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Carson V. Dak, An eagles fan's biased look


#1

(It’s probably very apparent already that I am an eagles fan, and as such, I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t spend some time hating on the cowboys.)

I’ve been looking over a lot of projections for fantasy QB’s and for the life of me I cannot figure out why there is such a discrepancy between Carson Wentz’s projections and Dak Prescott’s projections (from here on out they will be referred to by first name only because me Carson and Dak are buddies.) I get that Dak had a VERY productive fantasy year last year and Carson left players a little…wanting, but at a quick glance this off season I can’t at all understand how people are projecting those trends to continue. Both are second year players, both are in the same division, and both have something to prove, so lets delve into some comparisons on these guys and figure out why everyone loves Dak and why Carson is sailing under the radar.

A look at the eagle’s off season:

The eagles were absolute sweaty garbage in the receiving department last year. Not sort of sweaty. Not kind of garbage. ABSOLUTE SWEATY GARBAGE. Red zone efficiency was horrible, drops were rampant, mental game was shaky at best. So, this off season the team shelled cash dollars to bring a red zone monster of a WR in Alshon Jeffery and a deep ball pro In Torrey Smith. Adding two veteran wide outs will pull pressure off Jordan Matthews (a guy who has no problem hitting 8 touchdowns a season) and Zach Ertz (a top 5 TE last season) mid field, and if those guys are ALL in check, there still is the possibility of passing to the RB which is something the team should excel at with Darren Sproles and Darren Sproles lite (Donnell Pumphrey). All I see there are the touchdown/yardage equivalent of dollar signs in my eyes.

As if that wasn’t enough, they added depth on the offensive line (a line that pro football focus is projecting to be the best in the league this year*) and will have their starting left tackle back in Lane Johnson (a guy that directly impacted the eagles success rate with a 5-1 record with him on the field and 2-8 when he was not on the field.) *yeah ok I get it, it’s way too early to accurately make these calls but it’s still a f

All these changes should easily equal out to a passing game that will remain high volume with better red zone targets, less drops, and more accurate passing without Carson having to scramble as much from the pocket. If you can’t see the narrative for a solid passing year there, then I’m not sure what to tell you.

Now for the Dak hate:

I cannot argue that Dak’s season was phenomenal last year. He was very efficient with his throws, had an extremely low turnover rate, and was playing behind one of the leagues best offensive lines which gave him plenty of time to best execute every throw/run.

This offseason has seen very little change for Dak except the decline of the cowboys amazing offensive line. With a retired Doug Free and a traded Ronald Leary, Dallas’ line took some hits and left at least one major hole in the left guard spot. This won’t spell disaster for the cowboys offense, but it certainly won’t operate as smoothly as it did before, and with one of the worst schedules for a passer, I don’t see a future where Dak is in the top three for fewest interceptions at the end of the season (like some of our esteemed fantasy footballers have projected him.)

On top of poking holes in the o-line, Dallas has done nothing to shore up the numbers in their receiving corps, leaving the only big name to be Dez Bryant. Cole Beasley had a good rapport with Dak last season so that helps, but with an aging (ageless?) Jason Witten and no other real names in town, receivers are thin for the cowboys. Sure, Zeke is solid in the receiving game, but most defenses know where Dallas’ weapons are and will plan appropriately.

Overall, I just don’t know how Dak is ranked so highly in projections and Carson Wentz is sooo low comparatively. I’ve heard nothing but extremely positive things coming from fantasy pros all around about Dak and the only way to buy into that idea is that Dak is a truly elite NFL talent, and frankly, one year of accurately tossing passes does not a QB 1 make (cough cough 2013-Nick-Foles cough cough).

If you’re at your draft a QB 2 spot comes rolling around, hopefully this helps direct you towards a QB with some real upside and not just a guy who will be ok on the season!


#2

i must say, you make some exellent points. but the only problem about it is, those are all on paper type things. dak did have a lot more going for him that wentz, hands down. but the one thing i can say for sure dak was better at, the eyeball test. when nick foles had that great season, no one was look ohh wow look at this stud. i mean some people sure but if you watched, you could see his biggest weakness. get him out of the pocket, move him even an inch and he is garbage. when i watch dak play, i dont see that. i see someone who just wows. sure its easier to wow when you have time, thats a given. but dak towards the end was also making time for himself. with calling out the defense, audibles, and moving outside of the pocket. and he was damn good at it. so their o line isnt the best in the NFL anymore. its still probably a top ten. thats still damn good. he still has one of the most promising RBs behind him, and a top flight WR in dez. he has his slot guy in cole who is deceptively good, and father time himself mr witten. he still has his weapons around him he had last year, just his protection is going to break down faster. but with age comes experience, and more experience will give him the ability to get over that. then the biggest thing in my mind, is they focused their draft on upgrading the D. and i think they did a damn good job. better D also means more time to figure things out, and be well rested.

wentz i will tell you, i didnt watch a lot of his stuff so i cant go into great detail. but when i did watch him, he was good. not great, just good. he made his rookie mistakes, and had a pretty bad cast around him. now he had the part timer jeffery there, and smith who just hasnt produced the last few years. adding pieces is not always a good thing. im not saying wentz doesnt have the potential to be an NFL great. i saw flashes where i did go wow, but it was sporadic. all im saying is that dak is still in the better spot, with a better team, and he has wowed all season long. to me, thats why everyone is talking about dak and not wentz. just my opinion, hope it potentially sheds some light on it.


#3

Hey, I appreciate the feed back! I love discussion on stuff like this. Yeah, you make very good points about Smith and Jeffrey (sounds like a lawfirm instead of a WR duo). I hope Jeffery can manage to stay on the field a little more than usual, but his contract really incentive heavy, so that should help give him a push towards maintaining his health. If I could give an excuse for Smith’s low productive, I would like to bring up the poopy 49’s. But, Dak certainly does have some good moves on him and as a cowboys hater I don’t like to admit he definitely is extremely talented.

I guess we should revisit this after the season and see what the outcome is! Maybe even throw a friendly water bet on end of season production! :wink:


#4

haha im more than willing to do that. i love this kind of stuff too.

i already have one water bet going on from this forum, why not another? haha whats your bet sir? or is it a wait and see?


#5

I do hereby bet that Carson Wentz will outscore Dak Prescott in total fantasy points at the end of the seaon! (barring any crazy injuries in which case, higher fantasy points/game at the end of the season?)