Guice trade

Just got done with a start up dynasty draft.

I have a guy wanting Guice off of me but I’m not sure his value. Would it be worth trading Guice for Ingram, 1.9 and 2.2?

I’d do that.

I would make that deal.

I’ve got Guice and yeah I’d move him for that package.

Yeah I would be down for that trade

Yes I’d be happy with that deal. I think Ingram and guice will have similar fantasy seasons as I believe he’ll be used in a committee at least part of the season.

I am VERY surprised at all the “yes’s.” Ingram has 1-2 years left of RB2 value, Guice is starting off his career at the same value with probable top RB2/low end 1 future value. Meanwhile, rookie picks (I assume for this 2019 class) are not that great because of the defense heavy draft.
Clearly I’m in the minority, and I very well might be wrong; but, I’d want Guice in this deal.

This year: Guice = Ingram
Next year: Guice >/= Ingram
Next 5 years: Guice >>> Ingram
And this year’s rookie class is only ehhh

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I would keep Guice.

@michael_pounders The reason I’d take the Ingram side is not because I prefer Ingram over Guice (for the reasons you stated), but rather having Guice’s value split into three pieces gives me two shots at landing a guy with solid trade value while bringing in a RB2 to use this year. According to your chart, it’ll be at least 2-3 years before you see a significant difference in fantasy points between Ingram and Guice right? So why not accept the “temporary” replacement in Ingram and get two shots at landing a draft day steal?

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Mainly because I see Ingram as a guy with RB2 ceiling but could fall out of relevance completely as his floor. Meanwhile, I see Guice as an RB2 floor with RB1 ceiling. Then, because this rookie draft isn’t the best, the 1.9 and 2.2 don’t sway me in that direction. My evaluation is that Guice’s value is more than Ingram and the gap is more significant than the 1.9 and 2.2 in this particular rookie class. Like I said initially though, I’m clearly in the minority and admit that I must be overvaluing Guice or undervaluing the picks.

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I’m with @michael_pounders 100%. I agree with his valuations of Ingram as a rb2 ceiling and Guice as a rb1 ceiling with rb2 floor. And maybe time will prove otherwise, but every indication points to this being a very weak draft class at the skill positions. Late first round/early second round rookie picks already have a pretty high bust rate, and with this particular group you are going to have to not only increase your bust expectancy but also lower the possible upside.

Most likely outcome is as follows:

Year 1: both Ingram and Guice are rb2s, neither rookie is fantasy relevant

Year 2: Guice is a rb1/2, Ingram is maybe an rb2, being challenged by a younger back, and maybe one of those draft picks is a low end flex consideration

Year 3: Guice is a rb1/2, perhaps solid rb1. Ingram is out of the league or at best a veteran backup. One of those draft picks is a decent flex play.

That’s how I see it. Me, I’ll take the 21 year old blue chip running back over a guy turning 30 this year and a couple of dart throws.

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I traded a 1.02 and 2.10 for Guice. I was also 2 bottles of wine deep at the time :slight_smile: This was also a dynasty league and I still have 2.02.

My 2 cents:

Derrius Guice, at this time, is only a prospect. No NFL snaps. I find it extremely hard to project him as an RB1. Especially on Washington - a not great team and with AP still on the roster. Don’t forget about the possibility of Bryce Love being on the roster in the future…

These are not necessarily my rankings, but I don’t see Guice cracking this list.
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I’m surprise with the Y2 and Y3 projections. I play this game with the mentality “we are not smarter than we think we are.”

The 1.09 today equates to Deebo Samuel, Parris Campbell or JJ Arcega-Whiteside. Pick your favorite. You may not like those specific players but they do carry value. The NFL told us so.
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With the 2.02 you could pick between Darrell Henderson or Damien Harris.

Mark Ingram is a proven back on a run first team. Paired with the picks, in my opinion, is a tremendous amount of value gained.

You think Campbell weill fall that low? I have him as my 2nd or 3rd WR off the board. Pretty much between him, Metcalf, and Deebo.

Yes, I’ve got him there once already. Maybe it will change in the next couple weeks.

Current consensus I’m seeing:
1 - Jacobs
2 - Harry
3, 4 - Sander/Montgomery
5 - AJ Brown
6 - Metcalf
7 - M Brown
8, 9 - Campbell/Samuel

And in any draft I could see TJ Hockenson or Fant slipping in before 8/9.

I hope that stays the case and I can move back. I have Sanders and Hollywood lower, and Deebo and Campbell higher