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Green or Adams


#1

Second year of my keeper, have the 10th pick and it looks like ill have the choice of Aj or Davante Adams at the turn. Plan on taking jerick McKinnon with the other pick. (Seems early i know but most quality guys are kept). Who are you leaning towards? Aj or Adams?

Keepers are
Cook (3)
Hopkins (4)
Hunt (9)
Watson (15)

Ready for another footclan title


#2

Davante Adams for us. He has way better Quarterback Play on what will be a bounce back year for A Rodge. The Fresno State product all day at this point in their respective careers.


#3

Im still a believer in Green. Was once a monster, and I think he will be again this year. I gotta go Green.


#4

Adams for me. I feel like he will get way more TDs, Rodgers is just so much better.


#5

Green and it should be that close. People insist on cutting an pasting Jordy Nelson’s stats into Adams 2018 box score. I’ve posted most of this before, but I’m going to keep posting it until people get it:

There is next to no path for Adams to get the kind of workload that true top end guys get. Aaron Rodgers has targeted a WR more than 140 times exactly twice, and both were Jordy Nelson, a much, much better player with whom he had a freakish and well documented connection. And that happened twice. In 9 years.

And even if Adams did get that kind of workload, there’s no evidence that he could deliver the same yardage as Nelson. Nelson’s career catch % is 65.7% and career ypr is 14.3 (expected yardage of 1315 yards if he gets 140 targets). Comparatively, the best years of Adams career were 63.2% (2017) and 13.3 (2016) (expected yardage of 1176 yards if he gets 140 targets). So not only would he have to have an outlier season for an Aaron Rodgers WR, from a target perspective, he’d also have to be a more efficient player than he has ever shown himself to be. All while facing #1 corners every game for the first time.

Now look at Green:

Per 16 games:
Targets: 148.8
Rec: 87
Yards: 1286 (14.79 ypr)
TDs: 8.6

That’s what you want to see, from a volume standpoint for a locked an loaded WR1, and frankly, the talent levels of the two players isn’t close.


#6

Looks like i have a tough decision, Bengals fan too so I’m biased to Aj but its just frustrating watching Andy getting the ball to Aj, can’t imagine his ceiling on a better offence with a slightly better quarterback, Adams is also a red zone king with one of the best quarterbacks of all time. Tough.


#7

Yeah just remember Green has done it for longer, where Adams hasnt really shown that report with Rogers yet… Good luck sir! =o)


#8

In a keeper league I’d lean Adams (younger, better QB) since this is his first year as the true #1 you’re almost guaranteed his best season as a pro.


#9

What? Care to support claim, because I don’t think there’s much in the way of evidence for that correlation.


#10

Yeah please help me understand how someones first year as a true #1 makes it guaranteed its their best season as a pro?


#11

You’ve got 120+ targets from Jordy that have to go somewhere. Adams has averaged 11 TDs a season over the last two seasons and he’s shown that he has Rodgers trust. He put up relatively good stats last season despite having the ball thrown to him by arguably the worst QB in the league in Brett Hundley. Green is the safe pick. Adams could have a higher ceiling at this point in their respective careers.


#12

And they don’t have to go to just (or even largely) Adams. In fact, Rodgers history suggests they won’t.


#13

Water bet Adams has better season than green !


#14

Water bet gladly accepted


#15

Who are the targets going to go to? Cobb? Geronimo? I think it’s safe to say Adams will be the biggest beneficiary to Jordy leaving. Graham? Rodgers doesn’t seem to love throwing to the TE. I may be biased though I had AJ Green last season and it was a little frustrating to watch. Didn’t feel like he had over 1000 yards.


#16

Yes, Cobb and Allison. Both of them will see a bigger uptick in targets. I know people think Cobb is done, but go look at his numbers last year when Rodgers was there. They’re a lot better than you think.

Likewise, Allison has been productive whenever given the opportunity to play significant snaps with Rodgers.

And again, Rodgers does not have much of a history of locking in on one receiver. There are two outlier years of Nelson, but that’s 2 in 9 years, and are literally the only examples in Rodgers’ career.

Regarding Green, keep in mind that it was literally the worst year of his career in a year where nothing went right for the team. And he was STILL WR10. He’s a monster, as safe as they come, and still has massive upside.


#17

While I don’t agree with you on McKinnon (and we don’t need to continue that conversation in this thread lol) I’m right with you on Green.

While I think Adams is poised to have a good season, Green is one of the safest picks at the WR position… he’s as close to a sure thing for 75-80 receptions, 1,200 yards and 11 TDs across a 16 game season as you’ll find outside of AB, OBJ, and Hopkins.

Adams has a similar ceiling but a much lower floor. If I got stuck with Adams I’d be okay with it, but I’d take Green there all day if I had to choose between both.


#18

Exactly. Adams is a solid 2nd rounder. Green is a great 2nd rounder.


#19

The worst part about operating my blog is that the guys I draft with tend to use my stuff against me in our leagues… AJ is one I haven’t talked about much but I LOVE this year… He and Demaryius Thomas are getting NO love despite being two of the most consistent target getters in the league over the last 5 or 6 seasons.