Dynasty Him or Him

Hey Footclan, I’m wondering of these players (full point PPR Dynasty) who would you rather have? This isn’t for trades or anything, just debates my league mates and I have had during the offseason. If you’d like to add one you think is tough, go for it!

Tyreek Hill or AJ Green
Tyreek Hill or Devante Adams
Kamara or Bell
David Johnon or Bell
Bell or Zeke
Landry or ____ (I couldn’t think of a good comp; let me know if you can think of one)

Youth is important in a dynasty, so keep that in mind for my answers.

Hill over green
Hill over Adam’s
Kamara over bell
Bell over DJ
Zeke over bell

Kamara over bell is the only one I feel weird about because that’s expecting kamara to perform like he did last year every year. And that’s asking a lot in my mind, but I would take the risk. Otherwise these are pretty standard (at least in my opinion) pick to make. Dynasty you choose better teams, and youth.

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Here’s my answers

Green over Hill: not an easy pick but Green’s proven track record and the recent Watkins signing make mean lean Green even with the age gap

Adams over Hill: reason stated above about Watkins, only a year gap, better QB play, more targets = more opportunities

Bell over Kamara: proven elite option, Ingram still in NO and an expected decrease in efficiency. Though I think it’s very close

Bell over DJ… kinda self explainitory. Better team. Better QB, etc.

Zeke over Bell: youth and not much of a talent gap

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Thanks! If either of you have any other “close calls” let me know; my league and I like discussing them, its fun.

We’ve more so had debates about certain players values than a one vs the other. General conversations have been about Kamara, Watson, KC receivers, Derrick Henry, Mahomes, McKinnon, ARob, Edelman, Landry

WRs: Adams, Hill, Green
RBs: DJ, DJ, DJ, Zeke, Kamara, Bell

My problem with this stuff though is that it’s team dependent. Is my team in position for a championship? If yes then trading for Bell or Green but if I’m in a rebuild, I’d trade Bell for Kamara or Green for Hill.

I think I might rather have Hill in redraft this year than Green tbh. I want no part of what’s going on in Cincy, and Green didn’t look quite as dominant in his own right this past last year as years past.

I also don’t think there’s a situation in which I’d rather have any of the RBs named over DJ. He’s as good a runner, much better reciever and not appreciably older than Zeke, I think he’s just better than Kamara, and I think he’s at least close to as good as Bell, but is actually less of an injury risk due to the workload Bell has shouldered for the last several years.

I dont want any shares of DJ. redraft or anything. His price is too high for what’s around him. A little injury prone, and his offense is very much in transition. All the other ones you can easily say either or. I just go for better teams and youth. Which actually makes Adam’s vs hill the toughest. Hill is younger and on a better team (my opinion on that) but hill does have more to contend with.

How quickly we forget how ridiculously good DJ is. When it comes to a player with that type of talent and workshare (especially considering how good and involved he is in the passing game - remember OP stated this league is full PPR), the team situation just doesn’t bother me that much. He’s already produced, at about as high a level as is possible, on a bad team. McCoy has done the same for years, and DJ is every bit that good from a talent stand point.

Seriously, look at what he did on a sub .500 team 2 years ago: 1239 rushing yards on 293 attempts, 80 receptions for 879 yards, and 20 total TDs. If you’re counting, that’s 411 points in PPR, which would have been 1st overall in PPR this year by nearly 30 points. Take away, say, 20% of the yards and receptions and 50% of the TDs (because 20 is obviously difficult to replicate), and he’s still at 335ish PPR points, which would have been good for 3rd at the position this year.

But to be honest with you, I think the receiving numbers are going to go up. He may well be the best receiver on the roster this season. Throw in the workload he’s going to get rushing, even if it’s relatively hard sledding, and you have about as safe a floor and as high a ceiling as any RB around.

As for ‘injury prone’, every RB not named Frank Gore is injury prone, and DJ no more so than most, including Bell. A hand injury doesn’t concern me for an RB at all.

Forgot to mention this: in looking up the numbers used above, I noticed he’s a bit older than I realized (I guess he was older than the norm coming out), so that makes some of these choices closer than I initially thought, but he also has a comparatively low career touch count, which indicates to me that he should have plenty of tread left on his tires.

i think more importantly, people forget its a what have you done for me lately kind of choice too. david johnson has had 1 good year. one and a half really. and with a LOT of turmoil around him, there is no reason to pick him high when there are plenty of other guys you know what they will produce around him. you could argue with bradofrd there he should get a large passing role. or you could argue that with bradfords injury concerns, you will have no idea who is DJs QB. you could also argue that a worse team means less TDs, because lets face it worse teams score less. so we are talking about a 26 year old RB who has had 2 injuries in his short career already (granted the MCL wasnt a tear but thats still wear and tear on the body) and the other is a hand, who we dont know how involved he will be in this new offense with this new HC and QB, we dont know what his work load will be, we dont even know if he wont just do a time share. cardinals could easily draft an RB because they know how bad their team gets with DJ out. so older, has had a few injuries lately, new HC and QB, unknown share of touches… yeah DJ is an extreme talent but that doesnt make him infallible. i think at BEST his receiving numbers stay the same, but every other number goes down. if he hits 10 total TDs i wouldnt be surprised at all. but he isnt getting close to 20 again. i see him getting 300 points in PPR at his best. so at best the number 4 RB from last year. dont get me wrong thats nothing to sneeze at, but there are so many other people i would rather have long term. like in this particular case, bell over DJ. bell has not only shown you more than DJ, its so damn good that most are willing to ignore everything that happens off the field. but really at that level picking between bell, DJ, Zeke, you know you are getting a good player. when it comes to RBs the question is always, who has the best chance of seeing that field, with a lot of production. and best chance, its sure not going to be the only guy who lost his HC and QB, and was just out for a year. and is the oldest. so i dont think its crazy to not want any shares of DJ at his price. there are just options i would rather have because of opportunity, age, team makeup, everything. sorry for rambling, long story short, pick who you want to pick, but i like the reasons to not go for DJ.

