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Better Value: AB or Evans


#1

Hey Footclan-

Starting to prep for my 12 team Standard (0 pt PPR) league. We select 1 keeper and the penalty is the round they were selected last year.

Out of fairness, we select our keepers before we know the draft order. So, would you keep AB in the 1st (and hope I get a pick in the back half) or Evans in the 2nd (and hope for a top 4 pick)?

Would love to discuss in more detail if anyone has any thoughts!!


#2

Stick with AB, he’s proven, durable, skilled and a lock to be a top 3-5 WR. Go with the sure thing.


#3

Depends on how many other first-round talent players are kept. Not knowing that, and assuming most of your leaguemates won’t/wouldn’t keep first round talent in the first round:

Keeping AB…

  • If you get a top-4 pick (33% chance), then you waste keeping AB. Cuz you’d get him anyway.
  • If you get the 5/6/7 position (25% chance), odds are you’d either get AB (if he slips a spot or two) or get a guy of basically/arguably equal value (Julio, Odell, LeSean).
  • If you get the #8 pick, well, it depends on how you feel about Evans vs AB.
  • If you get a bottom-4 pick (33% chance), then you’ve assured pretty decent (to very pleasant) value for AB.

So… a 1-in-3 chance of getting desired, appreciable value for AB (4+ spots better than expected). Unless, you are dead set on getting him on your team. But…

Keeping Evans…
No matter what pick you get in the 2nd round, you are getting at least 4 spots of value (the 1.09 – his ADP – to the 2.01). And you have a 92% chance of getting better value than that!

Of course, those 4-spot jumps aren’t apples to apples, but the chance of greater value is much higher with Evans. Plus, there’s a scenario where you can get both if you keep Evans… but no chance of it if you keep AB.


#4

In a non-PPR league you run the risk of being VERY weak at the RB position. That can cripple your season.

Most important thing to do, run through the other team’s rosters and pick the keeper they are most likely to select. If you can’t decide for sure, make two scenarios and plan accordingly. That way you will know what to expect.

All things equal, I always prefer to have my 1st round open so I would take Evans.


#5

Mr_ButterFace- as always, you’re awesome - thank you very much for that response. I did a keeper assessment of who I’d keep on the other rosters and that removes: Lev, DJ, Zeke, Ajayi, Brady, michaelthomas, OBJ, Gillislee, Melvin G, and J. Howard.

I think the last sentence hits the nail on the head: “Plus, there’s a scenario where you can get both if you keep Evans…but no chance if you keep AB.”

Definitely leaning Evans…Thank you again Mr_ButterFace - looking forward to more discussions with you this year!!


#6

Great call on the rundown/assessment - that was what I really needed to do to get a full understanding. Once I did that and you see all the talent that’s gone already, I think the Evans value in the 2nd plus keeping the 1st round open becomes much more clear. Thank you Guinness!!


#7

The footclan takes care of it’s own. lol


#8

Personally I’d go with Evans. As Guinness said, it would be a good idea to go through each team and select which keeper you think they will pick. Since it’s one keeper, some people may feel inclined to take their best value rather than their top player in some circumstances (taking Jay Ajayi in the 8th, for example). Take a look at last previous years drafts and keepers (if you can) and take some notes on your league-mates; do they go with the best value? best player? do they favor or dislike a specific position or team? Using this information, and what you know about your league-mates to make your guesses (and maybe mock with your guesses!) As I said, I’m leaning Evan’s because if a ton of people are keeping RB’s then you’re going to want that first round pick open… otherwise you could have a gaping hole in your team if people are grabbing a lot of RB’s on top of all the keepers. Best of luck man!