Depends on how many other first-round talent players are kept. Not knowing that, and assuming most of your leaguemates won’t/wouldn’t keep first round talent in the first round:
- If you get a top-4 pick (33% chance), then you waste keeping AB. Cuz you’d get him anyway.
- If you get the 5/6/7 position (25% chance), odds are you’d either get AB (if he slips a spot or two) or get a guy of basically/arguably equal value (Julio, Odell, LeSean).
- If you get the #8 pick, well, it depends on how you feel about Evans vs AB.
- If you get a bottom-4 pick (33% chance), then you’ve assured pretty decent (to very pleasant) value for AB.
So… a 1-in-3 chance of getting desired, appreciable value for AB (4+ spots better than expected). Unless, you are dead set on getting him on your team. But…
No matter what pick you get in the 2nd round, you are getting at least 4 spots of value (the 1.09 – his ADP – to the 2.01). And you have a 92% chance of getting better value than that!
Of course, those 4-spot jumps aren’t apples to apples, but the chance of greater value is much higher with Evans. Plus, there’s a scenario where you can get both if you keep Evans… but no chance of it if you keep AB.