guice as my second running back if they fell that way which of course Barkley isn’t but the rest… i’m not getting blinded by last years rookie RB numbers and picking them assuming the same will happen over some more proven assets
I hear you. You definitely do assume a bit of risk anytime you choose a rookie over a proven vet. In terms of the other rookies in this class, I don’t see any first-year RB1’s. Maybe Guice or Penny, but I don’t see the rest getting enough early volume to make up for what they may gain late.
Long-term, though, I think there are at least 6 RBs who can be franchise backs. A few who I believe will be special… And those guys will never be as easy to acquire as they are now, outside of maybe Barkley. That’s why I try and really strike on the guys I believe in, despite being unproven.
In my dynasty, I just traded Drake for (essentially) Anthony Miller. I was also able to get an extra pick that I packaged for Courtland Sutton, but ultimately I believe so much in Miller that I had to make the move. Because if he is who I think he is, he won’t be available in two years. His value will be astronomical! So I went for him now, knowing I could capitalize on the immediate uncertainty. Very well could backfire, but I think I’m the end you have to trust your gut on a player. And to me, Saquon is just that unique.
It’s next to impossible for him to top what Bell’s done in year-one, but over time I expect he’ll prove to be better… And with 5 less years of NFL punishment under his belt, I think his dynasty value is just that much greater.
Yeah agree with your points, and if Saquon ends up in the right range towards the back of the first, i guess in the 8-12 range then i’d consider him there, you have to especially vs Cook who is coming back from injury, Gordon, Fournette and Hunt who some may not feel quite as comfortable with and shoot for the stars in Barkley there - can’t fault that approach, just over some of that proven elite talent in the first 8 picks i’d have a really hard time leaving that on the board.
I made the most in the start up draft of the run on rookie RBs, i had Guice and then took Miller, Kirk and Chark while everyone else was taking rookie RBs and some QBs and TEs oddly enough. Love Miller too and Kirk and like you say, WR especially people are unsure and combine that with a sky high value of even average RBs and you can get some serious poaching done on those guys, i couldn’t believe they all fell to me round after round.
Good points though and we’ll have to wait and see what Barkley can do! I hope he lives up to the hype from a fan of the game point of view for sure
@Ricky87, you can get into a lot of trouble looking for the future with RBs. It is the most unpredictable long term position, but one wrong choice can cripple a team.
I think you will be ok with Barkley, but would be better over the next 4 years with Bell.
I also VERY seriously doubt Barkley will be better than Bell long term.
There is essentially no chance he’s demonstrably better than Bell has been. Maybe you can have the Bell/DJ debate, where each side has some points, but it just doesn’t get much better. I do think there’s a real chance he’s better over the next 4 years though. Even potentially this year. Potentially. My concern with Bell is that the history of RBs with 400 touch seasons is kind of scary. He had 400 touches last year, and has had that or close several other times. His per touch efficiency was also down last year. Could be a blip. Could be a fluke. Could be all those touches catching up.
That’s my feeling as well! Bell’s volume is incredible. It’s what makes him so great… But it also puts him on a crash-course for injury and a sudden decline in production.
And like the Belichick philosophy; “Better a year early than a year late.”.
@James89 – Also love Kirk, BTW! Not only as a player, but where he went. It’s as ideal as it gets!
Yes hoping he will produce this year and learn for Fitz at the same time and be solid producer for me team for years, if Rosen pans out he should end up being his ‘guy’ as well from next year.
That’s the other thing, is I’m a big Rosen fan! Or endorser, I should say. I think he has all the tools to be great.
Its definitely surprising but understandable given his age. I personally don’t take that approach but most people drafting Barkley as if he has already accomplished what the top guys like Bell/DJ/Zeke/Gurley have done in multiple years. Barkley is not as good of a runner as any of them. His pass catching is what puts him over the top but it’s still a bit out there to me to draft someone who has yet to play an NFL down at his ceiling. I love Barkley as much as the next guy but man, its insane. It’s cause a lot of people are trying to win the next 5-6 years with one pick and see Bell as someone who only has 2-3 years left. But in my eyes, win today is better than a possible win tomorrow…
As a steelers fan, bell worries me, this constant contract issue at some point has to end. if he moves on to another team, there is no telling what kind of usage he will actually get. Realistically his potential has been harnessed in Pittsburgh. Saquan on the other hand is just so gifted and capable its hard to not want him so early in a dynasty format. the unknown makes him even more wanted.