Full PPR. A week or two ago this was a no-brainer for me in favor of Fournette. But I’m starting to like Caff more and more. I was worried about his usage in the redzone but the team doesnt seem interested in using Anderson much at all. At this point, I can’t see Anderson being any more of a threat to Caff’s workload than Yeldon will be for Fournette. If Caff gets a similar touch total to Fournette, I’m fairly convinced he will outproduce him in full PPR, especially considering Caff should more than double Fournette’s reception total. Change my mind.
Since It’s full PPR it’s a toss up for me. I would lean fournette just because CAR O-line scares me, but I don’t think you can go wrong either way
Fournette’s foot scares me more than CAR’s O-Line honestly. O-Line is very important for certain types of backs but I don’t think it hurts Caff as much as it would a bruiser type… like if Caff and Fournette were to switch teams then I’d lean heavily in favor of Caff.
I’m still in fournette corner. Only thing that has changed is the amount of times CMC will get stuffed lol. Na but for real he got a bump from me in production, but it’s not so drastic that he will all of a sudden out pace fournette. Fournette does catch quite q few balls even if people dont realize. He was on pace for 45 last season. Also on pace for the league leading rusher. Tons of TDs coming his way too. And I’m not horribly worried about his foot. I actually think his weight loss will help with that a lot. CMC Is much closer to him now, just not ahead of him yet in my book.
That’s why I think it a toss up, I think McCaff is going to be about as good as last year. Receiving out of this world (maybe a slight bump because they will throw to him all 16 first couple of games they didn’t utilize him yet) as a runner the same (more touches less efficiency). Founette has the touchdown upside. I don’t think anyone would be surprised to see 13 tds this year. In PPR I think McCaff is safer but Founette has more upside. Depends on how you like to play.
I could see Fournette outproducing Caff on the season but having more highs and lows… I think Caff’s reception total will give him a much safer weekly floor. And I never said Fournette won’t catch the ball… But Caff had 80 receptions and he could easily surpass that this season. Which would give him ~double Fournette’s receptions. In standard or half ppr, it would be Fournette hands down no argument… But full PPR Caff just has the safer floor with fewer risks imo.
Exactly, you don’t need fantasy help you just need to figure how much you want to gamble, man isn’t fantasy fun.
I dunno… having a guy with a floor of 20 Carrie’s a game with 3-4 receptions is pretty strong. That’s a safe floor, with a bit of boom for those TDs he will get. And I know you didn’t say he doesnt catch but it’s a misconception of his, that he isn’t good in PPR. He could end up in the 50s for receptions as well. And honestly I think CMCs receptions go down, not up. When he was the only pass catching option, yeah 80 receptions sounds about right. Now that moore is there, Olson is back, funchess is looking to improve… I’m not saying he falls to the 50s, but I have him around 65-70. Not a huge drop but big enough. The real question is, what do you guys have CMC pegged at for rushes on the year? That’s what I cant figure out. If they use him like they have in the preseason, it’s well over 300 attempts. Buuut I am not going to bank on that. I have him around 225.
Im leaning towards fournette. like the above said his recpetions should be in that 40-50 range (he had 36 recpetions in 13 games). he had about 1300 yards and 10 tds in 13 games as well. A full offseason and losing weight should help him stay healthy. he finished his final collegiate year, started draft prep, and combine, then his rookie season. more time off to prep for his 2nd season should do him some good.
I like both players and think it’s close, but I lean Fournette.
Here’s something interesting I heard about Fournette this week. Last year he had the fastest in-game speed of any player all year. That means by whatever measure they use (radar gun?) he hit a higher speed than any of the speedsters you can think of. That surprised me because he’s strong has heck, but when you put that kind of speed with his power he’s almost unstoppable. He just has to stay healthy and will be a beast.
Caff will have some 6+ catch games easily this year. I would not be disappointed if I started the season with either player. I do like Fournett’s situation as far as how the Jaguar’s defensive strength suits the running game, and the Panther’s possibly shooting it out with teams favors Caff’s usage as well.
It’s a dead even tie for me.
Caff’s carry count is definitely perplexing. Like you said if he gets that full 3 down workload… 300 carries would be the projection… but that does seem like a lot. My biggest thing is I’m not big on drafting guys with injuries… You can hope the foot won’t be an issue but it’s caused him to miss time 3 years in a row now if I’m not mistaken. I won’t bank on him not missing time because he dropped a few pounds. And I see a lot of people really high on Fournette, many putting him as a top 5 RB… but I’ve seen exactly 0 analysis to support an improvement on last season other than “Trust me, he’ll be better.” We can’t expect his workload to go up, that’s for sure… He was relatively inefficient on a per carry basis… he just balanced out a lot of 1 yard runs with a 75 yard TD here and there. I don’t see how we’re expecting more TDs despite him having already been their main option inside the 10 last year… I think 10 is a fair projection though but I’m not about to lock him in for 13+ as a floor. I’m really not sure where the 20 more receptions is coming from either… even if he plays those 3 games he doesnt hit 50+ receptions… and I certainly wouldn’t project that this year with Yeldon expected to have a bigger role in the offense as a CoP/Receiving back. Yeldon gaining a more substantial workload is just speculation but it’s certainly not baseless… he’s been getting an extensive look all preseason and has looked very impressive, gaining praise from both media and coaches alike. And now that I’m looking at it… Andy and Mike both have Caff higher than Fournette in Full PPR. Jason has Fournette 1 spot higher.
He has great long speed because of his power… His lateral speed, burst, and agility is nothing special. IMO
My projections for his receptions is based off of his increase in experience. RBs tend to get more receptions and he was already lookin at mid 40s. If he gets 40s I’ll still be happy. Not gonna lie, you’re not wrong. The injury is concerning. But while he plays, he is a top end talent just from opportunity. I’m not saying he will 0lay 16, but his chances are better. I know weight loss is a hard one to predict because injury is injury. This is just what I believe. I believe he misses just one game. And plays 15 and kills it with his better o line. I cant blame you for wanting CMC. Cause honestly in a PPR dude can kill it. But I prefer the more consistent runner. You make fantastic points though so I cant argue too much. Would just prefer fournette ya know?
Marqise Lee had a brutal knee hit tonight. It didn’t look good at all… I know the discussion is about Fournette, but this most likely increases some of his or Yeldon’s work load. Those other wideouts and Moncrief’s knack for finding the injury report could help or hurt. Bortles better step it up.
Yeah I totally understand. It’s not like I think he’ll bust or anything… when you’re talking about guys in the same tier, you’re just splitting hairs at that point. It’s not like Caff has no downsides. He’s a smaller runner with a worse offensive line. I just really like the reception upside and if he take a step forward in running efficiency (as he was pretty bad last year iirc). They also have a new offensive system and, while I believe in it, new systems don’t always pan out. I think they’ll both, at worst, be perfectly fine lol. Fournette’s workload even if he hits a floor in receptions will still be enough to make him an RB1 despite any “concerns” I might have.
Yep my point exactly. A whole lot of splitting hairs and preferences. Was a good discussion with a lot of good points!