Currently being offered mike evans for evan engram amd tyler boyd in dynasty. My other WRs are julio, obj, and michael thomas, have 2 flexs so could stary evans too. My other TE is vance mcdonald.
I would likely make that deal.
I’m assuming you consider yourself a contender.
I do consider myself a contender. My only concern is that im not sure if evans will produce at a high enough level beyond engram and boyd
If you’re comparing production than I would take all players into account.
I’ll use an example to make it easier to share my perspective.
- Evans scores 250 points.
- Engram scores 150 points.
- Boyd scores 190 points.
Yes, together Engram and Boyd score 340 points (higher than Evans total production). But are all those 340 points accounted for in your starting roster? That’s really all that maters.
Maybe Vance scores 90 points. You do the Vance dance 2019 and now the difference between Engram and Vance is 60 points.
Maybe Boyd is not a regular starter. You play him in the flex half the year and account for 2/3 of his points - 125 points.
Now the math is Evans at 250 or Engram/Boyd at 185 points.
It’s presumptuous of me to think this exact scenario will come to fruition. But hopefully you see my process.
Take Evans and an upside TE and you are probably good. No knowing how NYG offense pans out and despite the injury to Green, I am not sure Boyd is just a WR1. I am a fan of Boyd BTW. Evans is the best player here. With your WR Corp it is ridiculous. IMHO it is take Evans.
I would take the Evans side you are getting a young started that has done nothing but produce 70+ receptions 1k yards in all 5 seasons he’s been in the league…At worst you can flip 1 of your top tier WR for players/positions you need later…Take the known value verse the perceived value…
Very very close trade. Engram is currently securely locked in as my TE2/3. I keep flipping back and forth between him and Kittle for that TE2 slot. Expecting Ertz regression and exepcting about 120-130 targets for Engram. People don’t know this and I tweeted this yesterday but Engram’s efficiency as a TE skyrocketed in his second season. Would’ve performed better had it not been for injuries. Here is his production from week 9-17 last season:
91.7 PFF Grade (1st among all TEs)
73.7% catch rate
3.04 Yards per route run (2nd)
10 YAC (1st with >20 receptions).
Lost OBJ in off season and now without shep/tate to begin the season. He is the WR1 on his own team.
Also absolutely love boyd. Checks all the boxes for me in my WR assessment model.
Love Mike Evans as well so def a tough choiec.
This might need to be broken into a separate thread, but when people talk about “Ertz regression”, what does that mean?
in 2018 he had 156 targets, 116 receptions, 1163 yards and 8 TD.
I believe, even with negative regression, he’s still TE2/3 overall in 2019.
At 90 receptions, 950 yards and 6 TDs he’d still be the TE3 overal in 2018. How much regression do people actually think will occur?
@MikeMeUpp So far Engram’s career catch percentage is 60.9%. With a potential 130 targets in 2019 that’s 79 catches. Do you expect higher than 1000 yards and 6 TDs for Engram?
You’re assuming Engram shows no progression and no improvement in his 3rd year in the league which would be a mistake. He has already shown drastic improvement in his 2nd season. looking at his weeks 9-17, that improvement is slapping you in the face, don’t ignore it. How can you assume a 60.9% catch rate? That’s averaging his hyper inefficient 1st season in which he was a rookie. If you just look at last season alone, his catch rate was over 70% and even better for the later half. If you want to conservatively assume 70% catch rate, you get 90 receptions. And Engram is WAY better after the catch than Ertz. So would expect higher yards per target / yards per catch as well for engram. So beyond that, it just comes down to TDs.
And when it comes to TDs I’m not just looking at stats, need to look at context. I’m also expecting Goedert to vulture some TDs and receptions. Another factor is eagles drafting JJAW who is a red zone threat, still have Jeffrey and bringing in DJax. The weapons is just way more crowded for Ertz than it is for Engram.
I still have Ertz as a top 4 TE. Still in that elite tier, I just prefer Engram to him given age and what he’s already demonstrated and wouldn’t shock me if he finished as TE2 overall behind kelce. And if you forced me to pick one player to outscore Kelce this season in particular, I’d pick Kittle or Engram.
Please do not interpret this an assassination attempt on Engram’s fantasy outlook. I’m high on him and patiently waiting for a top 6 TE performance.
I should have clarified. 60.9% is career average (2 years). I initially asked if his catch percentage was going to go up but removed it. I prefer not to “lead the witness”.
I don’t think 70% is conservative. I think it’s elite. Only 4 WR/TE had greater than 70% with 75 receptions in 2019. 9 players if you include RBs.
I think Engram IS elite. I’d bet his true catch % (normalizing for catches deemed catchable) is on par if not better than Ertz. The dude is a freak. I picked him off waivers after watching him in 1 week in his rookie season and it paid off huge for me and have been high on him since. I didn’t draft him at all last season cause price was out of control but now price has over reacted.
Like I said, he’s my TE2/3 behind Kelce. His performance from weeks 9-17 last season was on par if not better than Kittle tbh. But he is on a worse team so you do have to account for that.
And I think 120-125 targets is a very realistic target for him. I wouldn’t be shocked if he flirted with 140 targets. And given how giants use him, he does run out wide quite a bit. I think he can definitely get up to 14 yards per catch as well. And he’s only in his 3rd season and dude is an absolute athletic freak. Love everything about him.
The one major risk I do see is if giants just decide to start Daniel Jones right away. The offense also won’t be scoring too much but when they do get in redzone, no doubt he is the top red zone target on the team.
1k-1200 yards with about 5-8 TDs is in the realm of possibility for Engram. And that is the TE1 upside.