I’m huge on Demarious Thomas. Is he worth a late 2nd or 3rd rounder with the mess in Denver?
I wouldn’t do a 3 but I think a 4 is fair and where he is landing in most expert mocks. Anything lower than a 4 would be a steal, I think. 2nd round talent that gets killed because of his QB.
It isn’t just his QB, he is getting older and losing a step.
The last three years has seen a decline in every measurable except for fumbles. This trend in conjunction with losses to the O-line and QB issues does not spell success. I believe there is a strong change he doesn’t break 1000 yds.
Essentially, 2014 was Manning’s last year. Targets and game scripts tell the tale IMO. They aren’t a gun slinging team as they were in 2014. Regardless, I’m not a believer in the workload, so will not have him on many of my teams.
Love his talent, but not his situation. Kind of the same way I feel about Gurley. If the other team can plan for him, that’s not good. I’d take Crabtree over D. Thomas personally.
Thanks for all the replies everyone. I definitely won’t reach for DT
Hopefully my picture worked here. According to fantasy football calculator, DT is going in the 4th round and guys going after him are Crabtree, Watkins, Keenan Allen and Martavis Bryant just to name a few. I think I would almost rather all those guys over DT except maybe Allen but that’s cause I’m a little bitter on him lol
Allen will either be huge this year or get injured and you wasted a draft pick. Got to risk it for the biscuit.
Getting him then is a bit of a stretch, as he’s currently going about 35th in 12-team PPR (so, late 3rd round). If this isn’t a keeper scenario, I wouldn’t draft him in the 2nd round no matter what. You’re all but guaranteed to get him in the 3rd round, whatever your pick.
Also consider that if you have a late-2nd round pick, then you should have an early(ish) 3rd round pick. Further lowering the risk that he’d get nabbed before you could draft him with your 3rd pick.
That said, if you love his talent (which he has in bucketfulls), do what you have to do to get him. Within reason. Reports of his decline are vastly overstated. He’s had two very good (not great, but still…) seasons in '15 & '16 with Old Man Peyton and Paxton/Siemian slowly growing into their roles. He’s still 29. Hard to see his 2016 numbers as anything less than a baseline for 2017. Especially if CJ returns to health and form and puts up solid numbers.
@Mr_ButterFace, I don’t really see how his decline is overstated. Every trend you can think of is working against Thomas. I am interested in seeing how you project those as baseline numbers.
Manning, while having a noodle arm, created opportunities through his reads at the line. He was the best in the NFL at maximizing potential from his WRs. He helped raise DT’s stats.
CJ Anderson, while passing the eye test, does not put up great numbers. He is good, don’t misunderstand, but not good enough to make a difference in the passing game. Charles is…if he is still as fast…if he stays healthy. I also still believe we haven’t seen the last of Booker. Off topic.
Most ADPs right now have faulty numbers because sites like Fantasyfootballcalculator.com fill in blank spots in mock drafts with automated players. So whoever’s projections those computers run off of tend to raise or lower trends. That being said…most all human drafts I am seeing have him going early to mid 3rd round in PPR leagues. Which only further lowers his value to me.
I was born in Denver so this is hard to say, but a decline is looking like a very safe bet.
I definitely could be wrong – especially if you’re in Denver! And I haven’t kept as close an eye on DT since he was last on my squad (in 2014, too costly since then). Oh, and my shine on DT is as a high-end WR2. Not a WR1. But I think “high-end WR2” was about his expected value last season too.
My reasoning for maintaining that WR 13-17 level…
While 2014 was certainly a high water mark, DT’s past two seasons have been with Old Man Peyton and the Brock Lobster followed by a pair of guys with little-to-no experience starting in the NFL. So…
I figure 2017 should offer DT a better QB throwing him the ball – whichever guy Denver goes with, you’ve gotta expect a year-over-year improvement because of game-experience and familiarity with the team’s offense.
A healthy CJ Anderson has better yards per carry than anyone else Denver could find last year, which’ll hopefully keep defenses honest. But I was thinking more of CJA’s benefit being from…
Pass Block Efficiency. I remember hearing that Anderson had a decent rank in this. Only article I could find uses old numbers but has CJA ranked 21 (of 62) while Charles is 30 and Booker is 41. Anderson might not be elite, but that’s a considerable difference.
Consistency – DT doesn’t miss games, and seems to always be a lock for 5+ TDs and 1000+ yards (thanks UDK). Even last year’s poopy TD numbers left him at WR16 in PPR (“new standard”) and WR19 (old) standard.
I don’t know the number, but it seems like (really good) WRs don’t show much of a decline until well into their 30s. DT’s only 30. (I think.) Plus he went to Georgia Tech, so they probably injected him with the same superhuman serum they gave Megatron. And Reception Perception makes it sound like he’s still improving in some metrics: breaking tackles after the catch and his contested catch conversion rate. (I don’t know what those mean, but it sounds good that he’s still improving.)
None of those guarantee anything, but if I go with some combination of WR/RB with my first two picks, I’m not too upset if I get DT as my WR2 this year. The same is probably true if I go RB/RB with my first two picks, as I’d want to be getting a consistent, high-floor option when I finally grab a WR.
Thoughts, @Guinness? Interested to hear more of the word around Denver on his prospects this season.
I totally forgot about pass blocking. I am ashamed.
I was born in Denver, but am currently in Houston. With that in mind, I can’t remember the last time where there was a QB contest to start the season and one of them turned into a solid option.
Look at a guy like Hopkins. Huge talent with QBs that just cannot get him the ball.
Hopkins QBs: Brock Osweiler, Tom Savage, Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, T. J. Yates, Brandon Weeden, Ryan Fitzpatrick,Case Keenum, Matt Schaub. 2014 and 2015, Hopkins was great.
Pryor last year, Gordon, A Rob 2 years ago. You can achieve fantasy superstardom with a horrible QB