Dynasty Saquon?

I have the fourth pick in a start up dynasty league. Pretty sure that Gurley and Zeke will be taken in the top three picks. I love the idea of building a team around Saquon Barkley over the next 8 years or so.
What do you guys think about taking him at 4 when Odell or Hopkins may be on the board for me also?!

football is so unpredicatable, that not taking something predictable like a top WR or bell or DJ is hard to do. barkley has all the tools, but we havent seen him suit up yet in the NFL. his chances of success at a high rate are good, but people like OBJ, hopkins, DJ, and bells chances are better. i always play to win now, and the future. i think one of them gives you a better chance. now, if you can trade back and pick barkley at pick 8 or something, that would at least give you enough value back to make the risk of barkely in the first worth it. but, if you do go barkley 4 overall, wont blame you. he does look as locked as possible to be damn good.

How many teams? And there is not a separate rookie draft? If Barkley is there at 4, I would take him. It is a bit of a risk because he is a rookie, but he has the talent and opportunity. If rookies are included with vets in the draft, there is no way he would last until pick 8 if you try to trade back, there is a chance he isn’t there at 4.

I would share @BusterD sentiment that I like to build around WR.

This doesn’t really answer your question about Barkley. However I was struck by your mention of ‘8 years’.

My oldest dynasty league is three years. I’ve since joined a few more dynasty leagues so I have a range of experiences. What I’ve seen is that there is very little chance you would keep any player for 8 years. Especially in an active (meaning good) league. I’ve seen almost every one of the top 12 ADP players moved, something multiple times.

Not sure if this impacts your overall strategy but I wanted to share.

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I’d take Barkley at 6 or later… If you wanna go with upside thats fine… But if Hopkins or OBJ are there at #4 I’d take them in that order no question… You just can’t turn down that proven production and they will produce at a high lvl for the next 5 years.

But this is your team and your going to be stuck with the majority of your pieces for awhile. So construct it how you want to… That’s why dynasty is great… You are the GM and can do what you want

But if it was me I’d go Hopkins, Gurley, OBJ, Zeke top 4

The unproven point is moot to me. It really comes down to how much you believe in Saquon. I’m 100% sold, so I absolutely would lean taking him at #4! It’s football… Nobody is a guarantee. Odell went 3rd in my draft last year and missed the entire season. David Johnson went 1st overall and did the same.

So the idea that you’ll have any certainty beyond talent is a farce, IMO. Also — this is dynasty for a reason. It’s so you can take guys like Saquon and have them for a long time. You also have to look at it like this; Say Saquon comes out and just crushes it, but you chose to pass on him. You’ll deeply regret it, because deep down you knew he was that great. That’s the way I navigate my picks. It’s "Who an I going to be the most disappointed to watch dominate for the next person? ". And Saquon is all the way at the top of that list for me. Nothing about him says bust. It all points to the HOF.

The Giants themselves passed on 4 franchise QBs and a draft trade haul to take him, and they have a multi-billion dollar franchise on the line. So have confidence! lol

In a dynasty league, i think you can consider Hopkins over Barkley but I believe OBJ over Barkley has it’s own risks as well. We only know OBJ in the Manning era and if there is one thing I know is having a star WR with a worthless QB leaves you with a mediocre (tier 2/flex) WR in the end. Look at DT in Denver. Hopkins too. Now that they have their QB in Houston, I am more confident he is going to shine. The points against Barkley are deserved. Stars in college don’t necessary translate in the NFL. That being said, I feel his skills matched with his attitude/personality (for me) put him at a lower risk vs OBJ.