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Gurley's Schedule


#1

Just wanting people’s opinions. I have Gurley in my league and I keep hearing experts talk about trade him if you can because of his schedule, but I don’t see that. I am not sure those experts are looking at statistics instead of names. They name teams like Houston, Seattle, New York, and Jacksonville. The names sound tough but if you look at the actual statistics they are all in the bottom half of the league in giving up yards to RB with Seattle and New York being 30th and 32nd respectively. Gurleys avg. rushing defense for teams he will play are currently is better than Hunt or Cooks. In fact, Gurley only plays 3 more teams currently ranked in the top 10 in rushing defense and plays 5 in the bottom 10. They defenses have an average ranking of 18. I would be interested in your thoughts. Thanks!


#2

Gurley owner myself so I am interested. Did a little research myself after seeing this. Based on the first three weeks, using ESPN standard PPR scoring, Gurley plays against five more teams ranked in the top 10 in FPPG allowed to running backs and two in the top 15 in FPPG allowed to running backs. His playoff schedule (weeks 13-16) he plays two teams in the top 10 and two in the top 20. Outside of New Orleans and Dallas all other opponents are ranked in the top 20. Overall the opposing teams average to just about 14th in FPPG allowed.

I do agree with the overall rushing yards number allowed to running backs averaged to about 18th which isn’t too bad, but if we are looking at the fantasy points it’s a little less appetizing.


#3

Awesome feedback, thanks! So after reading your reply i dug a little deeper to check on the FPPG to RB for those teams, and I found very interesting things for some of those teams. Let’s Look at NY, JAX, Seattle, Houston. The numbers are very telling.

NY- Has played Phill, Detroit, and DAllas. We all know we dont want to play any RBs from philly and Detroit unless we have to as RB 2s or flexes. Then they gave up 104 yards to Elliot on a bad night.

Seattle - GAve up 14 pts to Murray, 124 yards to Hyde, and 100 total yards and TD to Montgomery

Jacksonville - Balt and Houston have less than impressive RB situations atm and they gave up 100 yards and TD to Henry.

Houston - NE and Cinci both are just conglomerates of RBs so no feature backs and then when they face a feature back in Fournette they give up 100 yards and a TD.

So what I see is that everyone of these teams does OK against committtee RB teams but gives up 14+ points to teams with feature backs in standard scoring. Its much higher in PPR. Which shows GUrley “should” (we all know how should works :slight_smile:) do well.


#4

I also looked up Philly and Arizona and they fall in line with the rest of the teams.

Ari - 2 games against Det and Ind enough said. Only game with a feature back was Dallas and Elliot had 100 total yards and a TD.

Philli- 2 games against NY and Det. And the only game against a feature back was KC. ( i dont really need to tell you how any team faired against Hunt so far. )


#5

Good stuff! That all definitely makes sense and makes me feel a little better about maybe just staying put with him. He’s so involved in the offense so far that even in minus matchups, the volume should be there as well. The only other thing is when Lance Dunbar gets back he could vulture some catches, but if Gurley keeps showing as he has that shouldn’t be a big deal.


#6

Great thread! I appreciate all the fact checking.

My situation is this: my league rival (after beating him 3 times in the semi-finals in the past 3 years) offered me Hopkins and Fournette for Gurley. The offer is still on the table and I have been contemplating this for the longest.

Any thoughts?


#7

What is your current WR situation? I like the trade overall if you need WR help. Fornette is a legit feature back and Hopkins just gets a
Stupid amount of targets each week. Also is this a standard or ppr?


#8

Current WRs: Fitz, Parker, Hurns, Maclin
Current RBs: Bell, Gurley, Crowell, Riddick, Coleman, Smallwood