Dynasty Rookie Draft Trade (TL;DR at Bottom)

Hi, everybody! My rookie draft has started and I have a trade on the table I’m trying to judge and potentially counter. For context, this is a 10-team dynasty league that starts 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 2 FLEXes, 1 K, and 1 DST. We have 14 bench spots, three IR spots, and four taxi squad spots, as well. Our rookie draft is four rounds long. Here is my roster:

Starting Lineup (8/10):
QB: Deshaun Watson
RB1: Aaron Jones
RB2: Austin Ekeler
WR1: Julio Jones
WR2: DeAndre Hopkins
TE: Jared Cook
FLEX1: Mark Ingram
FLEX2: Brandin Cooks
K: Empty
DST: Empty

Bench (12/14):

  • QBs: Matt Ryan, Cam Newton
  • RBs: Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, Justin Jackson, Chris Thompson
  • WRs: Marvin Jones, Anthony Miller, Dede Westbrook, Phillip Dorsett
  • TEs: Blake Jarwin, Hayden Hurst

IR (0/3):

  • Empty

Taxi Squad (4/4):

  • Miles Boykin
  • Allen Lazard
  • Chris Herndon (I expect Sleeper to force me to move him to my bench soon)
  • Jace Sternberger

2020 Draft Picks: 1.08, 1.10, 3.08, 4.01, 4.08
Future Draft Picks: All my own picks in both 2021 and 2022

So far, the first three players gone have been (in order): Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jonathan Taylor, and Jerry Jeudy. I’ve reached out to the managers at 1.04, 1.05, and 1.06 to see if there’s any interest in trading down to either one of my 1.08 or 1.10 spots. I have an eye on either CeeDee Lamb or J.K. Dobbins, and was hoping to get there.

The owner at 1.04 hasn’t responded yet (he’s at work, I believe). The owner at 1.06 said he wanted to see who was still left on the clock before making a decision. The owner at 1.05 was very open to trading down to the 1.08, at the cost of my moving down a round in next year’s draft. In other words, I would send the 1.08 and my 2021 first round pick to him for his 1.05 and his 2021 second round pick.

Is this kind of trade a fair value for me? And if not, what is? How much should I be willing to give up? Or maybe more importantly, are Lamb and Dobbins worth making that trade up for at all? Or should I just let two guys fall to me at the 1.08 and 1.10 (I’m hoping for at least one of Justin Jefferson and Jalen Reagor, if not both)?

If you guys got this far, thanks for reading. Any help would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!

TL;DR: I want one of either CeeDee Lamb or J.K. Dobbins in my rookie draft and I think I need to trade up for them. Is it worth moving back from the first round to second round next year to add one of those two guys? And if not, how much should I be willing to give up?

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I don’t mind the trade. However the challenge to accept would be that your not trading up into another tier for me. It’s lateral.

My rookie tiers:

  1. CEH and Taylor
  2. Lamb, Dobins, Swift, Jeudy, Akers, Reagor, and Jefferson.
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That price is probably fair, but I’m not sure I’m doing it. As @fun4willis notes you are trading into a large tier for me. I am not sure any of those guys he lists are dramatically different. However, CeeDee and JK are my two favorite guys at the top of the draft, so I feel your pain. I have them as my top 2 which puts things in a bit of a pickle.

CeeDee I think can be something very special in the league. Perhaps I am just sad I was unable to get him, but I really think he’ll be a long term gem. JK will be a force and I can see top flight production for him, which admittedly will require a bit of a shift from BAL. I see CeeDee being a stronger asset much longer and that’s why I’d prioritize him.

Sounds like you are the 1.08 based on your picks. IF this owner is the 1.05 (didn’t trade for it) I would probably consider it more. They are moving back which means they are still getting a nice pick, but nothing too dramatic or roster altering. It means you might be a stronger unit for the year, which might give you a later pick. The loss of your 1st for their 2nd is a risk of course, but you might be giving up the 1.10 and getting the 2.05. That’s not a huge difference, especially when 2021 looks to be just a jammed packed with talent.

