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Better value: Tyreek Hill or AJ Green?


#1

Standard league. Have David Johnson & Demarco Murray as my first two keepers.

Do you all like the value of Tyreek Hill (for a 12th rounder) or AJ Green (for a second rounder) more?

Torn because Green is elite, but could keep my second round pick if I kept Hill for a 12th.


#2

Are you going to get a better player than AJ in the 2nd if you don’t keep him? If the answer to that is no, than I would keep him.


#3

i have gone back and forth a few times on this one. i keep hill. take the value, and roll the dice that you will get a comprable return in the second round. i mean if you have an early enough pick, you may even get him back in the first. but i roll with hill i think.


#4

Thanks Buster.

To Rob’s point, my question is more along the lines of…let’s say I draft at pick 18 – grab Dez Bryant. Is Dez or a second and Tyreek for a 12th better than AJ Green for a second?


#5

If you can get Dez I’d consider it. But I think the fear of AJ being on someone else’s team and burning me in the season would be too much.


#6

I had AJ on my team last year and, before he got hurt, he won me a few weeks. I think that Hill will be a tremendous player this year and I will draft him whenever possible, but he is no AJ.


#7

Always look at value. Will the difference in point value between AJ and who you would have had in the 12th greater than the difference between Hill in the 12th vs who you would have taken.
You have to play one of these lineups, who do you pick?
AJ Green and Taylor Gabriel
or
Dez Bryant and Tyreek Hill

I take Bryant and Hill personally.


#8

That straw man doesn’t work. Fact is, you can have AJ and Hill.

No arguing the value of Hill in the 14th and I appreciate value. But there are only a small handful of Top Tier RBs and Top Tier WRs. I want those players on my team.


#9

But now you are adding a 5th round pick for Hill and losing value for your 12th and losing the player you would be able to take in the 5th. You are trying to rob Peter to pay Paul.

My argument is not a manipulation or a lie @Harpersdad, those are the real ADPs from all human drafts. So with that, your choice becomes:
AJ Green, Tyreek Hill, and Taylor Gabriel
or
Dez Bryant, Tyreek Hill, and Kelvin Benjamin

That isn’t a guess, it is your bench options. Sub out any player of like ADP if you want. The value is the same.


#10

I really like Tyreek too. I drafted him one round ahead of his ADP in my league to make sure I got him.

Here’s a for instance, you have the 12th pick in a draft and you could keep DJ in that spot or Tyreek for a 14th round pick. I would argue that getting DJ just 11 spots beyond his ADP is a greater value than Tyreek in the 14th. The value these upper tier players carry is far greater than a 5th or 6th rounder.


#11

I guess I don’t understand your 5th round reference. Is that where you get Hill in a normal redraft?
AJ Green is a round 1 pick. If I could get him in Rd 2, I am thrilled.

My question, who would you rather roster?

DJ, Demarco, Green
DJ, Demarco, Dez


#12

hill is going in the 5th round. he is saying you have to equate the extra player you get in that spot instead of drafting hill, since you get hill in the 12th.

as for who would i rather roster between those two options? yeah the green one. but thats not the question that we are putting forth. because THAT question completely ignores hill in the equation.


#13

That is too short sighted, you have to construct a full roster. Not just the top 3 spots. Yes Hill is generally going in the 5th for Standard 12 team drafts.

@Rob43, I absolutely disagree. Yes DJ is great, but if you take Hill in the 14th you can still draft Freeman at the 1.12. Let me clarify, in this situation to me, taking Hill in the 14th round is like picking up an additional 5th round pick for free. Whereas if you take DJ, you don’t gain anything for free, you just get a really good value for your 1st.

Your flex spot will score more points over the season with Hill, than DJ would score more than a 1.12 value would. The sum of all your starting roster will be better with Hill.


#14

I am betting that AJ and whoever I put in the flex spot will outperform Dez (if you can get him in Rd 2, remember this is a keeper league). Of course, Gabriel would not be my likely flex. Why would a double digit draft pick be my first option at flex, after all?


#15

Dude you are totally missing the idea of value. @Guinness is providing the correct analysis: the comparison is would I rather have keeper 1 and keeper 2’s round pick, or keeper 2 and keeper 1’s round pick. It’s not a straw man, that’s what you are literally deciding between.

Now, that’s not to say that Dez is a realistic player that will be available in the 2nd in this kind of keeper league (more info may be needed to determine this), and that is not to say keeping Tyreek is the right answer. But that’s the analysis you need to do. Just saying “keep the higher ranked player regardless of draft capital” is extremely poor advice.


#16

No one is saying keep the higher ranked player regardless of draft capital. If you take out Tyreek and change that name to Michael Thomas, because that’s about where he went last year, then you keep Thomas hands down. I like Tyreek a lot, he’s got great upside. I drafted him ahead of his ADP to get him. But at the end of the day he’s unproven as a WR1 and we’ve only seen him in a very small sample size.


#17

I get the analysis that Guinness through out there. Biggest issue is that we don’t have enough information to make a complete analysis, but …

We can infer there are 36 keepers because he has DJ and Demarco already. He never said how they value keepers, so we don’t know if DJ is a first or 10th, same with Demarco. So with all of that in consideration, my net is that his round 2 pick might not even net a player of the caliber of Dez.

Unless I have more information that tells me I will have acceptable options for my round 2 pick, I keep AJ. Is that still flawed analysis?


#18

Green. No question. He is true elite


#19

Green for me too. Great value argument for Hill, but I can’t let Green go.