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Doug Balwin Heat Check


#1

Whats the current community temperature on our boy Douggie?

The news blurb yesterday about him expecting to manage his knee condition all season has me a little worried buts its also affecting his ADP. I’ve been snatching him up anywhere in the 3rd but I saw him in the 4rth last night. There is risk that he disappoints, but the SeaChickens desparately need him to be the target vaccuum we all know and love.

Are the ballers considering him a value still or are we looking elsewhere?


#2

They have him ranked as the number 10 reciever! 4 spots ahead of diggs!


#3

I took him in the 5th round in my main redraft league, standard scoring. I feel pretty good about it! Yes the knee news wasn’t great to here but there is still nothing out there other than soreness that i can see, he’s a guy that doesn’t miss time so that tells me he can manage injuries, probably has done before maybe even this knee issue in the past so i’m not that worried given the draft price reflecting the risk, 3rd round i’ll pass but after that you have to take the shot unless we here 100% he’s missing actual game time or having any type of ‘procedure’ performed.

As you say they badly need him and the sheer volume and TD upside will be there, even banged up he will get so much work and worst comes to worst some weeks maybe the yards aren’t there but throws in the redzone and endzone you know Russ is looking at DB first. Just have to keep an eye on the reports but taking him as potentially best case your WR2, with a solid guy or TE and 3 RBs before him - sign me up


#4

I think he is going to be on a lot of championship teams. You are getting a stud WR1 for dirt cheap which is crazy. He is pretty much locked in at 1000 and 7-8 with a world of him going for 1200 and 12-14 which I don’t think is completely crazy for him. I fully expect him to hit 10 tds this year and will be a huge target for me.


#5

Wow the 5th (assuming 12 team) feels like a downright crime but props to you sir! But it speaks to how much the greater community has cooled on him.

I’m very much on the same page with you here. I’m still picking him over Hilton, Hill, Cooper, etc. I struggle with Diggs and Thielen though. I expect him to be more consistent than those 2 (higher floor than Thielen but probably lower ceiling than Diggs).


#6

Yeah I felt like i’d cheated but the classic run on RB depth and the first wave of the QB panic carried him to me, couldn’t believe it.

Agree with that, i’m cooling on Hilton that Colts line is going to kill Luck and Hilton wont have time to get deep so he’s going to have to take the quicker passes which he can do but he’s better blazing people over the top. I’d for sure take Baldwin over those guys, Thielen is tough as he’s dropped a bit too but i actually would take Baldwin over them both. Reasoning being, that Vikings D isn’t giving up a lot of points, so the offense wont need to, they wont need to pass as much either as a result when running the clock down. The Seahawks D is very depleted now and Thomas could sit out actual games to get his trade so they are going to have to throw a ton - enter Baldwin! Double digit TDs is a very real possibility.

Also Diggs does have an inury history and does miss time vs Baldwin who does not, and he has a higher ceiling and floor than Thielen


#7

I’m so hot and cold with all this stuff pertaining to Baldwins knees. I literally got him for 26 bucks in a 12 team .5 point league with an auction budget of 210 (3 IDPs) to be my WR2 behind Diggs. kind of a 1a and 1b situation i guess. thats an absolute steal for a guy like Baldwin especially with the situation hes in with so many targets opened up and td upside. i need to stop overthinking and reading every article or post in relation to him. he should be fine. the guy should absolutely kill it this year. and for the price i got him, even if hes at his usual floor or even under that i will be happy. i have hogan and marquis goodwin waiting in the wings with dj moore and mike williams hoping to break out.

sometimes we just need to take a step back and rely on what we did in our drafts in preparation for situations like this.


#8

If he’s there in the 4th, you take him. I’m avoiding him in the 3rd cause there are other guys there I would prefer. But in the 4th, the risk is built in and you have to take that value for someone who can finish top 8 at the position.