Can Allen Robinson bounce back this year as WR1? I have the option to keep him this year. I have my concerns, part of it being poor QB play!
i say yes. but i dont think be bounces back to 1400 yards. i can see 1100 and 10 TDs. the 1400 yards thing was a freak season. he averaged 17 yards a reception for the whole year. the whole dasmn thing! thats just nuts. with the stabilization of their run game, that offense doesnt suck nearly as much. and i think that helps Robinson come back pretty hard.
Thanks for the info! Hopefully the Jags can establish a run game!
I definitely see positive regression from him this season. Will it end up being WR1 value? That I’m less confident in. His efficiency last year was abysmal after being fantastic the year prior. There really is nowhere else to go but up. The Jags seem to be showing signs of a shift in offensive philosophy. I think they will be a more conservative team built on a strong defense and an improved running game. Also, Marquise Lee took a step forward last year and Allen Hurns is still hanging around.
In the end I see Robinson firmly planted in the WR2 realm with a slight chance at low-end WR1 status if everything shakes out his way.
I pretty much agree with this sentiment. If you’re taking him as a WR2 I think he’s a very safe one, on the level with DT, who I also really like as a 3rd rounder.
I like to always remember that something like 9 of the top 10 wide receivers had a top 10 quarterback. I don’t forsee Bortles getting the garbage time he has in the past, and don’t forsee him being a top 10 QB.
I think the Jags have improved on both sides of the ball which could lead to Robinson being somewhere between a low end WR1 and a high end WR2. If you draft him is the 15th or 16th WR you will probably be happy with his production.
Robinson is one of the players I have been watching. He has talent, good speed, good catch radius, but he is just not a good WR.
He is going around guys like Jeffery and DT. The difference between all three players to me is target amount weighed against catch rate. What do they do when the ball is thrown their way, and how often does that happen?
Allen and Jeffery are the same player in my book (except for the injury thing). In the past 3 years both have had a single good season justifying draft position. In those good seasons they scored all those points through volume. Both have regressing catch rates every year. All 3 players have similar average yds/catch. Only DT has solid stats.
For Robinson to bounce back he has to either get 200+ targets, dramatically increase his catch rate (from 48% to 55% for 1000 yds or to 77% for 2015 numbers), or have another season averaging 17 yds/catch. Those are all very unlikely situations.