I had Devontae Freeman, Leonard Fournette, and Kenyan Drake as my top three RB’s last season, but I ultimately got burned by those three. However, after free agency, all three guys have now gain significant upside. The question is do I trust them or move on to other safer options?
Trusting those specific players - yes and no.
Feelings for guys like Devonta Freeman who were injured early and burned you due to absence can be reconciled. He still has opportunity. Potentially great opportunity. He was an objectively talented player. There is a good chance, in my opinion, that Freeman has a productive 2019. Assuming health.
Fournette is a different case. No question a talented player when at his best. However his opportunity is a little less structured with the friction between management and his ongoing injuries. That said, his draft cost or trade value has decreased and therefore the risk in acquisition is also less.
Finally Drake is likely the hardest player to trust in my opinion. Too many questions about whether or not his previous production/opportunity was dictated by the players talent or by coaching decisions. Further the 2019 Dolphins are not expected to be a ‘high powered’ offense. Just the opposite; a potential organic tank. I believe that his draft cost/trade value will be higher than my comfort level. There is upside but great risk.
Remember to stay water. Player do bounce back. I constantly evaluate based on new information.
Thank you fun4willis for your honest feedback about those three specific players. Just as you stated in the exact order is how I exactly feel for which players have the most risk. The first two are clear-cut starters without really anyone there to compete with, but I am still concern by the possibilities of both having the higher chances of getting hurt again during the season. Drake definitely has the biggest risk, because new coach ideals that nobody truly knows his RB style and possibly could be competition for a starting role.
Would you say Tarik Cohen from the Bears or Jordan Howard (literally now Eagles) would be better starters compared to Drake and Fournette?
Absolutely right about Freeman.
Fournette needs to lose 15 lbs and get back to his uber productive weight. Until he does that, he doesn’t show enough discipline to be successful in the NFL in my opinion. It’s not hard to get a personal trainer or nutritionist with his money.
The Amish Cannon rarely checks down, a big reason TB RB’s were dumpster fires. He doesn’t seem to be able to throw under 30 yard passes. Drake has low RB2 in talent, but without opportunity, he’s bleh. Try to package him.
Howard might be a great option, but he still can’t catch and he’s in time-share city.
Cohen is gonna be very productive.
Great question and can so often be the decision that wins or loses you a title. @fun4willis has hit the nail on the head and i fully agree with his points on Freeman, Fournette and Drake so wont overlap here.
As for your Cohen and Howard question - Cohen over Drake and in half or full PPR with Howard now gone the case for Cohen over Fournette could be made. Cohen was already a weekly flex play with serious upside and now i think in a full PPR i would be conformable with him as an RB2 if have a strong WR core to carry the load. As @dgallagher8611 says he will be very productive, more so than last year possibly. Assuming the Bears don’t add anyone else of note / no one in preseason steps into a larger role.
Howard on the other hand… it’s tough as he isn’t the worst runner by any stretch but he’s in a crowded timeshare and as a non receiver he’ll be a role player for sure, and should be the goaline man but i suspect he could end up being TD or bust more weeks than you would like.
Ranking wise i’d go - 1. Freeman (cant ignore his talent and opportunity plus team investment. I’ve seen him slip to late 4th and 5th round in mocks and that’s too good to pass) 2. Cohen and Fournette - more of a 2a and 2b, Fournette needs to drop out of the first 3 rounds for me to fell happy with him if not i prefer waiting for Cohen a couple of rounds later. 3. Howard, role player and matchup flex play with RB2 upside in a given week but not a weekly play. 4. Drake - unless we see him get the lead role or lead in the timeshare he may be on my do not draft list or last three round lottery pick list at best.
"Howard might be a great option, but he still can’t catch and he’s in time-share city.
Cohen is gonna be very productive."
This didnt age well at least the Cohen portion