Duke for MVS trade?

.5 pt ppr

Trying to acquire MVS, should Duke be enough? Long story short, I need WR help, they need RB help… If Duke isn’t enough my other options would be Kerryon or Dion Lewis…

Thoughts on the worth of MVS?

Thanks

I’d try to give them Dion before Duke. If Duke’s usage from Sunday continues, you’ll want to keep him.

True, but Lewis has had increased usage too and Henry is fading…? I’m thinking Duke and Dion might be similar moving forward so I don’t really mind trading either one too much. Dion has had his bye, that’s why I lean towards keeping him… I’ll have a little chat w/ the MVS owner, see what they’re thinking…

I’d rather have Duke than Lewis probably. Duke is their second best receiver and the OC that took over was the RB coach so he probably favors his guys in Chubb/Duke. Given the pressure, Baker should be relying on Duke early and often ROS. Also as bad as browns are, they aren’t as bad as titans imo.

If you want, you can try Kerryon if they guy is still high on him. Kerryon wont be getting much PPR with RIddick back in the picture.

good point @MikeMeUpp about Duke being the 2nd best WR on the browns… forgot how thin they are at WR

Also, @BLumsden09: I was thinking the same about Kerryon… lol

It’s about as clear as mud then? haha

Lewis was so good the last 2 games… titans have to keep feeding him right? he’s their best weapon, no?

Corey Davis is their best weapon. Lewis is probably #2. But they seem intent on using the trash henry on goal line so he is pretty capped. Also, that entire offense is capped by how bad mariota is. Don’t let the one game fool you. Mariota had a career game and took a Dak INT to do so. I’ve seen enough of mariota so far for me to fade that offense.

Picking Duke over Lewis has everything to do with me choosing baker over mariota.

1 Like

you’re right. lol mariotta is bad

so I’m thinking offer lewis first… if that doesn’t work… Duke? then Kerryon? Or offer Kerryon before Duke?

Now i’m not disagreeing with you that Mariota and the titans in general are Terri-bad, but you being our resident fact-spitter, i’m suprised at how much your undervaluing Dion Lewis, so much as to put him behind the second RB on the browns.

using pro-football-reference.com, you can see Dion Lewis had an offensive snap count of 84.3% this past monday @ Dallas

Derrick Henry on the other hand has been dwindling down week after week, this week only mustering 20% of offensive snaps.

Now this part i’m a little too lazy to look up, but on the ESPN fantasy app, when talking about Dion Lewis; Michael Barry and the crew talked about how every week they ask every NFL team’s media coverage some questions related to players, and for the Titans it was “How much more involved is Dion Lewis going to be going forward” (something along those lines) and the media replied that the team is actively trying to feature him post-bye, as it is clear that he is one of , if not their top weapon.

All this is why i firmly believe, that moving forward, Dion Lewis is going to be the top 15-20 back that we envisioned him to be going into this year.

The titans, as bad as they are, are still in the running to be able to compete with Houston for the AFC south, they are only 2 games back, so if they turn on the jets for this second half the season, they could fight for a wildcard spot.

1 Like

Offer: Kerryon, Lewis, Duke in that order.

1 Like

I’m also 4-5 in that league, 8th place, top 6 get in playoffs so while I get that Duke has a lot of potential ROS value… he also has a bye week 11 and I’m kind of thinking I need RBs I can start… Kerryon isn’t the most appealing starter right now, but at least he’ll be playing every week (barring injury) ROS.

Should I disregard Duke’s upcoming bye week and (try) to hang on to him anyways…

Numbers are definitely important and as you know, I like to focus on them. But they have be taken with context and you need to dig a level deeper beyond the raw snap % to see why I value DJ more but before I even do that, let me provide some qualitative context for why I prefer DJ:

  1. DJ is not a RB, he is a receiver who you can play out of the RB position. He is game script proof and on a team where Baker has no reliable WRs, he is going to rely on DJ heavily, as we’ve seen over the past couple of weeks.

