Dynasty Orphan Rebuild Questions

Hello everyone,

I apologize for the novel in advance, but I am new to dynasty, and I have some dynasty rebuild questions that I was hoping to get some feedback on regarding an orphan team I just took over and will rebuild.
League scoring is 12 team, standard PPR, 1 QB, 2 Flex. To be straight forward, this team will take a few years at least to rebuild as all my RBs are NFL backups, no receiver better than a WR3, and no TE ranked in the top 10. Also, I have Rodgers who I am hopeful to trade to a contender later in the season for possibly a 1st rounder, but not banking on it since it is not SF (2nd round pick most likely). Our rookie draft is coming up and I have the 1.05, 2.01, 3.01, 4.01, and 5.01 picks for this year’s draft.

My current thought process to rebuilding is this:

  1. I will most likely finish dead last and collect the 1.01 in next year’s draft. So, I am hoping to sell my 1.05 for a 2022 1st round and either a 2022 3rd or 4th round pick. It is possible a contender offers me to swap 2021 first round picks and add on a later round draft pick for 2021 or 2022. Ideally, I would like to trade this pick to someone who is not a contender so my chances of getting a higher 2022 1st round pick are greater. However, I will not deny a trade with a contender if I feel the deal is worthwhile. But this would possibly give me two 2022 1st round picks to work with.
    → My first question is this: If I do not receive any offers worth accepting and I do end up drafting a player from the 1.05, should I draft a QB for the long term (even though it is 1 QB league), go after a WR since they typically have a longer shelf life, or draft an early RB as I could possibly have this team rebuilt when the RB is at their peak and trade him in his prime for draft capital, or turn around a trade the RB in 1-2 years if they breakout (risky chance). I am curious on want everyone’s thoughts or experiences are and see if maybe there is another alternative that I have not thought about yet?

  2. Next, there are no taxi squads in this league, and every roster has a max limit of 20 players with 2 IR spots. 5 rounds seem like a lot of rounds considering the lack of taxi squads, and the smaller roster size.
    → So, my question is this, should I build up future late round draft picks through trades to try and package them for low-risk, high potential players that are already in the NFL? Or, since I am currently rebuilding, should I still try and draft as many rookies as possible since I feel like I will have the roster space right now to handle the risk of multiple busts for the possibility that 1-2 players breakout? This is of course assuming I don’t have more draft picks than roster size.

While rebuilding, I would like to continuously have multiple early round draft picks at my disposal because rookie draft picks will always have value. But I am also trying to figure out on whether I should try and collect as many mid to late round picks as possible to either package them for higher draft capital or just throw darts at rookies since I will have the roster space for the next couple of seasons. Once I am done rebuilding I will probably continuously sell my 3rd to 5th round picks for players because if not, I feel like I will be cutting 2-3 rookies every year without the taxi.

I apologize again for the novel, but I wanted to get my initial questions into one post.

Thank you.

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Howdy!

I’ll do my best to give my opinions on this. I have a couple teams I decided to let burn and am targeting the 2023 draft for my turn around. I’ve been aggressively collecting picks for that draft. Fortunately it looks like it will be very strong, but TBH I went after it because it was the furthest draft at the time and it was easier to grab those picks. I have in one league 5 1sts and 7 1sts in the other. It’ll be a long bumpy ride, but I think knowing the target helps. I’d hope you can see the light to your master plan and just focus on that.

Now that’s out of the way, on to your questions:

  1. Dump picks for 2021. IMHO this class is way too over valued. There are definite top end talents and definitely there will be surprises, but this class is suuuuupppppeeerrrrrr wide but only really deep at the top. I’d try trading back first. You are still squarely in the hot zone for this draft. I was able to move back a single spot (1.04 to 1.05) and pull an additional first in 2022 and Miles Sanders. That should not be expected, but it happened. I’d use any acquired move back picks to try and flip for the future 2022/2023 classes. NOTE: IMHO 2022 will be very potent at the top but pretty empty in the 2nd and beyond. I’d do everything I could to get 1st rounders only and then move back to 2023. I know everyone says it, but that class is shaping up to be a monster.

If you cannot trade, I’d 100% grab a WR with your first pick or Pitts if he’s available. You should, assuming you still have it, burn the 2.01 on a QB. It’s been looking like only 1QB leagues leave the 1st with typically 1 QB taken, maybe a 2nd if a back end team is needy. The 2.01 should give you your choice of 3 or 4 QB from this draft. Every other pick I’d package for picks down the road. Even if you get 2022 2nds, those will gain value as the draft approaches next season.

The biggest point is you do not want to accidentally back into a team that can win 3-5 games and screw up your 2022 1.01. QB in a single QB league do not normally carry that much extra value, but you still need them and a rookie with long term potential can set you up for years and years. It gets overlooked from a team strategy. TE also takes some time. I’m not sure Pitts is all that, but he does look good. TE is reportedly the hardest position to learn for the offense because of how they are used. Normally it’s a 2 or 3 year window before they take off. Pitts could drop perfectly into your build assuming everything works. WR is similar, but they can hit sooner. Do not expect a rack of high caliber WRs straight away. It just happened, but that was pretty rare. Normally there is one or two, but they are not always who you think. But as you note, the longer shelf life means you are not burning them while rebuilding.

