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Dynasty start-up what's the argument for ZEKE and hate for OBJ

#1

So I’ve been doing alot of dynasty mocks… Now i assume that most people in dynasty are doing PPR but i know that’s not 100% true and the mocks i have been doing don’t have a option to choose PPR… So my data is a very small sample size so i may be seeing stuff that others aren’t…

But 75% of mocks I’ve been doing ZEKE gets picked number #1 or #2.

Why is that… I know he is young and talented but His receiving targets are so low compared to some of the other top RBs going on the first round…

And then I’ve been seeing OBJ falling to the 1.06 or 1.08 in about 75% of drafts… I know he is coming off an injury and his team is pretty mediocre… But they are getting a should be stud in Barkley which should open up the passing game… Why so much hate for OBJ.

WR usually last longer than RBs so it’s good to go WR in dynasty and especially a PPR format… So if i go RB I’d much rather have a gurley or bell or DJ who are involved in the passing game but usually I’d still take OBJ above all those but maybe gurley.

The reason i ask if i have a #4 pick in a PPR dynasty start-up and most rankings out there Zeke is number 4-5 depending on where its at… But in mocks he is going 1 or 2 almost all the time. So I’d love some advice on that pick and maybe someone can help me understand the love for Zeke and the semi hate for OBJ in that format.

Dynasty start up RB
#2

I would not take Zeke in my top 5. What site are you doing dynasty mocks?

For me OBJ, Hopkins, Gurley, Brown, Bell, DJ, Zeke.

#3

I just started a dynasty start up and we’re going on pick 10 and OBJ hasn’t been picked yet, it’s insane. I think it’s injury and QB concerns that are pushing him down. Recency bias is very real, and because he wasn’t seen last season people forget just how dominant he is.

#4

@fun4willis I’m using https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com

For mocks… Is there another site you would reccomend for dynasty?

#5

That site is whack. It’s not great at all in terms of getting actual idea of draft position. TBH, you need to do real money leagues to see real drafts. In free mock drafts, you get a lot of guys just going crazy and doing weird things, not something they would do in a real draft.

Zeke is a generational talent so I couldn’t fault someone for taking him at like 1.03 over OBJ, but for the most part, OBJ should be top 3 off the board. Especially in a PPR format.

I definitely wouldn’t place too much weight on it.

#6

@MikeMeUpp ok thanks… It’s one of the only few sites i found that did dynasty drafts. Good to know i shouldn’t put much stock in it.

So since I’m the 1.04 if OBJ, Hopkins and Gurley go before me… Then would you take Zeke at number 4 no question

#7

I would take Brown. Prob in the minority there, but I expect him to have a monster year.

#8

It’s not no question. I think it is pretty close between Zeke and DJ. Even though DJ is older, he didn’t play last season at all and we know he is a superior receiver. I don’t believe in either Dallas or Cardinals teams this year and each have their risks.

Zeke: Dallas defense is not that great and Dak has clearly regressed. They have no receiver talent to stretch the field so you know zeke is seeing a stacked box all day every day. They are in a really tough division and I could see them getting blown out of the game and Zeke getting taken out of the game script. Having said that, I think Zeke is a superior talent and in the long term, I am a huge believer.

DJ: Coming back off injury so has had a whole year to rest. He’ll be fresh and have something to prove. However, you have a totally new coach / offensive scheme / QB so who knows whether or not they will feed him like Arians did. My guess would be probably yes but that is the major risk. And although they also have a pretty bad team, they do have a better defense and slightly better talent at WR. Also, if they do get blown out, you know DJ is in there as a receiver so he is game script proof.

Those are the factors that you should be considering. I couldn’t fault you for going either way cause it becomes really close in a full PPR format. I personally would prefer Zeke given he is significantly younger than DJ and IMO, will become a future hall of famer and is attached to a decent young QB. All depends on your team comp. If you have more of an opportunity to win now and given Full PPR, strong case to be made for DJ.

#9

He will definitely have a monster year. But end of the day, this is dynasty so you have to consider future years. Brown is 29 and more importantly, who knows how many years Ben has left.

