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Big Trade for AB


#1

I am on the weak side at RB after losing Guice, but pretty strong (And young) at WR. Sent Cooper and Juju for AB and Chubb. I also have Hyde, who’s a likely starter until he loses his job to my new rook. Thoughts?


#2

In a vacuum, I like the trade. Not sure about the situation for your team in particular although hard to comment without knowing remainder of your roster. Are you competitive this year?

Don’t see chubb contributing to your team this year though so that leaves about a 2 maybe 3 year window max for you to compete with AB once guice returns and you get a chance tor replenish RB core through rookie draft next year.

The one risk I see in this is that Hyde potentially doesn’t lose his job entirely. Chubb slowly works his way in and you’re basically stuck with 2 guys in a heavy committee, none of which you feel great about starting. And you’re just stuck with 2 guys you can’t play. I do think Chubb wins out eventually but this year, could be a nightmare scenario of just chubb and hyde rotating back and forth with neither producing while Duke steals all the passing down work.


#3

my only issue is you putting a lot of faith into the browns backfield. the browns look better on paper for sure. but im just not going to believe in them until i see it ya know? i would be willing to put some capital down on a player like laundry, but thats about it from them. otherwise, i really like that trade. AB still a beast and will be for another 4 or so years. i have no faith in cooper, and juju i love… but he aint an AB.


#4

I need to be right about Drake, but if I am, then I do think I’m a contender. I tend to think that Hyde is going to be the guy until he isn’t, but if that scenario came to pass where they’re both getting work, I’m probably in trouble.


#5

The more I watch Chubb, the more I’m convinced that he’s a star. He’s been slowing moving up my rookie board. Tbh, I wish I had some rookie drafts back. Because this kid is good. Really, really good.

I also really do think the Browns are about to turn a corner. They were a lot better than a 0 won team last year, other than th e absurd turnover ratio, and that’s about tango away. I also think they have a ton of real talent. Could this backfield gross this year? Definitely, but I think it’s worth the risk.


#6

I think you won this trade from a talent standpoint in getting the best player in the trade. However, I don’t see this really achieving your goal of improving you at RB. Basically prior to trade you had:

Juju and Cooper (Amari or Kupp?)
+
starting RB for Cleveland

Now you have:

Antonio Brown
+
Starting RB for Cleveland (best case scenario if Chubb fully takes over)

So your depth at RB didn’t really change all that much. Sure if Chubb were to take over and you were stuck with only Hyde that would suck, so you got yourself a handcuff, but a handcuff is more of an insurance policy than improvement IMO. Again, you won the trade cuz you have the best WR in football, but you still need to address your RB issue somehow.


#7

Addressing my RB depth wasn’t really the goal. This trade fell into my lap and the long term potential of Chubb was enough for me to risk sacrificing some youth and depth at WR and pick up the best receiver in football.


#8

i love the talent of chubb as well, but it is worrying the team he is on, with the depth that is there, and the play style of the current starting QB. i do 100% believe he will emerge at some point. so it being a dynasty makes me so much more comfortable with this. its why i say you still won the trade. cause the potential is there for chubb to really do well. i just meant im not a fan of having hyde, AND chubb. but i get the thought process and if it works out right, its a great play.


#9

Yea, the way this blows up is what @MikeMeUpp said. If it’s a committee, I’m in trouble.


#10

I am in agreement with you here. I mean if Chubb had landed anywhere else. Literally anywhere else, i would take him as me 1.02 in any rookie draft. I love the talent. Great vision, physical runner but his burst is what sets him apart. He absolutely explodes through holes and can take it the distance. Also has great balance and is incredibly tough to tackle. His situation is just awful though.

Talent wise, he wins out eventually but that is also a bet on Hue Jackson. Also, Todd Haley being there makes things worse for me. Dude had the best RB in football and still completely underperformed. He is not a running OC, he is a pass first OC.

Long story short, I agree with you on the talent, is it worth a risk? Debatable depending on your risk tolerance. But talent wise, you have 2 of the top 4 talents in the class. Just have to pray he wins out which I think might take longer than just this season.


#11

Going to have to disagree with you regarding Haley. Strongly. It wasn’t the offense that underperformed in Pitssburgh, it’s the defense and HC (the most overrated coach in football, in my opinion). Let’s take a look at some relevant offensive numbers for Pittsburgh:

2011 12th overall; 14th rushing

2012 21st overall; 26th rushing
-Haleys first year
-Rushing leaders include such luminaries as Jonathon Dwyer, and 51 attempts in 6 appearances from the ghost of Rashaad Mendenhall.
-13 games from Ben

2013 20th overall; 27th rushing
-Lev Bell’s fat rookie year

2014 2nd overall; 16th rushing
-16 games for Bell and Ben
-Bell 2200+ total yards and 11 TDs.

2015 3rd overall; 16th Rushing
-12 games of Ben, 6 of Bell
-Bell just under 700 yards and 3 TDs in 6 games
-D. Williams 1200+ total yards and 11 TDs in 11 games (10 starts)

2016 7th overall; 14th rushing
-14 games for Ben
-Bell 1800+ total yards and 9 TDs in 12 games

2017 3rd overall; 20th rushing
-Bell 1900 yards and 11 TDs in 15 games

*Note that this is total team rushing, so essentially every team with a rushing QB ends up ahead of Pitt every year (Seattle, Buffalo, Carolina, etc).

The Pittsburg offense, once they got a competent (granted, this is an understatement, but it’s well documented how well Williams did in that role as well) RB, was extremely productive and consistent, despite consistently missing either Ben or Bell or both over the course of Haley’s tenure.

