Dynasty 1st over pick!

As the title reads I was picked 1st overall in my dynasty startup.
I on the fence of who to draft first…
Im a Zeke and saquon believer but I just dont know.
full PPR.
Any advise would help me out tons.
Thanks.

For me it’s OBJ or Hopkins.

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I prefer CMC, Zeke, or Hopkins. Don’t think you can go wrong with any of these guys. I love saquon, but the offense is just too bad and will be for too long for me to take him 1st ovr. OBJ COULD end up being the best dynasty player, but there’s too many unknown for me to take him 1st ovr

im leaning more Zeke…
his utilization in the passing game is increasing and plus im a cowboys fan

I can see your outlook.
A WR longevity is gonna work out for you.
ive thought of hopkins plenty as well.

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Hopkins or OBJ imo, but if you want Rb go zeke

I think there is a pretty clear top tier of picks consisting of (in no particular order): Barkley, Zeke, Beckham and Hopkins. I don’t think you can really go wrong with any of them; it all depends on your draft philosophy and how you want to build your team.

I should say that in my opinion, Barkley should be drafted ahead of Zeke. Barkley is a better talent than Zeke, and is younger to boot. In dynasty, you should be drafting talent over opportunity, because opportunity changes but talent doesn’t. That said, the difference in value between Zeke and Barkley isn’t that much, to the extent that if you’re a cowboys fan and you want to take Zeke, giddy up.

As for the receivers, I prefer Beckham to Hopkins, but you will find opinions on both sides of that debate. Both are young and uber-talented wideouts that almost certainly have long and productive careers ahead of them.

It should be noted that the conventional wisdom is to prefer wrs over rbs at the top of dynasty drafts. The reason for this is simple: rbs tend to have shorter careers, and the list of top performing rbs tends to be fairly volatile compared to wrs, whereas elite receivers tend to remain elite for far longer. Rb prospects are also far easier to assess coming out of the draft while wr prospects generally take a couple of years to truly get a handle on. That said, I think Barkley and Zeke are the exception to this rule, as both are imo young, can’t miss prospects that, barring career altering injuries will be among the top rbs for years to come, with careers in the vein of Adrian Peterson.

So there you have it. You have 4 great choices to decide from. If you have a clear favourite, take it. If not, you could consider talking to the owners of the 1.03 and 1.04 and see about trading down, still getting a top tier prospect while improving your draft capital.

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You’ve crushed me not having Davante Adams in you’re top tier. Why would you say he’s not there for you?

I take it this isn’t a SF league, right? If not, Saquon would be a great pick for sure

Adams is a young wr in a great situation and in redraft probably will be a top tier wr. What separates Adams from Beckham and Hopkins in dynasty is that Adams is a pretty clear step down in terms of talent, and as I said, talent is king in dynasty.

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I don’t have evidence to backup this statement. But anecdotally, elite WRs seem to hold greater value over longer periods than elite RB. This is not the same as a WR having a longer career thatn an RB. Jordy Nelson and Larry Fitzgerald played well into their 30’s but their respective dynasty value is almost nothing today.

OBJ and Hopkins have been early first round picks in dynasty startups for a few years. Despite injuries, in most cases their value has been consistent and it would take elite players or several rookie picks to acquire those players in trade.

Whereas running back values seems to be more fragile. There have been times within the last three years where Zeke, Gurley and Bell’s value seems to have fluctuated heavily. At least what you would have to give up in trade to acquire those players.

Looking at players like stocks. WR are like Amazon, pretty solid - constantly raising. RBs are like Bitcoin, huge upside - expect volatility.

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I do believe that WR are safer in dynasty and last longer. They also put up about the same amount of fantasy points at the end of the year

7 wide receivers got over 300 fantasy points in 2018 and juju and Mike Evans were really close. so almost 9

only 5 RB’s did and one of those 5 is not doing it again this year. (TG)

My thought here is that getting one of those RB’s on your team is more valuable to me. There is always the chance that if you do start rb one of those top 9 “could” be close to coming back to you with pick 2. The RB’s for sure won’t