I’d probably do this, but here are some options. I would suggest talking to the 1.04 but not worrying about he 1.04 unless he wants less to move back on the cheap. Else, your trade for the 1.05 seems good. Definitely do this if CeeDee is still there. He’d be my priority over JK.

NOTE: if neither of them go at 1.04 you could immediately pivot to the 1.06. Moving up 2 slots should not cost you much. Then you can take which ever player is left. While I like CeeDee more, neither have taken a single NFL snap and there are many hot talents that do not pan out. I’d take the value of whomever is left by moving up cheaply to the 1.06.

I hope that makes sense. There are many parts to consider. These are just my thoughts, but I hope they help!

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@octoberland That definitely helps! Dobbins ended up going at the 1.04 because that manager didn’t check his messages before making the pick. He said he’d be willing to re-visit and potentially trade him to me for the 1.08 + assets if the board fell in a certain way, which it didn’t.

I spent some time talking to the manager at 1.05 but ended up choosing not to make that deal, just because I wasn’t confident enough in it, and that owner ended up taking Lamb, which was painful. Sucks to not get him, but I’ll survive. If Lamb had fallen to 1.06, I would’ve reached out to that manager and discussed a trade, but he didn’t. That manager took Akers at 1.06.

1.07 through 1.10 got hectic, just because I happened to hold half of those picks (1.08 and 1.10) and the manager at 1.07 started a bidding war over his pick for Swift. I tried to move up from 1.10 to 1.07, so I could secure two of the Swift/Jefferson/Reagor group, but it didn’t work out. That manager ended up not trading 1.07 and took Swift there, but then he traded Joe Mixon away for Odell Beckham Jr. and 1.09. With 1.09, he then offered a deal where I could move down to that spot from the 1.08 while picking up his own 2021 second round pick (which I project to be early- to mid-round). I figured I was only getting one of Jefferson or Reagor, my two targets, either way, and they were both close enough for me that the option of choosing between them wasn’t critical. I knew that owner was targeting Jefferson (because he’s a Vikings fan), so I traded down from 1.08 to 1.09 to get that extra second round pick next year.

I took Reagor at 1.09 and am currently on the clock at 1.10, where I have about another 19 hours to make a move. I told the league I’d be fielding offers until later tonight (roughly another five hours), but it doesn’t look like anything is gaining much traction, unfortunately. If someone does offer enough future draft assets for me to move back but stay within this Ruggs/Higgins/Mims/Pittman Jr. tier, I’ll consider it. Otherwise, I have options to draft one of these young receivers (or a RB like a Ke’Shawn Vaughn).

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whoa! that did get crazy. The picks all seem to line up with the players chosen, but that’s some action in the top of the draft.

I think you played it well to slide back. Jefferson / Reagor are a push to me. Depends on who you like more, but I think both have a decent shot. I like your available choices but you are in a spot where it is hard to move out of due to so much similarity, barring someone desperate for a RB in which Vaughn becomes an option.

Not that you are asking, but here’s how I’d rank them:
Mims - volatile, highest upside w/ clear path. Shaky offense ATM. Risk high / Reward high
Pittman - likely good role immediately, strong team. Good QB. Risk low / Reward high
Higgins - crowded, new QB. Bad defense = good for him. Risk moderate / Reaward moderate
Ruggs - better for NFL than FF, crowded, QB? Risk high / Reward moderate

Expanded. I think Mims is the only one who can really take the lid off. He’s raw and needs to adjust / refine, but should be out there immediately. He has the traits to be a true baller. Pittman I also like and should have a similar opportunity, but I think his ceiling is a little lower and it looks like they are building towards a run team. The improving DST should only help that vision. Higgins is similar to Pittman, but he is in a very crowded WR room. Boyd / Erickson / Ross / Tate are all players there already and have shown their mettle. Not to mention, for at least this year, AJG. At a similar play style and role, I’ll take Pittman all day. Even with the unsure QB moving forward in IND. Ruggs I really like and was far more impressed with his college play than I had expected. But he looks to be more of a boom bust type player and they have play makers already on board. Not sure he just walks in and dominates. He brings a new element to the team, crazy speed, but not sure that is enough. Renfrow is very good and Edwards ought to combine to take most of the common plays. Waller is there to soak up targets as well. I just do not see how they use the speed guy more consistantly. I think he’ll likely end seasons ranked well, but it’s more due to periodic explosions followed by stretches of calm.

