Dynasty Start-Up Keeper Pick

Superflex dynasty start-up draft is coming up. We get to pick one player from last year’s team to start off this year’s.

All summer long, I’ve been confident in keeping Justin Herbert, but… now I have the third pick. I could go in with two top tier QBs. At the very least, one QB that should return great production is already in the stable.

But, I could also keep Jonathan Taylor. I’m a little nervous about his production with Hines and an injured line, but I can get a better QB than Herbert with the 3rd pick and start with a solid RB.

Am I right to switch it up to JT or do I take the long-term QB value?

Meh, I’m not a big Taylor fan–like you, I think the strong committee approach in Indy will limit him to RB2 production at best–and he won’t be playing teams that have given up all season like he did at the end of last year when Mack was hurt and he was posting eye-popping stats against Houston (twice), Las Vegas, and Jacksonville. (The Colts’ 2021 season opens with 6 of their first 8 games against top run defenses from last year, so if Taylor is a RB1 after Week 8, talk to me then.)

That said, I’m not a big fan of overvaluing QB, either, even in Superflex leagues. But given that this is a dynasty, AND you have a decent shot of locking down TWO young premium QBs (which CAN make a difference, even with a QB score averaged across two players) without costing yourself two rounds of premium picks, I think I keep Allen and score another top QB at #3.

Now, if Mahomes, Dak, and Murray (maybe Jackson, but if he ever quits running for 1000 yards and has to rely on his passing, he’ll be JAG) are all off the table at that point, then I’d revert back to drafting the best RB/WR available, and get your 2nd QB after you’ve added some premium skill players.