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Flyers You Gambled On


#1

$1 Lottery Players

I did this last year with Kamara and Thielen. Hit pay dirt so I reserved a few spots for some scratch off glory again. Here are a few I grabbed:

Boston Scott. Short, a little light but very strong and fast and a solid pass catcher. He looked good in PS and was used at times as a 3 downer in college. Ingram is out 4 weeks. They did pick up Gilleslee but I rolled the dice thinking that was more of an insurance policy. Scott is a better Sproles IMO and if Kamara goes down Scott is a the hedge bet to take most of that work.

Courtland Sutton. Great training camp. Not much PS evidence other than one 50 yard grab but he is big, fast and has the ability to at least become WR2.

Tre’Quan Smith. Saints WR corps is shaky outside of Michael Thomas. Smith was money in training camp and held his own in PS. Meredith was the WR2 on paper but he does not look ready IMO. Tre’Quan is known as a ferocious fighter for toss ups and has the ability to block downfield with no concern. CM needs more time. Very serious injury and just think he needs a slower progression into the lineup.

I likely took too many flyers but I took 2 last year and it worked so I took 3 this year. If one pans out that is some serious value. I think I used good reasoning if it does not work out by week 5 I start hitting the waiver wire hard.


#2

Scott is a better… Sproles? It’s cool to take fliers, everyone does it and loves the gamble but be realistic. Scott is not taking passing down work from Kamara. Once Ingram is back, he’s back on the bench. And they just took on Gillislee who is a goal line back. Sproles was one of the most productive scat backs ever to play in the NFL. Scott has yet to play a real down in a regular season game. Let’s not get carried away with the hyperbole.

Like the smith pick up, that battle for the 2nd receiver between him and meredith is going to be a valuable one for whoever wins out.

I love sutton. Was my top ranked WR of the entire class but I don’t see him doing much this year sitting behind DT and Sanders, unless there is an injury. Absolutely love him in dynasty/keeper but not really going to take him in redraft. Keenum is not going to support 3 productive WRs.


#3

I do think Scott is better than Sproles. He is stronger, slightly bigger and just as fast. One of the main issues with Sproles was he would get gunned down from behind. I don’t see Scott having that issue. I do agree though, when MI gets back it’s over with unless they trade MI or injury with Kamara. It’s still not a bad hot dollar throw IMO. Dump him in week 5 and throw away the scratch off.


#4

The line for players who are stronger/bigger/faster than successful RBs in the NFL is longer than your local DMV. Measurables alone isn’t what determines how good or successful someone is in the NFL. Sproles is arguably one of the best and most productive pass catching running backs the NFL has ever seen. I’m going to hold my judgement and see Scott maybe play a down before I make a statement like that.

Not a bad $1 throw though still so have no issues with that.


#5

I snagged Sutton in my dynasty keeper for a $1. I like how DT is on contract year so it could be Sutton’s job next year. Also got Keelan Cole for a ham sandwich… I feel optimistic about him.


#6

Snagging these basement bargains and hitting to me is one of the funnest aspects of auctions. Almost nobody in my league has the balls to do it. Yeah, Boston Scott could be a complete dud. No question. But, if the stars line, he could stick. If he makes some noise in the first 4 games or Kamara gets injured the door just got kicked in. All I can say is I was laughed at for nominating Kamara last year. Nobody is laughing now.


#7

Kamara went for $2 to a Saint’s fan… ughhhh… But yeah I know the feeling on hitting on a winning ticket. I have DJ for $3 and Theilen for $2 so it’s really nice… I kept Wentz and Alex Collins for $1 a piece. So I can practically buy my ticket to the playoffs with all the money I have for auction.


#8

Boston Scott is still available in my league… i haven’t looked into him much to be honest… my Rb’s are DJ Saquan Alex Alf Clement L. Murray… so I dont really have the space to gamble on him.

Correction… he is not available… lol


#9

That’s the thing, these are gambles. Easy playing devil’s advocate on em’. Anybody can do that. That’s not the point. It’s about taking a risk nobody had the guts or vision to even consider or even to play devil’s advocate against themselves. It’s a leap of faith. I could have totally got better bench players. I had the cash but went this direction. If it does not work out I am still in good shape. I have a strong roster and the waiver wire is still there to clean up the mess if there is one.


#10

lol cmon dude. We’re playing fantasy football, not off to war. Everyone takes fliers on guys. It’s just a matter of opinion which one you or others think is best. There’s some that make sense and some that don’t. Last year, plenty of people took fliers on Kamara in the draft. It was one that made sense given the talent level coming out of college and the draft capital/skill set/scheme/fit with him and Payton’s offence. That’s why he was also drafted in the 1st round of a lot of rookie drafts in dynasty. Dude in my home league drafted him as a late round flier and it was his first year playing fantasy. Maybe it’s rare or unique in your league but it’s not uncommon at all in competitive leagues, auction or snake.

Congrats on hitting on Kamara but let’s not pretend like you’re some cerebral visionary and the only one with the “guts” to spend a late $1 flier in an auction draft.


#11

It took guts because I still had a lot of coin left. I could have totally got better rated players. It wasn’t like I was throwing a dart. But meh…if they blow up then I guess it was blind luck again right?


#12

Never said it’s blind luck. But yeah, luck will be a huge proponent of it. Luck always plays a huge part in fantasy. We all have theories and data to support but end of the day, you do have to get lucky. It’s why NFL teams who spend millions on the draft process with a full team of people who do it for a living consistently miss, even on early round talent. If you think that somehow doesn’t apply to you, then the arrogance is even worse than I had originally thought.


#13

Wait…so you had money left in your auction and you left it on the table to take a $1 flier? It’s not that people don’t have the guts to do that, it’s that it’s just bad strategy. You should be leaving your draft with $0, if not you are making a mistake. You can take $1 fliers in auction, but that should be because you’ve invested the rest of your capital earlier in the auction.

I really hope we are just talking about a few dollars here, and that you didn’t leave the draft with 10% + just to show how much “guts” you have…


#14

Slightly over but it didn’t matter. I found so much value last season, it forced bidding wars and cripple banks early. Ended up getting even more value in mid rounds. League records were broken on positions. Will I be able to do that every year? Of course not, just a different approach that I had success with last year.