  2. The new OC was the former RB coach. He knows the skill set that DJ has and he also knows the Oline pass pro has been atrocious. he is going to design plays with short time fuses where Baker can get the ball out of his hands quickly. And that is where DJ excels, in the catch and run. And in the first week post jackson/haley, he put him to use. DJ had a 20%+ market share of the targets. Honestly, at this point, i wouldn’t even argue if someone were to tell me DJ is the teams best receiver, ahead of Landry. And I get that Titans want to use Lewis more, but he is capped on the goal line just like DJ is by Chubb except lewis doesn’t get nearly the same work on the receiving side. And a target is worth ~2.5x what a carry is worth from a fantasy perspective.

  3. Also, this dallas game was more of an outlier for the titans. I don’t expect them to be scoring 28 points a game. It was a career game for Mariota and his best performance ever on the road. Up until this point, he has been atrocious and their schedule really doesn’t get any better at all. There are going to be game scripts where Lewis doesn’t see nearly enough touches to be reliable on a week to week basis, especially with Henry getting goal line work. In fact, this game would have been that if Dak wasn’t so awful. Should’ve been 14-0 in the first quarter and Dall D would’ve taken over from there. Got lucky on that pick.

  4. You mentioned that Dion lewis played 84.3% of the snaps. Would it shock you to know that DJ also played 84% of the snaps? The reason why he can do that is cause he lines up in the slot and wide out often even with Chubb on the field. TItans rarely do that with henry/Lewis.This definitely has to do with game script but browns are going to be behind early and often and DJ is the more gamescript proof RB and as bad as the browns are as an offense, they are still much better than that titans, primarily because baker is superior to mariota. And i think this trend is a sign of things to come. Expecting another great game from DJ against the leagues worst defense at defending pass catchers from out of the backfield.

Now let’s dig into those snaps a little further by analyzing this past week. It doesn’t make as much sense to look behind that given the changes in both offenses more specifically the browns change in coaching. FYI, everything I say below is based on numbers I get from PFF Elite package. If you can afford it, i recommend it. Not a plug, i don’t get paid for you signing up but I just think its a cool resource everyone should use. Here are comparisons for Lewis and DJ:

Of the 59 plays that lewis had, 58 were in the backfield with 1 as a WR. What this means is most of his targets are in the backfield. Of the 35 plays that DJ had, around 17% of them he took out wide or from the slot which translates into better fantasy production. This is reflected in their respective ADoT. 3.3 for DJ and -1.1 for Lewis. Air yards is a great metric to look at which has high correlation with receiving fantasy production. Lewis has -40 air yards, DJ has 119 and both are great after the catch with DJ at 215 and lewis at 300 respectively.

And even though Lewis may play more snaps, a bigger portion of his snaps do not translate into production as he is asked to both pass pro and block. Of the 59 snaps he played, 25% of the time, he is doing one or the other compared to DJ who was asked to do that <15% of the time. In another words, each snap DJ gets is actually more valuable than each snap lewis gets because he is getting the ball more often than not, specifically in the form of targets.

In addition, Mariota has thrown for more than 30 times twice this season. And that was in the OT game to Philly. And he has thrown for < 20 times 3 times this season. Now contrast that with Baker who has thrown for 35 times in every single game he has started this season. And thrown for more than 40 times in 4/6 weeks as a starter. And DJ is getting 20% of that.

So at the end of the day, it’s a matter of opinion here but to me, DJ’s snaps are just more valuable cause they result in touches and more importantly, targets in a team that is going to be throwing, a lot.

EDIT: One other thing I’ll add, Titans are on pace to run the lowest number of offensive plays since like 1970. That’s not a stat I want to hear for a offensive player in fantasy.

2 Likes

hey you guys all are so awesome for helping me with this!

Great points all around… thanks so much for taking the time to provide all that info I’m a huge fan of looking at the numbers and breaking them down, digging deeper, it’s just fun. Thanks @MikeMeUpp for doing all that! you rock!

We’ll see what happens!