Brees Dak or Darnold this week?!

Who would you go with?!

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It’s a tough call. I have Dak and Darnold and I’m not sure either.

I’d go Brees

I go Darnold. My QB model has him projected to be the QB10 this week. The other two have tough match ups and project much lower: Brees is QB24 and Dak QB16. Right now Darnold actually projects slightly higher than Dak for the next three weeks, but Dak is the projected QB8 through Weeks 15 & 16. You can straight drop Brees IMO. He has under-performed vs. expectation since he’s returned, his remaining schedule is seventh-hardest for fantasy QBs per FantasyPros, and my model has him projected to be the QB25 RoS. My full QB model is below for reference.

You can see that and my models for TEs and DSTs in my Week 12 streaming post here; feedback and comments welcome. Good luck!

This model told me to start Kyle Allen over Kyler Murray last week… F that frankly lmao

I’d say go Dak. He’s on fire and honestly that matters more than analytic bullshit.

In fairness, I think my model told you to avoid them both, and I did not recommend anyone start Kyle Allen. Many analysts had Kyle Allen as a good streamer last week based on his match up with Atlanta, but my model projected him to the QB18, which means he was effectively unplayable in a 12-team league.

You’re right that it projected Murray even lower - it had him as the QB23 - but he was playing San Francisco who was giving up the second-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing QBs on the year, behind only New England. Analytics and analysts all agreed Murray was likely to have a tough time against that defense. There was no practical way to project that outcome that I know of. The game comes with variance, so it’s not really reasonable to pick a case where an outcome was different than what was projected and say analytics don’t work. My $0.02 anyway. Good luck.

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Oh I understand. Wasn’t trying to give you a hard time man. I appreciate the effort you put into the analytics. Wasn’t trying to be an asshole I’m just salty :stuck_out_tongue:

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Fair enough. I know the feeling well. :joy: