Darnold or Brees?!

Who would you go with?!

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Apologies for the long-ish answer, but my answer is a bit spicy, so I did some additional checking and wanted to give all the details.

My model has Darnold projected to be the QB10 (and is one of my streaming recommendations in my streaming post this week), and Brees is projected to be the QB24(!). I think these are pretty hot takes, and often when my projections differ considerably from what other analysts are saying, I will dig in a little more to see if there are mitigating circumstances.

For example, my model is based on data for the full season, so I checked recent trends for the QB’s upcoming opponents using the Baller’s Stream Finder and did not see anything to indicate a recent change in performance nor is there any other mitigating information about any of the teams such as a major injury that would make me reconsider what the models are projecting. So even though it differs quite a bit from what many experts are saying, including the Ballers, personally I would go with Darnold. Again, it’s a bit of a contrarian take, so take it for what it’s worth. My full QB model is below for reference. Good luck whatever you decide!

-Dan
Please check out my Week 12 streaming post here where I provide weekly and rest-of-season rankings, scoring projections and waiver recommendations for QBs, TEs and DSTs. Comments and feedback are welcome. Good luck!