I have 1.03 and 1.07 for the Rookie Draft. Should I trade my 1.03 for a WR (Martavis Bryant/Tyreek Hill) + 1.06 rookie. I really need WRs on this team or should keep the 1.03 and take one of the top RBs from this class or Corey Davis?
you would get both of those WRs plus the 1.06? or just one of them? either way im doing it. you lose 3 spots but gain an explosive WR talent (or 2 if thats what you meant) and you still get one of the top RB prospects. a better one in my opinion. after fournette im not excited about the next three. mccaffery, mixon or cook are all… meh to me. kareem hunt and samaje perine are much more exciting to me, and more able to produce. so if you agree with me, its a no brainer. if you dont, i still think getting that explosive WR is worth it.
Why are you fading mixon?
I think Corey Davis is the only tier 1 rookie WR going to a great situation. If you can get him at 1.06, I absolutely take the trade. If not, I think a little harder about it. Bryant and Hill are both risky, and at 1.06 you miss out on the tier 1 rookie RBs and possibly Davis. I do project Bryant and Hill outpacing Corey Davis this year - but probably not for very long.
You could also use the 3 and 7 on a combo of something like Mixon and Perine and hope one of them vets early and use it as trade leverage to get a solid WR a few weeks into the season. If your team can survive that.
the system he is in, the coaches he has, and the players around him. everything screams RBC to me. im not saying he will suck, or he wont get the ball at all. but i do think his production is lessened, where hunt and perine both are in spots to just run the whole backfield. if mixon and perines spots are reversed, im thinking he exact same thing. mixon is going to be a stud, and perine will produce just not as much as you would like. placement is just as, if not more important than player skill. its why people like jay ajayi this year even though he is garbage. opertunity. its why melvin gordon was a great option last year even though he averaged something like 3.7 yards a carry. plenty of opportunity. its what i base almost all of my rookie predictions off of.
Who do you see as a bigger threat to mixons volume: hill or gio?
Yeah, I was leaning towards doing it. I totally agree with you, except for the Joe Mixon part. I think he will be a stud in the future. However, I have Robert Kelly and a good depth at RBs. Adding Hill + Kareem Hunt and Perine will be good for the upcoming seasons. BTW, the trade will be only for one of the WRs I mentioned.
I know both Bryant and Hill involve risk, but the same applies for any rookie, I guess. Honestly, taking Mixon and Perine is what I planned… As a bengal fan I love Mixon. Many things to consider, but your advise is really good. Thanks!
early on, its hill. because gio wont be there. i actually think ill look like a fool until gio gets back because he will be producing early on in PPR. but i also think we dont see many TDs because of hill being the goal line guy. so honestly, its both. gio will take away receptions, and hill will take away red zone carries. so what you are left with (in my opinion) is a guy who will get you to the market, but someone else is getting the bacon. honestly i have no idea what i just said but it felt right haha. esentially i mean he might end up with 100 rushing yards, but no TDs and no receptions.
hey no problem! its what we are here for right? to share ideas. even if we dont agree on all of them.
Isn’t perine in a similar conundrum? Thompson snakes passing yards and fat rob snakes early down and goal line work?
We don’t know how the offense will develop without Sean McVay. Maybe Thompson losses third down pass opportunities. For my case, Perine will be a great pick; I have Fat Rob on my roster.
thompson i can agree with, but fat rob is getting replaced. mixon isnt a better goal line runner than hill, or a better pass catcher than gio. he is good at both, but i really see him as a pace setter in that offense. where perine is a pace setter and goal line upgrade over fat rob. and maybe you dont agree that mixon isnt better hill on the goal line, or that gio is a better pass catcher. but to me, he is a better all around back, but he is not better than both of them combined.
I’m not disagreeing with you, I think you have a really well reasoned argument that I haven’t heard before. Thank you for sharing it!
How are you arriving at the conclusions that Perine is better than fat rob at the goaline, whereas Mixon is inferior to his two counterparts in their respective domains?
The rabbit hole goes deeper when you look at contracts.
Hill finishes up his rookie contract this year and will be an UFA in 2018.
Gio was signed to an extension through 2019 at about 5 million/year.
Because of this, it makes sense that Mixon will get every opportunity to be the lead ball carrier, since they will not want to resign/pay Hill next year and replacing him with a player on a rookie contract is the smartest money move. It also means they are comfortable with Gio as their pass catcher. But with him out to start the season, Mixon should get some balls thrown his way. It makes sense that if Mixon can handle both responsibilities well, CIN will not resign Hill and could cut or trade Gio to save the cap space. Point is, CIN would be literally wasting money to not at least TRY to see if Mixon can be an all-downs back.
It comes down to film. All eye test. There is no quantifiable number that i can point you to, because college is so different than the NFL you cant compare numbers from the two. So after watching fat rob struggle behind a solid solid run o line, and seeing perine dominate, it just makes sense. Where in Cincinnati, I have seen Jeremy hill and good look like clear cut number 1 RBs, only to be benched and swapped constantly. Add mixon into that mix and well… more of the same. Now im not blind to the arguments against me on this, I just see it going this way. Where perine you can see he is the same kind of back as fat rob, so you can deduce that if he is better, he is his replacement. Which i think he is much much better. Mixon isnt like that. Now if hill leaves next year like Ryan here is deducing, then that opens up a whole lot of options for mixon. Call it a gut feeling at this point, I just don’t see it going down like that. Or even if it does, I just don’t have the faith in mixon to be that every down back. And a lot of people disagree with me on that, I just don’t see that next level skill that everyone sees on him. That’s a point I haven’t made yet that might also explain why im not so high on him. Anyway, I have rambled on, and I have more cleaning to do. If you have any other questions on what I think of it all in more than happy to answer!
We need the equivalent of a reception perception for rb’s, and it needs to be a larger sample size (as does the wr reception perception).
You think Cincy would risk the PR issues for just another RB by committee guy?
they have done it before. not for an RBC, but they have always gone after guys that were a bit questionable. im also not saying mixon is an RBC guy, i think he could be a very good stand alone back. problem is, thats how they have ran the ball over in cinci for as long as i can remember. RBC. well, at least in the last ten years. i remember rudi being a solo guy. its just something they have adopted. mixon may change all that, but i thought the same for hill, and gio.
i would love a runnning back perception btw. that would make my day.