Draft Rating - Am I Screwed at WR?

General Fantasy Football Talk
#21

Hence the edit to WR1 not just any old WR as I mistyped in my post… The reference point was from my half PPR trade offer as an idea of values with some PPR scoring element as that was my experience, obviously you would bite someone’s hand off for that if it came in in full PPR, plus I love Duke in full PPR format but surely targets and receptions will come down and with the rushing 100% coming down with Chubb and Hyde there he is surely lower this year and without RB1 upside?

You have no concerns about Dallas O-line losing it’s C two weeks out for an unknown amount of time and general lack of options outside of Zeke?

#22

The roster has plenty of stability, and a very high weekly floor based on the RB group, so I’m not at all concerned about the WRs being inconsistent. Of course it would nice to upgrade you’re WRs, but he’s more than fine with what he has considering very few WRs actually are consistent (Hill and Tate were 9th and 19th in terms of consistency at the position last year), and I wouldn’t recommend sacrificing depth for a couple more games of WR production, which is effectively what you’d be doing with almost anyone you’d be upgrading too.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/uk.sports.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/fantasy-football-consistency-rankings-wide-154458355.html

#23

I do think it helps that it is a PPR, not a standard. But, yes this was my concern.

#24

Well, I feel much better now. That is some good consistency.

#25

Okay but you said RB2. For example, I would still not give up Zeke for MT + Duke Johnson. CMAC is not an RB2. he is far from it. He is an RB1 with a top 10 floor and top 5-6 upside in full PPR format. So two completely different trades you outlined. One is an incredibly lobsided trade in your favor, the other is not even a trade I would consider.

Chubb and Hyde doesn’t concern me. Duke was never going to be a guy to carry the ball 10-15+ times anyways. Duke’s role was and always will be the 3rd down pass catching back. In fact, they will likely move him into the slot this year as well. Does he repeat RB1? Probably not. But is that upside there? definitely. But I would trade Zeke for MT/CMAC alone in a full PPR so Duke is just the sweetener.

No, not worried. Zeke is a once in a generation talent at RB. Anyone who watches football would know it. Do I love the martin injury? no. But it’s not a season ending one and it’s not like the rest of their Oline are now a bunch of bums without him. I think that the center is definitely one of the most important ones, but that line is plenty talented and Zeke will have plenty of holes to choose to run from still.

Also, I don’t get this whole narrative of dallas having no options. I think they are a better team now than with dez. Dez has not been a great fit for dallas since the romo prime days. Dak’s style is not throwing toss ups into tight coverage. he is not the guy who will throw you open. Dez needs a stafford/rodgers/brady who can fit it into a tight window or is at least willing to throw it up for him to make a play. Does Dallas currently have a more talented receiver than Dez? No. But they have more average to good players spread throughout the roster for Dak to throw to. I think overall, the team is better than it was last year, and defense is definitely improved as well.

Also, the fact that there is no longer a WR1 prototype demanding targets means ball will be spread out more. I think that bodes well for Zeke. He already ran a lot more routes last year, saw an uptick in targets, and I think he will be more involved in the passing game this year as well as the ball gets spread around more.

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#26

Don’t get me wrong. They’re inconsistent, the point is that basically everyone at the position is too. Brown is about the only one who’s a true paradigm of consistency.

A slight ‘upgrade’ at WR might get you anothrr game or two of better production, but it might not, and I’d rather have the depth which I know I’ll need.

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#27

MT and Hopkins are actually more consistent than AB. AB has more boom in him though than MT or Hopkins.

But agree with the point. WRs are inherently inconsistent. But having the 3 top 8 RBs solves that problem.

#28

AB is the most consistent, in terms of top 12 and top 24 finishes, and if memory serves it’s not that close. He’s actually more consistent than all but the top RBs.

#29

Not sure if you’re referring to career but I was talking about 2017 for which that statement is false. Here’s the stats for WR1/WR2/WR3 finishes in PPR scoring:

AB: 57.1%/64.3%/78.6% --> 21.4% bust
Nuk: 46.7%/93.3%/93.3% --> 0% bust
MT: 31.3%/75%/81.3% --> 6.3% bust

Bust < 7.9 points

Which is why I said, MT/Nuk are actually more consistent than AB. Whether you define that by WR2 or WR3, but AB has bigger Boom than them.

#30

I do think the stat was over multiple years

#31

Why duke in the slot with Landry there? Gordon and Callaway on the outside not sure I agree there.

Of course Zeke is a elite runner I don’t dispute that but everyone has a price that’s mearly my view. The line bothers me a little if Martin and Frederick miss time together, and my comment on lack of options was more of what I’ve seen from Dak with his line intact not doing a huge amount but granted without Zeke but just a concern.
Anyway no right or wrong views or opinions here they are just that after all

#32

I believe that’s part of the reason why they traded away coleman. They wanted to give duke more receiving work out of the slot. To be clear, I am not saying that he will repeat the performance last year, in fact I think it is unlikely with Landry there so sorry on the confusion there. I just meant that his upside, is still very bottom/low end RB1, he’s shown how efficient he is as a receiver. I don’t think Gordon/Callaway impacts him that much. Gordon/Callaway are fighting for similar targets. Also, Haley going to Cleveland, I think they will be a very past first / pass happy team so there should be more targets, and definitely, higher quality targets to go around compared to the combo of Kizer/Hogan last year.