Is it a worse team though? The truth is you don’t know, and neither do I. They were a 7 win team in 2015. The best advice I’ve ever gotten in fantasy is to evaluate the talent, not the situation, because we consistently suck at predicting situation. Examples from last year: Gurley, both NO RBs, Fornette and Crowell. If you go back further, examples are everywhere.

I will happily take the talent, and advise everyone else to do the same. Situation is at best a tie breaker.

ignoring the situation isnt a good move though. if you just go off of talent, you will be wrong way more often. thats like saying well, Jarvis Landry is a great PPR talent. so obviously he is going to do exactly what he did in miami, with the browns. it just doesnt work that way. and if you want to go off of pure talent, bell is more talented, and i would argue zeke is too. so even still just based off of talent, there are others i would much rather have for the price. im not saying im lock in as correct, because to think you know EXACTLY what will happen is insanity. but the odds of something happening is what we base this off of. and the odds say that DJ will regress and regress pretty hard. so why go with a guy who has so many question marks, when you can get a younger, more talented, in a better situation, RB for the same price? because honestly, what are the chances that DJs team situation ends up being better than the steelers and cowboys? its not very high.

I’m sorry, but that’s simply not true. You certainly will miss some, because of course you will, but I’ve done it both ways, and I can tell you that one is much more effective over the long run.

If you want to miss, buy into the situation narrative (Gurley, Fornette, Crowell). Buy into YPC (Jeremy Hill going into year 2, Crowell again). But into the ‘they have to throw it to someone’ argument (they have to throw it at someone, it doesn’t have to be catchable and that mediocre target your trying to talk yourself into doesn’t have to be open/catch the ball).

Now, I will walk back my last post a bit. Situation shouldn’t be ignored entirely. Depth charts (with the position) matter. What you think the team wants to do (i.e. run first or past first) matters. It does not and should not override talent, especially when that talent is genuinely elite.

As for regression, I just showed you how he can regress in a major way and still be an absolute rock solid stud.

hey you have your opinion, i have mine. i evaluate just as much off of situation and i am very successful in fantasy football. so i could easily say its just not true what you are saying. you pick your spots. just like any strategy. but im glad you dont completely ignore situations cause that would be detrimental to your ability to evaluate. and i also agreed he very well could regress and be rock solid, like i also said. but we are talking about all but locked in top 3 guys (barring the usuals, injuries, things of that sort) where at best, if everything goes right, DJ is the number 4 guy to me. and the chances of DJ having as good of or better than Bell or zeke, or even gurley at this point (you can throw shade on gurley if you want, doesnt change that he is in a great spot and is an excellent tallent) is very slim. i mean why would he? did his team get better? no. did the coaching get better? no. is there any reason for him to stay on the same level he was at? no. dont get me wrong, a full season will produce RB1 numbers. you can take that to the bank. pure talent is great. situations are better. and pure talent with great situations are insane. so yeah, hands down, DJ is not worth the value. especially VS bell, VS Zeke, VS anyone who has just as much talent but better situations. i also feel like you are taking me saying situations are important, and somehow getting to me saying, you cant go wrong with situations. any strategy for evaluation is breakable. but just like those situations that were not good, there are just as many that were fantastic that worked out great. honestly at this point i really want to be in a league with you haha. because we are always arguing the opposite sides of things. which i find interesting. but, to wrap this up, you havent really given me any reason to change m mind on this. just another situation between us where we will just have to wait and see!

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We can agree to disagree, but to clarify, he can regress by more than 20% and still be a top 3 guy. But we can drop that.

Just out of curiosity, where would you out him within the position, if you were drafting today?

Dynasty or redraft?

Redraft, he is still my number 3 or 4 guy. I would take bell and Zeke, maybe Gurley before him depending on who I’m drafting with, who I think I can get in the second so on so forth. Dynasty I have him ranked 6th probably. Bell, zeke, Gurley, kamara, and fournette are all pretty easy picks before him for me depending again on situation and who I’m drafting with. Hunt is very close as well.

And I get what you are saying about regressing 20%, I just think he regressed much more. By itself the TDs will regress him about 20%. I think he loses about 400 yards as well though, and I do think he gets less catches as well. Nothing crazy bad, just more like 60 to 70 range. I’m hitting him with the double regression. 1000 yards rushing, 600 catching, 65 ish catches, about 10 TDs. Good good numbers. Just not what they were for sure.

Interesting. I don’t really see a reason to think they’re going to be significantly worse than 2016 (that was a bad team), and I would be shocked if his receptions in particular decreased significantly, especially if they do happen to be terrible.