Green and it should be that close. People insist on cutting an pasting Jordy Nelson’s stats into Adams 2018 box score. I’ve posted most of this before, but I’m going to keep posting it until people get it:
There is next to no path for Adams to get the kind of workload that true top end guys get. Aaron Rodgers has targeted a WR more than 140 times exactly twice, and both were Jordy Nelson, a much, much better player with whom he had a freakish and well documented connection. And that happened twice. In 9 years.
And even if Adams did get that kind of workload, there’s no evidence that he could deliver the same yardage as Nelson. Nelson’s career catch % is 65.7% and career ypr is 14.3 (expected yardage of 1315 yards if he gets 140 targets). Comparatively, the best years of Adams career were 63.2% (2017) and 13.3 (2016) (expected yardage of 1176 yards if he gets 140 targets). So not only would he have to have an outlier season for an Aaron Rodgers WR, from a target perspective, he’d also have to be a more efficient player than he has ever shown himself to be. All while facing #1 corners every game for the first time.
Now look at Green:
Per 16 games:
Yards: 1286 (14.79 ypr)
That’s what you want to see, from a volume standpoint for a locked an loaded WR1, and frankly, the talent levels of the two players isn’t close.