#10

i didnt read anything above me so this may have already been covered. its because of the recent RB bias that has cause everyone to covet the top end RBs to the point of taking people like fournette, hunt, and gordon over OBJ. mix that up with offseason hype on zeke, and offseason NEGATIVE hype for OBJ, and the trends just push OBJ down. i have done mocks where i have gotten (in a 10 man PPR) OBJ at pick 9 and melvin gordon after the turn. so this is the year i kinda start looking the opposite way. i would love to have one of the top end guys, like a bell, gurley, zeke, or DJ. so if i dont have pick 1.04, im taking a WR round one. and in doing some of these mocks, i have found myself going back to RB0. picking 3 straight WRs. then relying on rookie RBs and older guys. taking players late like CJ anderson, or lynch. getting a guy like penny in the 5th or 6th round. maybe looking at barkley in the 1st too depending on where i pick and who is around.

#11

I’ve done the same. The 2nd and 3rd tier RBs are way overvalued right now. Beckham shouldn’t be getting out of the top 3 in any format, and really should be 1.01, imo.

#12

i still think you have to go RB with at least the first 3 picks just because of the crazy good value you get out of a top end RB. but i have 0 issue with going AB, hopkins, or OBJ 1.01. i would just prefer an RB that early. after that im looking at WRs pretty much from pick 1.05 and on.

#13

RB shelf life is just not long enough. I think you can get a lot more value drafting WRs high in the start up and then focusing on RBs later and in rookie drafts. Give me OBJ and Allen/Adams and then your preference of Guice/Penny/Michel/Rojo, etc later any day.

#14

you know, people say that about RB shelf life. but i just dont buy it. for sure, RBs dont last as long. but my team on a year to year basis changes so much that i couldnt tell you if i started with bell in a league, or traded for him. plus 5 years is a long time. and thats how long i think you can rely on the average guy starting off as a rookie. but either way, 3 years is a long time. i just never liked the idea that the hardest position to find, and get consistent points out of, is less valuable just because they wont be around as long. i get that over the years the points add up, but i can find comprable WRs later, along with picking them up easier off of waivers. so if i get 5 years out of picking zeke, over 10 years with OBJ, im happy with that honestly.

and honestly i forgot this was a dynasty question, so my answer changes a bit. zeke, gurley, OBJ, hopkins are the 4 guys i look at with pick 1.01. pump the breaks on bell a bit, same for DJ. i know he is only 26 but i have my concerns.

#15

I do think the point is taken a bit too far, but with guys like OBJ, who are legitimate elite talents, I think it really does. Having an important position locked down for 7-8 years by a guy who essentially guarantees you an advantage is a really big deal.

And I think if you really look back, RB shelf life really is a lot different, and fluctuates wildly. For every LT, AP, or Lynch there are two or three Larry Johnson, Preist Holmes, Terrell Davis, Ahmad Green, Eddy Lacy, Trent Richardson types who were great for a year or two and then totally disapppeared. There are just less of those guys in the upper echelon of WRs. RBs are also less reliable to stay healthy within a given year.

To be clear, this is just a tie breaker within tiers for me. I’m not taking Michael Thomas of Zeke, for example.

#16

yeah i feel you on that. thats why i took DJ out of my considerations for 1.01. people really dont like it when i say this, but he has bust potential written all over him. i feel confident with gurley and zeke for 5 years. but like i said, OBJ is still in consideration cause like you said, dude is just a beast and gives you an advantage.

#17

I get the concerns with DJ, but a lot of those same things were true in 2016 too. Palmer was done (honestly, the Bradford/Rosen combo may be an upgrade right away) and the OL was awful.

And even if they’re behind, he’s arguably their most dangerous passing down weapon, so I think he’s sneaky safe. And we’ve seen the upside.

#18

This is the tie breaker argument for DJ that you can use. He cannot be phased out of the game because he is at worst, their 2nd best receiving option after Fitz. Zeke is not used in the same way at all.

And if Bradford can stay healthy, I think he’s probably an upgrade over Palmer when he was at the end of the line. Key is stay healthy.