.5pt ppr would you draft Doug Martin or Gillisee?
Good question. I’d probably go Gillislee. Most recent reports are saying he’s the likely starter, and if he were to fill that Blount role than there is tons of upside. He looked great when he had the opportunity in Buffalo. This is one of those decisions that training camp will make much clearer.
gillisee easy. dougie can never seem to stay on the field, and is going to miss the first… 3 i think it was? maybe 4 i cant remember. where on the other hand you have gillislee. and if the patriots have shown us anything so far, its that they want to run the ball this year to protect brady as much as possible. gillislee will be the pace setting and goal line guy. they paid him pretty damn good money they are almost for sure going to use him that way. the only problem… its the patriots backfield. so it could be three games of bliss, followed by no production because they are playing a matchup game. but even then its still an easy lock for me.
Let’s look at the past. Blount had a great year, but people forget he was on that team in 2015, 2014, and 2013. His running style never changed, and in those other 3 years his TD counts combined did not add up to 2016’s.
Gillibear’s floor is a complete waste of a roster spot, and a high pick. I don’t believe his ceiling is Blount’s 2016. In NE there are a lot of mouths to feed, a lot of young talent, and a QB who just loves to throw the ball.
Teach me how to Dougie has been there before, reports are that he is looking great, is guaranteed touches, and if you are drafting Doug you are also drafting Quizz who will be a week to week starter if the muscle hamster goes down.
what you are forgetting is that during those years they were a pass first offense. with the aging brady they have shown they are much more of a run first team now. thats why you see the increase for blount. he went from running the ball 150 time to 300. if you give gill the ball that many times in buffalo he was on pace for 1600 yards, for 27 TDs. lol i am NOT saying that is what he will get. but the patriots saw what he did with so few carries and then they paid the guy. 6 million is a lot to pay a guy you havent even seen run the ball more than 200 times in his career. but billy sees something and by god he is going to use his new toy. he can easily get 1100 for 12 TDs, and maybe 30 receptions if he is lucky. he isnt the best PPR back. i know the patriots backfield of yester year has screwed so many people over, but i really dont think thats what this is now. because brady has a foot out the door. and they are grooming a young QB who needs a strong run game.
That second paragraph about NE can definitely be said about the Bucs too. Tons of mouths to feed, lots of young talent for Jameis to throw to. Lots of pieces in the backfield with Sims, Quizz, and McNichols. I personally think Dougernat at 4.08 is too high, not Gill at 6.05.
One year running the ball more doesn’t mean they are shifting away from a pass-first offense. Before 2016, NE didn’t have an RB go over 1000 since 2012 so for Gillisauras Rex to do it is very unlikely. Tom Brady does not have a foot out the door though I think Lewis is on his way out, White earned more usage and Rex Burkhead has talent to take away carries. For Tampa, while DirtyDoug was on the field, no other RB broke 10 carries.
As far as contracts…Rex has the bigger base and their cap hit is similar.
Note: I am only comparing Gilli to Dougie, personally I am not drafting either.
Youre crazy if you think tom is actually going to play 4 more years like he says. Its why the price for grappy is so high.
And for sure times are changing. They have rushed more last year than the year before by 100 times. And the year before that by 60. And now tom is 40. He might have another year left and billy knows that. So he has to protect his prize as muxh as possible. Im banking on them hitting 500 rushes this year as a team, and easily 250 and up hit gilly.
I will bet you 2018’s UDK that Gilligan’s Island doesn’t get 250 carries. OR WATER BET! Maybe we can make the podcast.
In all seriousness though, while the Pats had 480 carries, only 400 were from an RB. Also same situation, no other RB since 2012 has had even 200 carries. I am not saying it won’t happen, but the data doesn’t support that trend.
I don’t disagree with your Tom Brady thoughts, but while he is there he will play his way. I do feel like he is one injury away from retirement.
oh im all game for a water bet my friend! lets do this ill internet shake on it and everything.
Hear that @mike, we need the official seal of approval! , how is there not a shake hands emoji?
i found this, its kind of close haha
Well then you have a deal sir!
Tommy’s getting up there in age, last year they ran Lagarette the Blount which was a change from traditional Patriots running schemes. I think the Pat’s are going to try to preserve their boy, and run more. Just a hunch, and I’m pretty good at fantasy football. Gillisee demonstrated cheap potential last year. I’d say his ceiling is way higher than Martin’s basement, Martin has potential to be a 14-17 carry per game guy, but he has the potential to be usurped completely by Leadership getting tired of his crap and rolling with anyone of their other talented backs. Mike G’s basement isn’t as deep IMO. Both have high potential upsides, I’d feel safer with an aging Tom and more opportunities in the red zone. Both have tons of WR options to kind of negate the 1/2 PPR discussion. I’d roll Mike G in the flex over Martin depending on where I could get him, but if Dougies super cheap come draft day, I’d probably take both.
Truth be told, I see Gillislee getting around 200 carries and maybe 30-40 catches, but I also think that’s enough to beat Martin. I just don’t buy Martin getting back close to where he was.
Agreed, n Martin won’t be the workhorse most think either.
I literally want nothing to do with the Patriots backfield. With the exception of Blount last year and Ridley in 2012, no RB has had more than 800 yards since 2011. They spread the running game too much.
I’ll take the chance that Doug Martin is the same Muscle Hamster from his rookie year and 2015.
Agree with the take here about Gillislee’s floor. I’ve been burned too many times by Patriots running backs to see this objectively. Gone are the days of Corey Dillon.
Believe you should go with Gillislee - If you do take Martin make sure you grab Jacquizz as well
I have had a lot of time and done a lot of research since I first posted in this thread. Since then, I still believe teach me how to Dougie gets a large workload and is a productive weapon this season. Plus Quizz is going really low still, you draft both and your points per RB slot will still be similar. I still believe Gillibear doesn’t see a lot of usage outside of the Red Zone.
The new question I am considering, is the red zone usage enough to justify his ADP? I have got to be honest, I think it does. I have only recently been able to break down RZ efficiency and Gillibear’s is head and shoulders above anyone else’s. Inside of the 20, Gilli scored a TD on almost half of his attempts. He was also perfect from the goal line, every time he got the ball inside the 5 he scored first try. He is now in a better situation, and only needs a fraction of Blount’s usage to create the same results. And by fraction, I mean less than half.
I officially change my recommendation from Dougie to Gilli.