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#33

What @MikeMeUpp said.

Agreed about Tate. If you look at Tate’s numbers, he is very consistent year to year, but not week by week. But like is mentioned, it shouldn’t matter. Great team! You’ll go far pilgrim.

#34

Who knew my panicked post draft come down would spark such an interesting conversation. I feel somehow relieved and also very nervous. Haha!

3 Likes
#35

Smells like fantasy football.

2 Likes
#36

It just doesn’t make sense to argue against trying to parlay that RB wealth into a wr upgrade.

Even with that awesome RB stable, weeks when Hill and Tate bust at the same time can cause losses.

You at least owe it to yourself to entertain offers. If you don’t get anything attractive, you can always stand pat.

1 Like
#37

I’d never suggest anyone not listen to offers for anyone. Every player has a price. However, it sounded like you were suggesting that it was urgent/vital that upgrade WR, and that simply is not true at all.

As I’ve already established, they’re not actually significantly more inconsistent than most other WRs (9th and 19th in Yahoo consistency rankings last year, if memory serves). Considering the extremely high floors of the 3 RB1s, and Stafford, and the roster already has a ton of week to week stability built in.

Now if you can package Tate and Burkhead for MT/Keenan Allen, of course you do that. Likewise, if you get a godfather offer for one of the RBs, you do it. Otherwise, 3 RB1s should still be a decisive advantage on a week to week basis.

I should note that all of this is somewhat dependent on the assumption that this is a fairly typical league with 2 starting RBs and a flex (basically that you can start all 3 RBs).

#38

Yes, standard (2RB, 2WR, 1Flex) PPR league.

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#39

I took the massive bye week hit last year and damn near won that game with 5 starters out. What it forced me to do was work the waiver wire early and prepare for the Hurricane.

After the storm passed, nobody could keep up. I was winning games by 30 pts or more. It’s a good strategy if that’s how things line up but I would not build my team with it as a goal.

#40

While I don’t think it’s an urgent situation, I do think the suggestion that this team is “more than fine” at receiver is a bit misguided.

I think Andy, Jason, and Mike actually stated in one of their recent shows exactly what I did: you do NOT want to go forth with Ty Hill as your number one guy. I agree with them.

And rather than looking at prepackaged consistency rankings, just look at their game logs:

F-points for Hill:

week 1: 19
week 2: 4
week 3: 14
week 4: 3
week 5: 6
week 6: 3
week 7: 18
week 8: 2
week 9: 12
week 11: 7
week 12: 5
week 13: 30
week 14: 7
week 15: 14
week 16: 10
week 17: starters sat

Tate:

week 1: 10
week 2: 2
week 3: 11
week 4: 2
week 5: 4
week 6: 15
week 8: 6
week 9: 11
week 10: 15
week 11: 3
week 12: 1
week 13: 6
week 14: 14
week 15: 3
week 16: 1
week 17: 18

They don’t look very consistent when you lay it out like that.

Let’s just say he went to war with these guys as his number 1 and 2 wideouts last year.

There are some BOOM weeks in there, for sure. But there are only three weeks where they combined for 25 points or more, which means that only three times, they averaged 12.5 points each. You want more from your number 1 wideout, at least.

And there are some really scary weeks in there, too. There would have been six weeks when those guys combined for point totals of 11 or lower. Not good.

The point totals in the other 7 weeks average out to about 17 points per week, which means that they’re averaging 8.5 points individually.

If it’s ppr, that changes things, but not by much: Hill had 9 weeks with 5 receptions or less and three others with only 6. Tate, the PPR monster, had 7 weeks with 6 receptions or less.

A starting one two punch at receiver has to do better than that to win a championship.

Yes, the floor is high with these RB’s, but why gamble on these WRs when you have Burkhead on the bench, and you can package one of your guys for a WR upgrade without losing much, if any, of that firepower?

That’s basically my point.

Full disclosure: last year, I drafted Jordy and AJ, and then Tyreek fell to me in the mid-rounds. Then Sammy fell to me a round later. My starting RBs were Dalvin, Crow, my QB was Russell Wilson, and my TE was Eifert. Everybody in the league thought I would dominate. Well…Jordy and AJ weren’t much help as it turned out, and you know the story with Dalvin and Crow. I managed to stay competitive with waiver wire pickups, and Wilson was a godsend. But I really needed Tyreek; and just look at that game log. More often than not, he was nowhere near adequate as a number 1. Had I dealt one of those WRs for RB depth at the beginning of the year, with everyone in the league thinking I had cornered the receiver market, I probably would have been much better off.

So to me, the lesson is: DIVERSIFY. Don’t put all your eggs in one position.

I’ve really enjoyed this exchange DFWB! You make great points, and although I have taken the other side in this discussion with you, I think we actually don’t see it all that differently. When I said, there’s nothing wrong with standing pat, I was basically acknowledging your point of view, and when you said there are trade scenarios you’d entertain, you basically acknowledged mine. Thanks for the excellent fantasy discussion. You’re keepin’ me sharp, and bringin’ the knowledge, man!