Deciding between multiple offers for Chris Carson

Interest in Carson is at a season high after 3 solid performances and workhorse numbers of touches. I see some downside in a return of Penny to split some carries, the loss of Dissly adding some pressure to the box, and a less than great schedule for the rest of fantasy regular season for RBs.

I have 3 offers on the table:

A - Mixon + D. Adams for Carson + Mike Williams. I have asked them to include J. Crowder and they are considering it (I would drop Lazard or Hardman).
Analysis: This is trading actual production for two theoretical turnarounds. Mixon is a drop off from RB10 to RB35, but a 2nd round ADP with decent upcoming schedule and hope for a turnaround with A.J. Green returning to reduce pressure on the box. Adams may eventually realize his potential for a RB1-5 for the rest of the season (but may also be out for another week or two). Crowder has 26 targets in two games with Darnold at QB.

B - Gurley + Evans for Carson + T. Boyd
Analysis: Gurley is the RB18 with Brown as a handcuff, providing me a better RB option and higher ADP than Mixon (though Henderson is a wild card). Evans is the WR7 (RD3 ADP), though is on a bye and I see greater upside for Adams (RD1 ADP), who comes at a lesser cost (M. Williams vs T. Boyd - note that I see T. Boyd improving once A.J. Green returns due to top CB shadowing Green. On the downside, I don’t really want to start two Bengals).

C - T. Coleman + G. Tate for Carson
Analysis: Despite the lower draft capital for each, this feels like the safest trade with Coleman getting the most touches on the ground and in the air in the #1 RB rushing team in the NFL and past his bye (though OL and FB injuries and splitting carries may limit breakout potential). Tate had a strong second game back and should benefit from taking most of Shepard’s touches in the slot. Both feel like solid week-to-week contributors, but without the big RB/WR1 week potential. I may be able to leverage the other trades into the inclusion of Kyler Murray (who is on their bench) for one of my WRs. That said, I don’t like Kyler’s schedule for 4 of the next 6 weeks (2 vs SF, 1 vs NO, and a bye).

I am 1-5, hurting from the QB injury impact to my RD1/2 picks, and am in need of some WR upside. My roster is as follows:

QB - Goff (who I like for the next 2 games)
RB - Kamara, Carson, M. Sanders, M. Brown, C. Edmonds, A. Mattison
WR - Juju (whose schedule I like after the bye, even with Rudolph at QB), T. Boyd, M. Williams, P. Dorsett, M. Hardman, A. Lazard
TE - M. Andrews (I just dropped Dissly)

I am going to accept one of these trades. Which one is it?

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I like the last 2 more than the first. Getting Gurley and Evans could be way in your favor if they both play like expected at the start of the year and i do really like tevin coleman but the golden tate addition doesnt move the needle to much in my opinion

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Definitely wouldn’t do the first, even if I get Adams out of it. Mixon has been burying owners and Mike Williams has been super injury prone, don’t love his ceiling with Hunter Henry back and the offense underachieving.

Second one is super volatile but the upside is real. I’m still fairly bullish on Evans levelling off into his normal consistent self, but Gurley is a huge red flag.

I like Coleman in the third trade but it’s just the dude trying to capitalize on Tate’s big game. Engram and Shep both missed that game, don’t see Tate’s ceiling any higher than soneone like Boyd’s.

I personally would go with the second one. Kamara should bounce back to offset Gurley’s inconsistency and even if Evans was to remain volatile, you already have plenty of safe floor guys at WR

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Thanks for the feedback. I also don’t feel great about Mixon. But I’d almost consider trading Carson for Adams one-for-one if Adams was guaranteed to play.

Given my concerns about Carson (schedule, loss of a receiving TE, return of Penny), I could see Coleman outplaying Carson over the remainder of the year. I am also pretty high on Tate becoming the Giants WR1 on a team that will often have to come from behind (but yes, see downside from the return of Barkley and others).

The Gurley/Evans offer is getting cold feet. I’m going to see if I can lock that down, even though it puts me in a bad spot this week (with Juju and Evans on byes). Both Gurley and Evans have the 30-40 point weekly breakout potential that I am looking for/missing. High risk with the Gurley injury concerns, but high reward. Not much to lose at 1-5.

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I don’t like any of your current WR core. I’m guessing that’s the cause of your 1-5 record. There’s other things, sure. I have…er, had Dissly too. But it’s all volatility through your wide outs. All of them; except Lazard because that shows just starting.

I’m higher on Tate than most people but overall I think your best option is the first.

I painfully remember owning Davante Adams in 2015 when he injured his ankle. He came back as an apparent decoy and imploded my team. He doesn’t heal well. But Williams doesn’t stay healthy well. So there’s some balance there. And I agree with your analysis of Mixon AND Crowder. I think I’d need him included to balance Carson’s current value and production

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Injuries to Kamara’s (my RD1) and Juju’s (my RD2) QBs have been killers.

