I have the 1.01 in my veteran draft. We have a Superflex half ppr. Do i take Mahomes or go right for CMC or Barkley?
Personally I would be taking CMC. Stud rbs are scarce and the short term (relative to qb careers) advantage you will get out of him should outpace mahomes value. Just take a gander back at 2019 and see where CMC finished ahead of Henry, big fall off. Versus streaming options or tossing in Fitzmagic in a pinch and have him throw up 20-30 points
But don’t feel bad if you pick CMC the next pick will probably be Mahomes. If you pick mahomes, CMC will be next off the board. A good spot to be in!
Is trading down an option? If your league trades veteran draft picks, seems like up to 1.04 is golden (I’m including Lamar Jackson in this quartet). If you could trade back 2-3 spots and pick up a 3rd round pick in the process, you’d get a leg up up. If you can’t, I’d go Mahomes (or Jackson) because it’s superflex and you’ll want that QB edge. As much as I love both CMcC and Saquon, RBs in dynasty are short-lived and top QBs may lead your team for 12+ years.
I think this decision depends on how many people are in your league, if it’s 4-pts or 6-pts for passing TDs, and most importantly, how you want to build your dynasty team:
If it’s a 10-team league, it usually favors RBs, since QB depth is there. If you have any more teams in your league though, that usually favors QBs.
If it’s a 4-pt per passing TD league it favors RBs but it doesn’t favor it as much as the difference between a 10 and 12-team league does.
As far as how you want to build your dynasty team, if you want to gear your team towards win now, I would take CMC. He’s in a tier of his own at the RB position in my opinion. If you would rather have a foundational piece for a much longer span of time, I would take Mahomes. The latter is how I like to play dynasty and that’s where my recommendation would go. The way I see it, on average QBs outlast RBs especially elite QBs. Not that elite RBs can’t have a long career, it’s just not as likely. I usually find that it’s better to supplement RBs in the rookie drafts or if you can grab them later in this draft, since they have a good chance of being Top 10 in the first year or two.
I really like what @cohenstantinople had to say about trading back, this is such a great strategy to do in drafts. In my opinion though, I feel like Mahomes is in a league of his own for superflex dynasty and would be well worth trading that 3rd for.
I feel like there is a pretty big difference between having Mahomes rather than Lamar Jackson. My biggest worry is career length for Jackson, running QBs usually have shorter careers. Jackson had 196 carries last year and will probably continue to run the ball 150+ times a year, that compares to Mahomes’ 43 carries last year. If you look at Mahomes in 2018 vs. Jackson in 2019 for ceiling purposes, Mahomes was 1-pt better in 6-pt per passing TD and 0.4-pt worse in 4-pt ppTD which is negligible either way you look at it, so the difference comes down to projected career length since they are both on great high scoring teams with great coaches.
In a .5PPR I’m taking Mahomes 1.01 no questions asked.
Pass catching RBs aren’t as valuable in half point leagues. QBs retain their value. It’s an easy decision in my eyes. I would draft youth at the WR and QB position and look for solid middle round RUNNING backs. I don’t care if they can catch the ball anymore because a catch doesn’t separate them that much anymore.
Go QBs often, the cheapest you’ll get them in SF leagues is the draft!!!