  1. Normally I’d say go for packaging and get a somewhat known talent. However, If you hit you run the risk to mess up your 2022 draft. If you go for more picks, I’d move this year for 2022/2023 late rounds in a 2 for 1 type deal. You can always package them to jump up in the draft if you need them. In this scenario I’d actually try to jump to the 2023 class and maybe get 2 more 2nd rounds. I could see a 2021 3 for a 2023 2nd. Also a 2021 4th & 5th for a 2022 3rd or maybe 2nd. Then next year moving that for the 2023 2nd. Just ideas.

That said, given the composition of this class it might not be a bad idea to throw darts. It is a wide pool and there are many legit candidates to surprise. I pushed back all the picks I could for 2023, then I cleared out lots of dead wood from my roster and went ham on the wire. I grabbed everyone I could still lingering in hopes they hit. For me, that let me move picks for what I think will be a better draft class while still taking multiple shots from the wire but not burning draft capital. If they do not work, well I’ll need folks to cut come 2023 anyway :slight_smile:

The big hope for me is to have some of these guys hit and flip them for draft picks. It’s tough to give up someone who hit for a lottery pick, but IMHO these ‘hits’ were found money. If I can turn that into something other owners will likely pay more for in the draft it just makes sense. NOTE: Broad stroke there. If a player really starts crushing it (Robinson in JAX) it might be hard to move him. That said, ETN is there now…maybe moving him wouldn’t have been so bad especially if your are gunning for strong early picks?

Whew! I hope any of this is helpful. IMHO trading back is always smart unless you are sitting on the edge of a big tier. I’ve started to draft best player available opposed to team need with the idea I could get better trades. IE: I need a WR but I’m looking down N Harris. Sure I could take Chase, but grabbing N Harris would likely get me a a strong proven WR plus given the desperation for RB (generally). Clearly all leagues are different, but sometimes the actual name pulls more return than the pick itself. Especially to teams without a shot at the player.

IMHO the biggest takeaway is commit. Do not change plans. IF you are going into the productive struggle (not my term but I love it!), just accept it. Move those players / picks to help you attain your goals. What ever they might be. Mixing the idea will nearly always water down your strategy and you’ll be finishing 5-8 for years. IMHO that is not worth it. I’m either bottoming out or swinging for the fences.

Try remembering nothing is promised in FF. As much of a ‘sure thing’ TLaw might be, he’s still never taken an NFL game rep. We never know until we know. Make a plan, follow it through. Learn from and modify once it has run the course!

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  1. I really do appreciate you taking the time to respond. It is always nice hearing from others and what their experiences and thoughts are. At first, I was considering gathering as many 2022 picks as possible for a shorter rebuild time, but I honestly don’t believe I have enough pieces to make that quick of a turn around and feel like I could start stacking for 2023. I do like your idea of trading for picks a couple of years out as it seems like people undervalue them and overvalue the immediate picks. I do 100% believe I will find a good deal that I cannot refuse for my 1.05. However, I plan to trade the pick away when I am actually on the clock in a couple of weeks. I feel like that is when most owners are willing to over pay in the moment. Especially since either the RB3, WR2, QB1, or possibly Pitts will be available. But if I absolutely cannot find a trade that is worth it, I will definitely snag a WR. I believe Chase may be off the board by my 1.05 pick, but if not I will take him or Waddle.

  2. I believe I can find a balance between packaging some picks for a talent or two while also maintaining enough picks to keep draft capital available. I have already received a couple of offers that included several draft picks but it was all 2nd-4th rounders for my 1.05, and another offer that included a player and a draft pick. I appreciate the ideas you put there about possible scenarios. Helps me think about how some leaguemates may value rookie picks.

As for Rodgers, I am sort of stuck with him at the moment with his whole GB dilemma. But I am hopeful he plays this year and has another strong year so I can trade him to a contender mid season. I don’t expect to move him before the season starts.

Again, thank you for taking the time to respond. I will definitely keep these notes as a reference and hopefully can get the most future value possible.

Howdy!

Sounds like you have a great course of action. I think that plan should work out for you. And if not we’ll be failing together :wink:

Depending on how your draft is timed, it might be hard to make good trades OTC. I’ve had two slow drafts so it was easy to take and work through many options. I’d check that ahead of time to make sure you can go back and forth before the clock expires. I’d also start talking with potential owners now just so you know where they land and who might be a great target. But definitely make sure you have hours or more to make a pick. The normal 90-120 second clock is not enough time.

I think you are good with Rodgers unless he truly hangs up his cleats. That said, the 2.01 is a sweet spot to take a QB now so you do not have to do that with your picks to come. Unless you can move your 2.01 for future 1sts. At least IMHO.

Good luck and have fun!

  • Craig Coffman