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Commish changed our league to keeper - need help


#1

All right guys, our commish is changing our league to keeper and also changing up our roster selections. We get 1 keeper, no penalty (which I don’t like) and our roster is going to:

1 qb
1 rb
1 wr
3 rb/wr/te
1 te
1 dst
1 k

the big change is down to 1 rb/wr and up to 3 flex. It’s a half ppr league, so I’m not sure how I should draft for the flex.

My keeper problem is do I keep Mike Evans or Demarco Murray - I’m expecting a drop in production from both this season, given their situations. I’m also drafting 9th out of 12. We don’t have to have our keepers locked in until draft day - so I can vaguely project who’ll already be gone, if you need to know.

Thanks!


#2

Is there a limit/max year rule on how long you keep them? Evans has more long term value . Always have to worry about Murray getting hurt…so yeah…i guess I’d keep Evans


#3

no limit/max rule


#4

Yeah evans is slightly less risky in my opinion. Im keeing him in a full PPR league for my 2nd round. I dont think hes gonna “regress” as much as everyone thinks. He cant get double teamed as much anymore with the deep threat of desean jackson and just an overall improvement of the offense. Hes a redzone MONSTER and just a one on one nightmare for DBs.

Demarco is still going to be a workhorse for the Titans this year but the scare is how many redzone touches is Derrick Henry going to steal from him. With that said If a ton of backs are being kept it might be best to keep him. I dont know the situation.

Personally i think you should wait on QB and TE and draft the best RB or WR on your rankings each round until you see really good value at those individual postions (QB and TE). Grab guys like woodhead, riddick, those PPR guys later in drafts.


#5

@Ndorsey5 yeah you are right about Evans. He has great numbers for the metrics that are generally pretty consistent.

I disagree with you about Murray, all signs so far this season point to an RBC instead of a bell cow.

@justjoddat, what are your possible keepers and their cost?


#6

@Guinness you really think its going to be an RBBC when demarco has been nothing but productive over the last 4 years minus a rough year with philly. Hes under contract to 2020. Im just not sold that they would split it as evenly as you seem to expect. Id love to hear more because maybe ill target henry lol


#7

@Guinness there are no costs to our keeper in our league…it’s just a pick a guy from your previous roster the only guys worth keeping are Evans/Demarco, since there’s no penalty…I also have Watkins and Lamar Miller - but I know I can prob get one of those guys in the 2nd or 3rd.

@Ndorsey5 I always wait on QB and TE…just wasn’t sure what’s more valuable with 3 flex options in half ppr…early rbs who get a lot of work, or wrs like landry/tate who get a ton of catches

And now that I’m thinking about it, a guy like Evans will be hard to find if I throw him out…but I can get an RB that’s close to Demarco, or maybe even get Demarco back since I’m drafting 9th out of 12.


#8

Its Mike Evans and only Evans if there is no penalty. He will be more productive for a longer period of time.


#9

@justjoddat, oh ok the keepers don’t take up a draft spot.

@Ndorsey5 so here comes the analysis.


We can compare this to Murray’s 4.4 YPC and his Red Zone Stats:

Henry is actually more productive per touch. In TEN’s eyes all he needs is more touches. I am not saying 50/50 split, but I think enough that I am not spending a first rounder on Murray. I would spend one on Evans


#10

@Guinness Yeah but a lot of that was toward the end of the year when murray was suffering through that injury. I think these numbers would be significantly lower if Murray was in the same form he was weeks 1-8. #1 back in fantasy during that stretch.

Idk i see the skepticism but i think its stretched too far


#11

It very well could be, I am just comparing him to Evans.


#12

oh yes haha, sorry i agree there evans>murray. I was just kind of arguing murray in general not comparing him to evans


#13

I like Murray, just not in the first round as we don’t know what the timeshare will be. I suspect it will be closer to 70/30 or 60/40.