Rushing for well over 1,500 yards and averaging over a TD per game is a must if Henry is going to have a shot at RB1 (and even then, he’d need help). Neither of which have ever happened following a 2,000 yard season - never even close.
Aside from that, as I’ve mentioned in a previous post, guys who don’t catch the ball don’t end up as #1 overall RB (hasn’t happened for a player with less than 20 catches in PPR formats since Shaun Alexander in 2005).
I’m not betting against Henry being a top-5 guy and I certainly trust him to not pull an Alexander or Larry Johnson and become a large workload casualty. He’s just not the most likely to finish as RB1.
If we’re going on actual probabilities, it’s ambitious to expect 85% of what he did last year and silly to expect 100% of it…and even then, he still wasn’t RB1 in PPR last year in a year without CMC.
It would take a year that has never happened before and - especially if we’re talking about 20-25 touchdowns in the range of outcomes - then we’re not really talking probabilities anymore. We’re going off your gut. Which is completely fine - just not an absolute.
He might be most likely for top-5 or most likely to contribute during playoff rounds, but not for #1 overall.