Vaughn I am a believer in, but if you do not need RB best to stay with any of those WR. I’d even roll the dice on Ruggs if RB were not a sore spot. That said, I am personally in on Vaughn. He’s a flag guy for me at the top of the draft.

All this might be too late, but figured I’d get back to you with my thoughts. Just remember every player is a crap shoot. There are no right choices. The jump from Saturday to Sunday is massive and not everyone clears the bar. Any of those guys are fine picks or they would not be clustered by so many analysts. Everyone is just guessing :slight_smile:

Hope this help and the draft goes your way!

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Thanks! You were right about being unable to trade back from the 1.10. I put feelers out to a few of the teams, but those that responded weren’t interested in the price it would’ve cost. I would’ve been trading back to the 2.05 or 2.06, which I viewed as being in a different tier, so the price was a bit higher.

At 1.10, I ended up taking Higgins. I don’t really trust the Jets offense enough, even long-term, to want Mims. Not really sure what to make of Darnold and the fact that Gase is still there turned me off from that idea. I really liked Pittman Jr. as a prospect going into the NFL draft back in April, but the combination of competing (with Parris Campbell) for the WR2 spot on his own team and having an aging QB and uncertainty at that position beyond this year scared me away.

It ultimately came down to Higgins and Vaughn for me. I like(d) Vaughn a lot and his opportunity is tremendous in what should be a great offense. Concern with him was that Arians has a short leash when it comes to things like blown pass protection with young guys, and I didn’t want to get myself invested into another uncertain backfield.

I had the same concerns with Higgins as the ones you mentioned, but I felt okay going with him for a few reasons. The draft capital they invested into him was significant enough to me to be less worried about the competition in that WR room beyond this year. My hope is he and Burrow, coming into the league together, grow together and build some sort of rapport, so he can be a player for me two or three years down the line. I also remembered back to watching him late in the CFB season and being impressed at his ability to make certain catches, and that stuck with me enough to be willing to take the gamble on him.

Since then, the draft has been flying along pretty quickly. The team at 3.03 is on the clock and my remaining picks are 3.08, 4.01, and 4.08. I’ve gotten inquiries on Mostert, but the teams are asking what my price for him is, and I have absolutely no idea what a fair one is LOL. I still have to think through that a bit.

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Nice!

I agree on the NYJ, but IMHO Gase is gone sooner than later and Darnold I believe in. That kid is so young still and has two years in the league. But betting on the Jets is not a strong play :wink:

I’m a CLE fan, so perhaps I should not talk!

I think you are right with Higgins in that draft capital matters. My only concern is those guys have been doing well when healthy and through a jacked up o-line. No one killed it, don’t get me wrong. But I think they have earned a spot and won’t just be cast aside. I like Higgins as a talent and think he will compete, but I see it more murky than you see IND.

IND will be losing TY sooner than later, and I am not sure PC is enough to keep Pittman off the field. At worst Pittman is the immeidate 3 which gives him playing time. QB is a concern for sure.

I do not think Higgins is bad and do not want to come off that way. I am not as big a Burrow fan as others, but I like that rookie to rookie pairing. Any stud WR with a young QB is alluring.

I would not move Mostert for players in the 3rd or later rounds. I think his upside is too great. If you move him, which I do understand, I would look to target 2021 picks. That class is stacked and you might get a round bump due to distance until that draft. Normally you can get people in the heat of a current draft not valuing the future properly. Just something to consider.

But Mostert could be the guy in SF. Or rather the lead guy. I do not see them moving off the RBBC but he might be the head. I think he can catch, so if they open that up to him he gets another bump. Or he sits in a quagmire of who knows which week. If you could move him for a nice 2021 pick or a different asset I would be open to that if it were me.

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