Derrick Henry or Ezekiel Elliot

I am drafting on Sunday and I have run into a pretty big conundrum…King Henry or Zeke.

My heart says Derrick Henry - he’s consistent, he gets all the work, and he scores a lot of TD’s. My head, however, screams Zeke - he catches the ball, he scores, he’s on a good offense.

PLEASE HELP!

Are you at a pick position you’ll definitely need to chose? I prefer Zeke personally but I’d be really happy with both.

I think Henry will be a little less effective this year and zeke assuming he isn’t on a terminal decline will return to previous levels of fantasy success. But I won’t cry at getting either.

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Thanks!

Sorry, didn’t realize that provided no information haha.

I pick at 4 and it’s a PPR league. I’m assuming that CMC, Dalvin Cook, and Kamara will go 1, 2, 3.

I like zeke

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I was at 3 spot and I wanted Kamara but 2nd pick got him so I passed on cook and took zeke. So obviously I’m high on him think he has a big year

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Derrick Henry has the best chance of being the #1 overall RB at the end of the season.

Ezekiel Elliott has the second-best chance.

Draft accordingly.

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Gimme Zeke all day in a PPR or 1/2-point.

Love Henry, but it would take him doing something that has literally never happened in the history of the NFL following a 2,000-yard season in order to return #1 overall value.

I’d take the receptions and bet on the bounce back of Zeke with a healthy-ish Dak.

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I think he will too, but his fumbles last year really have me tilted. Hopefully Kamara falls to me, but if not, I think Zeke will end up being the pick

Appreciate the input. Ideally Kamara falls to me and I won’t have to worry about this, but I think Zeke will end up being the pick

And what is that?

Because being the undisputed goalline back on a playoff team that sports AJ Brown and Julio Jones at WR could mean that Henry scores 20-25 TDs this season. I don’t know if that has ever been done following a 2000 yard season or not, but if it hasn’t, there’s a good chance this will be the first time.

Rushing for well over 1,500 yards and averaging over a TD per game is a must if Henry is going to have a shot at RB1 (and even then, he’d need help). Neither of which have ever happened following a 2,000 yard season - never even close.

Aside from that, as I’ve mentioned in a previous post, guys who don’t catch the ball don’t end up as #1 overall RB (hasn’t happened for a player with less than 20 catches in PPR formats since Shaun Alexander in 2005).

I’m not betting against Henry being a top-5 guy and I certainly trust him to not pull an Alexander or Larry Johnson and become a large workload casualty. He’s just not the most likely to finish as RB1.

If we’re going on actual probabilities, it’s ambitious to expect 85% of what he did last year and silly to expect 100% of it…and even then, he still wasn’t RB1 in PPR last year in a year without CMC.

It would take a year that has never happened before and - especially if we’re talking about 20-25 touchdowns in the range of outcomes - then we’re not really talking probabilities anymore. We’re going off your gut. Which is completely fine - just not an absolute.

He might be most likely for top-5 or most likely to contribute during playoff rounds, but not for #1 overall.

That’s one of the exciting things about sports–the neverending “firsts.”

So it DOES happen, it just hasn’t happened in a while. So no “first” there. Bummer.

Well, no one else has a BETTER chance, so I call Henry’s the BEST chance.

4 guys have a better chance at RB1 - including Zeke.

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How would you rank your top 5 RB’s then?

  1. CMC
  2. Kamara
  3. Dalvin Cook
  4. Zeke
  5. Henry

Henry
Zeke
CMC
Cook
Jones

I respectfully disagree for fantasy purposes. The chances he has no regression from last year is small and he’s not much of a receiving back. For PPR format zeke is tge better choice IMHO

You don’t understand. Derrick Henry is not human. Regression does not apply to him. He has INCREASED his carries, his rushing yards, his rushing TDs, his receptions and his fantasy points EACH AND EVERY YEAR he has been in the league (five and counting)!

And they just added Julio to further loosen defenses, and hopefully put them in position to score even more frequently. Henry should have over 20 TDs in this offense, even if he might surrender a couple hundred yards.

But yeah, Zeke has the 2nd-best chance of being the overall #1 RB when the dust settles, so if you prefer him, I wouldn’t be too mad.

Like I said earlier we’ll just have to agree to disagree I’m personally projecting CMC to have the highest PPR ceiling this year I guess only time will tell

I ended up taking Zeke @AxeElf @Sppresto @eduardo8448 @Fryegbfan66 @Mr_Wind-up_Bird