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We’re entering Week 7, ADP does not matter

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I know brother. Ten toes down. The only reason I’m breathing is because I snapped up NE DEF week 2. Chasing Chiefs and overthinking has been rekkin me

@Fluffykiin23 that’s true but I think he was just providing a little context for us to avoid snap judgement

I think ADP remains useful in constructing and evaluating a ceiling. Much like comparing a fallen stock to its all time highs. Doesn’t mean the player/stock will get there, but they’ve demonstrated the ability to reach those heights. Then you evaluate whether the thesis/inputs to the ability to reach those heights has changed.

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Exactly; context
:nerd_face:

@natethenate yeah this far into the season, ADP is largely irrelevant; it helps evaluate upside early on when upside is still tangeable during a buy-low window, but a Mixon or Juju owner/buyer shouldn’t be banking on a 180 barring a hugely relevant and positive change to a player’s situation. You shouldn’t be seeing Gurley as a 40 pt ceiling guy anymore either.

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Wouldn’t do any of these personally. Trading Carson is a mistake in my eyes unless you trade him as a top 5 RB. I traded for Carson in all of my leagues after the 3 fumbles game and have since been laughing to the bank.

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I have started Carson every week. I am 1-5. :joy:

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Yea he killed you the first 3 weeks but at this point he’s a premier back. Not saying don’t trade him but I’d want fair value for a top 5 rest of season RB which is what I’d be selling him as.

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He has two #1 backs, provided Kamara gets healthy. He has a group of barely #2 wide receivers.

Yeah it obviously sucks to lose Carson, but at 1-5 you can’t blame him for not wanting to remain stagnant. That’s really his only bargaining chip for atleast a change if not turn it around

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I agree with you however in trade B he’s trading what is probably his best WR away. Swap out Boyd for Williams and that’d be an ok trade. Trade C he’s not getting nearly enough value. You could argue G. Tate would never be in his lineup and Coleman for Carson is ludicrous. Trade A is probably the closest but he’s then buying on Mixon which IMO is a terrible move plus as he stated he’d be starting two Bengals. Lastly for trade A he’s clearly in win now mode and no one really knows the severity of D. Adams injury.

Trade Carson! However get more value.

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Precisely. I am downgrading at RB to upgrade at WR. The hope is that the incoming RB performs at a higher ceiling than current production to more than offset the outgoing RB. But as it stands, my two top 10 RBs aren’t winning me any games due to lack of WR production.

20PPG from Carson has me 0-3 in the last 3 games.

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That’s true. I did forget that bit. And yeah Devante isn’t bounce back friendly. And that’s rough but he said he was taking one of those trades. Of the three, if Crowder is included, that seems the best shot.

I really like the third but it kind of defeats the purpose downgrading a RB to gain Tate. Coleman is really good. And I do like Tate alot GO IRISH! but there’s alot of uncertainty there. I think the Giants will be better with Tate there and alot of pieces coming back. But it’s unlikely to get the production commanded by trading Carson for him

Update: Mixon was dealt to someone else, which nixed option 1. The Gurley/Evans owner got cold feet and pulled back on Evans.

I ended up trading Carson + M. Williams + Goff for Coleman + G. Tate + Kyler Murray.

Carson is a stud and Coleman is a downgrade. But, I don’t like Carson’s schedule and the impact from the Dissly loss and Penny return. Carson also gets game-scripted out in the come-from-behind passing game. Coleman is just getting started after his return from injury and will get touches on the ground, in the air, and at the goal line.

M. Williams has had lingering injuries (and MISSED THE MIAMI GAME), has been inconsistent, has dropped a ton of passes, and is seeing his role diminished with the additions of Henry and Gordon. He only cracked my weak WR starting lineup once. I’m happy to have G. Tate, a potential Giants WR #1 on a team that will have to pass a lot, and has already shown great success from the slot, in replacement of Williams. I see Tate as more consistent on a week to week basis and with a higher ceiling than Williams.

Goff is the QB16 and Murray is the QB8. Murray scored 40 last week when his receivers finally saw the end zone. They both have positive matchups this week (#32 and #31 passing defenses), but Goff has the better schedule over the next 6 weeks (Murray plays SF twice, NO once, and has a bye in that span). I may look to pick up Newton or Darnold off of waivers, then flip Murray after this weekend (maybe even with Tate) as there are at least two teams with WR assets that want Murray.

I gave up the best player and got some uncertainty. The risk is I continue to lose 5 out of every 6 games. The reward is a hot streak that puts me back in the picture and valuable trade assets.

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