Haley is not Sean McVay, but he’s absolutely a positive OC. Before he got there, the been in the top 15 offenses 3 times since 2002. They’ve been top 7 each of the past 4 seasons. Talent is for sure a big factor, but so is solid offensive scheme and play calling.

Haley was a classic scapegoat for a defensive head coach who can’t consistently put a competent defense on the field, despite spending all his draft capital on defense.


#12

Unclear to me how this shows Haley is not a pass first, run 2nd OC? From 2015-2017, they are middle of the pack or lower half of the league in rushing. Bell’s numbers I would argue are more of a factor of the Steelers offensive line and and Bell’s talent than Haley’s play calling. During that period, steelers have consistently had one of the best if not the best offensive line units in the league accompanied by one of the most talented running backs of this generation. I 100% agree with you that the steelers D has also completely shat the bed ever since Troy retired from the game. The physical defense from the first decade of the 2000s is no longer a thing.

HOWEVER, your general overview numbers don’t tell the whole story here at all and Haley’s offensive situational play calling is about as bad as they come. As someone who is an avid Bell fan, there was nothing more frustrating than watching Haley’s play calls, especially in the redzone. What matters most in football? Scoring. You can gather all the yards you want but if you can’t score, who gives a shit. Do you know how steelers ranked in red zone efficiency in 2017? 28th out of 32 teams. Tied with Baltimore, one of the worst offensives in the entire lag. That is absolutely ridiculous and there are no excuses for it when you have an offense as talented as they have. In 2017, do you know how many rushing attempts bell had on goal line / within 5 yards? 6. Do you know how many TD’s he scored on those attempts? 6. That is absolutely ridiculous that he is consistently calling these horrible pass plays when in the red zone and on the goal line when you have one of the best and most efficiency running backs and goal line backs in the league. If I had a dime for every time steelers got into scoring position and ended up shitting the bed and settling for field goals, I’d be rich. That is a product of Todd haley.

Sure Williams also produced in the year that Bell went down but Williams also wasn’t some scrub they pulled off the street. He also worked behind one of the leagues best offensive lines.

Haley got carried but the talent, not the other way around. So you’re right, Haley is not Sean McVay. Hell, Haley isn’t even Gruden. Haley is a mediocre OC at best who’s been getting carried by talent for the better part of a decade. Tomlin is also trash, no arguments with you there. That entire coaching staff has been drastically under performing for years but it’s been masked by their winning record, ability to make the playoffs, and just the spectacle the talent on the field puts on for the fans.

Is haley all of the problem? No. Is he a big part of the problem? Hell yes. Sure the defense needs to make plays and make stops but at the same time, the offense needs to score touchdowns in the redzone. Something that haley is apparently allergic too.

Steelers has been the most talented offensive team for the past 4 years and can’t even make a god damn superbowl appearance. They’ve had the leagues best RB, the leagues best WR, HOF QB, granted past his prime but still well above average. One of the top 5 OLs in the league. It’s pathetic.


#13

Let’s take a look at the carries. Copied my stat break down from above and added the carry counts and rankings.

2011 12th overall; 14th rushing

2012 21st overall; 26th rushing
-Haleys first year
-Rushing leaders include such luminaries as Jonathon Dwyer, and 51 attempts in 6 appearances from the ghost of Rashaad Mendenhall.
-13 games from Ben

2013 20th overall; 27th rushing
-Lev Bell’s fat rookie year
-Bell 12th in carries (212 in 13 games)

2014 2nd overall; 16th rushing
-16 games for Bell and Ben
-Bell 2200+ total yards and 11 TDs. 3rd in attempts (290 in 16 games)

2015 3rd overall; 16th Rushing
-12 games of Ben, 6 of Bell
-Bell just under 700 yards and 3 TDs in 6 games. 113 attempts in 6 games.
-D. Williams 1200+ total yards and 11 TDs in 11 games (10 starts). 20th in carries (200 in 10 games)

2016 7th overall; 14th rushing
-14 games for Ben
-Bell 1800+ total yards and 9 TDs in 12 games. 8th in carries (261 in 12 games).

2017 3rd overall; 20th rushing
-Bell 1900 yards and 11 TDs in 15 games. 1st in attempts. 321 in 15 games

Bell got as much work on the ground as any player in the league on a per game basis over those years. And that’s completely ignoring his work in the passing game (if your concern is Chubb not being a pass catcher, that’s possible, but it won’t be due to his skill set). The truth is that just about every OC is pass first these days. Haley also has a history of using 1 RB as opposed to a platoon. If Chubb wins the job, I think the workload is substantial.


#14

I think Chubb is a more than capable pass catcher. He’s limited there just cause of Duke, not talent or ability. My concern as I highlighted above, is Haley’s inability to competently play call in the redzone. If you have an RB who isn’t getting passing down work, then you need TDs. And Haley has proven again and again, he is incredibly incompetent when it comes to that area of field, especially when it comes to RBs. He’s just as likely to call a jetsweet to Callaway as he is calling a run play for Chubb up the middle. And to compound matters, its the browns where to be honest, scoring opportunities will be few and far in between.

None of the above still changes my opinion on Haley. The dude is incredibly overrated as an OC.

I hope I’m wrong because I actually own a lot of chubb shares. But those are in leagues where I don’t expect / need him to produce for at least a year if not more.


#15

Chubb is fantastic and I think will translate in the NFL. I think you made a smart move. AB alone for those two is a win. And Nick is icing. Well done IMHO.