Fantasy Football: Why DeAndre Hopkins Won't Repeat 2017

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If you’ve been on the site recently, we’ve been highlighting a number of potential WR1 profiles from players ranked outside of the Ballers consensus top 15 rankings. I want to switch gears and dive into a top-end WR. I want to explain why Texans All-Pro DeAndre Hopkins won’t repeat his magnificent fantasy season. If you’re…

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I know I’m in the minority but I agree. I’m watching guys like Beckham and Julio fall into the 2nd round. That’s a much better value to me. I’d take Beckham in the first personally.


I have seen Julio fall into the 2nd, but never Beckham.

Being a Houston native I can really call BS here. Personally I believe Hopkins is going so high because of his floor, not his ceiling. He will play 15 or 16 games, get a minimum of 150 targets, get around 13 yds/catch, and he will have a catch rate of around 55%. That is around 1075 yd floor + some TDs and a reasonable ceiling of 1430 yds + some TDs. Those stats are pretty similar to Julio/Beckham. The TDs are where it gets interesting.

I move to make 2016 an outlier year since the Texans offense had to make changes to the scheme they didn’t want to. I also want to remove his rookie season because of various changes in personnel and coaching. But…I will talk about with and without.

TDs are the hardest metric to predict because so much of it is situational. So let’s take a look at what we can trend with reasonable consistency. How about opportunity, when the Texans are in the red zone Hopkins is targeted about 45% total and 51% with the years I want to use. In the ten zone overall the numbers increase a bit, but last year in the ten zone Hop was targeted 70% of the time. Odell and Julio are around 50%.
Ok, so how does he do when he is targeted? Hop DOES NOT have the best hands. In the red zone you are looking at about 21% of his targets will be TDs. In the ten zone about 42%, but…with my years it jumps to over half. What gives me the most hope is that last season 70% of targets in the ten zone were TDs. This is the offensive system we can expect to see in 2018.
I really believe a good floor for end zone work is 13 targets and 6 TDs.

So that would be a floor of around 85 receptions for 1075yds and 6 TDs, and would place him as a low end WR1. His upside will be 100+ receptions for 1500+ yds and double digit TDs, which would potentially place him WR1 overall.

Now he is much more likely to be closer to his floor than his ceiling, but there is a lot of safety with Hop that you don’t have with Julio or Beckham.

I could be wrong.

Here’s the thing. He could repeat the same stat line and not be a top 3 WR. I believe the stat is that his WR1 2017 season was 12th best WR fantasy season in the last 4 years? That may be off by a bit, but it’s something like that.

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